2013~2014年中国—东盟货物贸易数量分析与预测———年度分析系列报告之十一

2013年，中国与各贸易伙伴的贸易增速放缓，在中国的前四大贸易伙伴中，中国与东盟的贸易额增速最快。2013年，中国与东盟的进出口贸易额为4436．1亿美元，同比增长10．9％，中方顺差445．3亿美元，顺差额为2012年的5-3倍。中国与东盟4个新成员国的贸易增势强劲，与6个老成员国的贸易增速缓和，中马贸易额首次超过1000亿美元。一般贸易、外资企业、机电产品仍占主体地位，但局部比重较上年稍有下降。数据检验分析显示，中国、日本、韩国与东盟的贸易保持稳定的协整关系、关联程度。预测2014年的中国～东盟经贸合作仍具有较大持续增长和优化的空间与势头。

A Quantitative Analysis on Goods Trade of China-ASEAN in 2013 and Its Prediction in 2014

In 2013, the trade growth rate between China and its trade partners slow down, while the trade between China and ASEAN increased fastest among its four largest trade partners. In 2013 ,the total trade between China and ASEAN was 443.6 billion, increased by 10.9%, China＇ s trade surplus was 44.5 billion, 5.3 times of the surplus in 2012. The trade between China and the four new ASEAN member countries witness strong growth, while the growth rate of the trade between China and the six main ASEAN members kept steady, the trade of Sino-Malaysia surpassed 100 billion for the first time. The original trade, trade undertaken by foreign invested enterprises as well as the trade of mechanical and electrical products are still the main body of trade, while their occupation fell. Analysis by econometrics test shows that the trade series were of China-ASEAN, and its counterpart of Japan and Korea with ASEAN, have stable co- integration relationship and interact each other. Basing on the statistical model, we predict that the China-ASEAN trade in 2014 will keep a sustainable growth rate and retain optimized space and trend.