危机下的“潜规则”：试析冷战后的中美危机管理——以1996年中美台海危机为例

冷战后,中美关系的定位发生转变,这使中美关系中的双边危机时有发生。但是中美危机的性质又促使双方在危机管理中恪守一定的“潜规则”,以避免危机的进一步升级。剖析1996年中美台海危机,在危机处理中双方所共同默守的“潜规则”是:中美在危机中的战略意图:双方目标的相容性、有限性;必须让对方清楚地了解自己的意图;沟通渠道的通畅、有效是双方了解对方意图的必要保障;双方对各自的行为有所克制,自我约束,留有余地;在危机管理手段上两手(斗争和谈判)并用;危机决策机制的科学化。在历经数次危机的磨合之后,中美危机管理体制仍亟需完善。

Latent Rules Under Crisis: A Case Study of China-U.S. Crisis Management In the Post-Cold War Era——1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis as An Example

After the Cold War,with the transformation of the China-U.S.relations,the bilateral crises happened more frequently than before.However,the nature of these crises makes both sides obey some "latent rules" to avoid the escalation of the crisis.As a good case to illuminate those "latent rules," the 1996 Taiwan Strait case shows us that by obeying the "latent rules" in the crisis,China and the U.S.finally succeeded in dealing with the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996.Those "latent rules" include the stratagem intent of China-U.S.,the consistency and limitation of the bilateral targets,making intentions clear to the other party based on effevtive communications;both sides exercising self-control and self-discipline to make allowance,using struggle and negotiation together in crisis management,establishing scientific crisis decision-making mechanism.Though several crises have been solved,China-U.S.management mechanism needs to be perfected.