人民币国际化背景下汇率对工业行业就业的影响——基于跨境贸易结算的影响因素视角

将跨境贸易人民币结算比重引入劳动力市场动态均衡模型,推导出汇率影响就业的全新路径,并利用2000-2018年中国工业行业面板数据进行实证分析。研究发现:通过进出口产品结构贸易路径,汇率对行业总体就业的正向影响最显著,其次是经由汇率变动预期路径,而汇率通过净出口指数路径对就业的负向影响较微弱。人民币汇率对不同行业就业的影响产生差异的根源是不同行业进出口产品结构及产品异质性的差距导致在汇率变动的不同情形下,行业间跨境贸易人民币结算的水平不同,从而造成外贸企业对劳动力的需求具有差异。并且,技术特征及贸易来源地特征是造成行业间就业水平差异的显著因素。

The Impact of Exchange Rate on Industrial Employment under the Background of RMB Internationalization——Based on the Influencing Factors of Cross-border Trade Settlement

This paper introduces the proportion of import and export in cross-border RMB settlement into the dynamic equilibrium model of labor market,deducing new trade paths for the impact of exchange rate changes on employment and uses 2000-2018 China industrial industry panel data for empirical analysis.The results show that:through the new trade path of structure of import and export products,the positive effect of exchange rate on the overall employment of industrial industry is the most significant,followed by the new trade path of expectation of exchange rate change.In contrast,the exchange rate has little negative impact on industrial employment through the traditional net export index trade path.The root of the difference in the impact of RMB exchange rate on employment in different industries is that the difference in the structure of import and export products and the heterogeneity of products in different industries leads to different levels of RMB settlement in cross-border trade between industries under different circumstances of exchange rate changes.Thus,foreign trade enterprises have different demand for labor force.Moreover,technical characteristics and trade source characteristics are significant factors that cause the difference of employment level between industries.