Drunk driving and the ecological fallacy: Comments on a paper by Phillips,Ray, and Votey |
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| Institution: | 1. Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, 69978, Israel;2. Teachers College of Columbia University, New York, USA;3. UCL, Institute of Education, London, 20 Bedford Way, WC1H 0AL, UK;1. Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Tampere Univeristy, Korkeakoulunkatu 8, PL 541, 33014, Tampereen yliopisto, Finland;2. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Tekniikantie 21, P.O. Box 1000, 02044, Espoo, Finland;3. School of Management, Strategic Management, University of Vaasa, Tervahovi D303, Wolffintie 34, 65200, Vaasa, Finland;4. Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics, P.O. Box 35, FI-40014, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland;1. Department of Educator Preparation and Leadership, College of Education, University of Missouri – St. Louis, 1 University Blvd., St. Louis, MO, 63122, USA;2. College of Education, University of Missouri, Columbia, USA;1. Department of Operations and Supply Chain Management (O&SCM), National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Powai, Mumbai, 400087, India;2. School of Business Administration, Penn State Harrisburg, 777 West Harrisburg Pike, Middletown, PA 17057-4846, USA |
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| Abstract: | Phillips, Ray, and Votey (1984a) used a model of traffic casualties incorporating three independent variables—miles driven, rainfall, and alcohol consumption. They applied it to British data to attempt to determine (1) whether the British Road Safety Act of 1967 had an impact on road casualties and (2) the relative contribution of the three variables to road casualties. They accomplished the first objective using interrupted time series analysis, but fell victim to the ecological fallacy in their interpretation of the second. |
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