日本养老金危机与政党走势——以2003-2007年国会选举为视角

2003—2007年日本国会选举,在自民党与民主党两大保守政党的竞争态势下,养老金制度改革与危机成为影响日本政党走势的重要原因之一。一个深层次的问题是,政党支持结构已经由传统模式向业绩投票模式转换,可是,"中位投票者"偏好的政策构想,基本相同的养老金制度致使投票人无所适从;投票人希望候选人成为能确保投票人偏好的政策代理人,然而,5 000万份年金记录丢失,致使养老金危机转向政党危机。构筑让国民信赖的养老金制度是走出政党危机的路径。日本养老金危机对中国有重要借鉴意义。

Japan's Pension Crisis and Tendency of Political Party on the Basis of election of parliament from 2003 to 2007

During the election in Japan's parliament from the year of 2003 to 2007,reform and crisis of pension system has become one of the key factors which affects the tendency of political party,under the competition between two conservative parties,Free Democratic Party and Democratic Party.Author,on the basis of public choice,is going to disclose the relations between the tendency of political parties under circumstance of the parliament election and the movement of pension policy.A deeper problem is that structure of party support has transferred from traditional mode to retrospective voting mode,but the policy frame of median voter preference makes voters in uncertain circumstances.Voters hope candidates can be policy speakers for their preference,however,political crisis has been formed since 50,000,000 pieces of record disappeared.The way,leading parties out of crisis,is to construct a reliable pension system,which is significant for China's reference.