计量经济分析能够“发现”理论吗？——兼论实证主义或证伪主义的逻辑缺陷

基于逻辑实证主义来构建经济理论会遇到严重的“休谟问题”：一方面，当检验结果与理论一致时，不能简单地认定理论被证实了，因为还有更多的事实并没有得到检验；另一方面，当检验结果与理论发生差错时，也不能简单地以为原先的理论错了．因为经济理论所基于的条件根本是不可重复的。其实，经济学理论的发展并不是建立在一次性证实或证伪的基础之上，而是随着大量新事实的出现而导致原范式或纲领被不断修正，或者以原纲领“退化”为标志的，经济理论的发展体现在两个方面：逻辑的完善性和问题的解决度。

Can Econometrics "Discover" the Economic Theory-On the Defect of Logic in Positivism or Falsificationism

There is a Hume’s puzzle when we educe a theory based on logical positivism. On one hand, we can not deem a theory has been proved when the outcome of test matches the theory, since there are much more facts have not been tested. On the other hand, we can not deem a theory has been denied when the outcome of test does not match the theory, since the condition as the foundation of an economical theory can not been reduplicated. As a matter of fact, the theory of economics can not been proved or denied by once; on the contrary, the Paradigm or programme can been modified only under the condition of a great deal of appearance of new facts. Furthermore, the vitality of economical theory is embodied on two aspects: the consummate degree of logic and the elucidative degree of problem.