“四方安全对话”的新发展及前景探析

自2017年美、日、印、澳“四方安全对话”重新启动以来,其虽然只开展了少量且缺乏实质性内容的行动,却引发了大量讨论和高度的政策关注。纵观这一对话的发展演变可以看出,四国之间的某些共识构成了其重启后的显著特点,如更明确地将目标指向中国、以“民主价值观”作为秩序构建的出发点、服务于美国“印太战略”的需要以及开始将关注重点延伸至发展和治理领域等。基于这些新特点,“四方安全对话”在近三年来的实践中提升了四国之间的战略联系和协同作战能力、从议题领域和地理范围两个维度拓展了四国的战略合作、在外交上释放了四国团结一致的政治信号,并强化了美国主导的地区安全结构,从而对“印太”地缘环境产生了不容忽视的影响。尽管从组织内部以及次区域战略环境角度分析,“四方安全对话”的前景仍有很大的不确定性,但考虑到这一新的地缘战略安排针对中国的目标指向性,以发展的眼光看待并审慎地予以应对,是中国从外交上塑造地区和平秩序、维护国家安全和发展利益的应有之义。

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue:Developments and Prospects

The resuscitated Quad forum has aroused growing strategic attention and lively debate among major regional actors,although it has produced little substantial progress in the military and security domains since 2017.The evolution of the forum has been driven by a number of factors,the most prominent of which are rising concerns about China’s growing power,a renewed focus on democratic values,implementation of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy,and the need to devote more resources to nontraditional challenges like development and governance.In practice,the Quad forum has,in the past three years,increased strategic association and coordination,expanded its diplomatic reach in the region,and worked to strengthen the American-led security architecture.Although the grouping’s trajectory and strategic relevance remain uncertain in the years ahead,Beijing still need to pay close attention to its development and step up engagement with its members because regional actors have increasingly viewed China as their chief external challenge.For Beijing,its national interests will be best served in a generally peaceful and stable environment where regional competition will not rule out necessary cooperation with other major players.