Russia: A Country with an Unpredictable Past

Russia is a key player in the Kyoto process, and the fate of the Protocol itself heavily depends on future developments in the country, in particular in its energy sector. This article analyses the contradictory and complex relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, gas exports to Western Europe and the energy security of Russia. The paper reviews emerging trends in the energy sector of Russia that will have a long-term impact on these three parameters and assesses the possible influence of these trends on the implementation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution in Russia. Proceeding from the latest developments in the Russian energy scene, the author tries to forecast how Russia will integrate into the international community in the energy sphere. The study concludes that gas export commitments to Europe will be met despite the serious problems in the domestic gas sector, that energy saving in Russia is the most feasible way of finding a compromise between the three parameters, and that enhancing the energy security of Russia might have rather controversial consequences for Europe.