Likelihood ratios for complex mixtures with relatives |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Chemistry, Biotechnology and Food Science, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB), Aas, Norway;2. Department of Forensic Biology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway;1. Laboratorio de Genética Molecular de Cruz Vital – Cruz Roja Ecuatoriana Quito, Ecuador;2. Laboratorio GENES Ltda, Medellin, Colombia;1. Armed Forces DNA Identification Laboratory, Armed Forces Medical Examiner System, United States;2. American Registry of Pathology, United States;3. Flinders University, Australia;4. National Institute of Standards and Technology, United States;1. IPATIMUP, Institute of Molecular Pathology and Immunology of the University of Porto, Portugal;2. Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto (FCUP), Portugal;3. Center of Biological and Natural Sciences, Federal University of Acre (UFAC), Rio Branco, AC, Brazil;4. DNA Diagnostic Laboratory (LDD), State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), RJ, Brazil;1. Department of Forensic Genetics, West China School of Basic Science and Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, PR China;2. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Forensic Medicine, Institute of Forensic Sciences, Ministry of Justice, Shanghai 200063, PR China |
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| Abstract: | Likelihood ratios used for the analysis of complex DNA mixtures depend on a number of modeling assumptions and parameter estimates. In particular, the LR does not give information about the relative weight of the separate contributors for hypotheses conditioned on several contributors. An alternative is to evaluate the observed LR with respect to likelihood ratios expected under the defense hypothesis. Further, a p-value corresponding to the LR can be calculated. The p-value is the probability of observing a LR equally large or larger than the one observed, if the defense hypothesis is true. In this paper we investigate the distribution of likelihood ratios for mixtures with drop-in and drop-out and related contributors. Disregarding a plausible close relative of the suspect as an alternative contributor may overestimate the LR against a suspect. |
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| Keywords: | Likelihood ratio Mixture Kinship |
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