Immunity and Susceptibility in Illicit Drug Initiation in Israel

We model the initiation process into cannabis and hard drugs using long-term survivor analysis. This approach hypothesizes two sub-populations: a population that is immune to drugs, who will never use them no matter how long they live, and a population which is susceptible to drugs for whom it is a matter of time until they begin to use drugs. We use data for Israel to test competing hypotheses concerning the timing of drug use initiation and the determination of susceptibility. Cigarettes do not significantly affect immunity to drugs, but they tend to speed up the rate of initiation for those who smoke them. This implies that anti-smoking policy may only delay drug use initiation without affecting immunity. Finally, drug initiation in Israel is not explained by variables that are traditionally associated with criminality.