拜登执政与中美战略竞争走向

拜登政府继承了特朗普政府视中国为主要战略竞争者的认知,竞争是拜登政府对华思维的核心概念、对华政策的组织原则以及处理对华关系的基调。但在竞争方式上,拜登政府与特朗普政府有着重要区别,如更加注重提升美国自身的竞争力,更多利用盟友体系和多边机制,强调"巧竞争",不排除与中国的必要合作等。拜登政府的对华战略竞争将受到一系列内外因素的制约。在新的形势下,中国将更好地应对来自美国的战略竞争,对一个竞争性越来越突出的双边关系善加引导和塑造。未来四年,中美关系发展主要存在竞争加合作型、竞争主导型和竞争-冲突型三种互动模式,两国应着力避免竞争-冲突型关系模式,争取竞争加合作型关系模式,确保良性竞争主导型关系模式。

China-US Strategic Competition under the Biden Administration

Inheriting the Trump administration’s perception of China as the primary strategic competitor of the US,competition remains the core concept of the Biden administration’s thinking of China,the main principle of US policy-making on China,and the fundamental logic of managing China-US relations.However,there are differences between the two administrations in terms of approaches.The Biden administration attaches greater importance to improving America’s competitiveness and adheres to the path of"smart competition"by taking advantage of the alliance system and multilateral institutions,while being open to necessary cooperation with China.Nonetheless,the strategic competition against China by the Biden administration is subject to both domestic and external constraints.In the new situation,China will properly handle the competition and more actively shape the increasingly competitive bilateral relations.In the coming four years,there are three potential scenarios of China-US relations,respectively featuring competition plus cooperation,dominated by rivalry,and rife with conflicts.The two countries shall avoid conflicts,ensure interaction led by positive competition,and jointly seek for a relationship characterized by both competition and cooperation.