Crime and economic instability: the real security threat from North Korea and what to do about it

This essay examines the domestic and international causationof the socioeconomic transformation that has taken place inthe DPRK since the 1990s. In the process the essay demonstrateshow the DPRK socio-economy has become an enabling environmentfor crossborder illicit economic activity. The argument is thatthere is little evidence that the DPRK government fully comprehendsthe potential problems for its own society from the lack ofregulation of market transactions and therefore not much likelihoodthat it is currently able or willing to prevent spillover ofthe numerous grey areas of North Korean marketization into thesocio-economies of its neighbours. What is therefore neededis positive interaction by foreign economic interlocutors, includinggovernments and international institutions. A policy of 'intelligentintervention' that combines closely monitored but relativelysubstantial economic interaction integrally linked to a programmeof market institution-building in the DPRK, along with a policyof military deterrence, could best contribute to preventingthe growth of economic and political instability in NortheastAsia.