中国国库最优现金余额的测算与评价——基于Baumol模型扩展的理论分析与实证研究

近年来我国国库现金余额急剧上升,出现了两难并存的局面--高额国库现金闲置的巨大时间价值损失和国库现金波动对央行货币政策造成显著影响.国库最优现金余额的准确测算是解决这些问题的前提和基础.对此,从理论上扩展Baumol总量现金管理模型,构建了国库最优现金余额模型.研究发现,国库最优现金余额与政府年度财政支出、市场年度收益率、年度借款成本、债券与现金的转换成本等变量之间具有平方根关系.运用我国政府国库现金和相关指标进行实证分析,得出我国国库最优现金余额在831.59亿元～910.51亿元之间;并以此为标准评价近年来我国国库现金状况.研究发现近年来我国政府存在近万亿的闲置国库现金,测算表明闲置国库现金的时间价值损失平均每年在100亿元以上.高额闲置国库现金从一个侧面反映了我国国库财务管理的低效率,迫切需要提高政府财务效率水平.

Modelling and Estimating the Optimal Cash Balances of China's Treasury Based on Baumol Extended Model

Government faced some serious problem with the cash balances of the treasury in China increased considerably in recent years.As far as these problem were concerned,we should model and estimate the optimal value of the treasury cash.We did some research on this topic in this paper.Firstly,we modelled the optimal cash balances based on Baumol extended model and found that the optimal cash balance in treasury had square not relationship with the other variable parameters.Secondly,we did positive analysis with the data in China and found that the optimal cash balances of the treasury in China was between 83.159 billion yuan and 91.051 billion yuan.The treasury cash balances in China was much more than the optimal value.This meant that our government had a low effective financial management and poor treasury institution.So it is the time to reform the treasury cash management institution in China.