Simulated approach to estimate the number and combination of known/unknown contributors in mixed DNA samples using 15 short tandem repeat loci

The calculation of likelihood ratios (LRs) for DNA mixture analysis is necessary to establish an appropriate hypothesis based on the estimated number of contributors and known contributor genotypes. In this paper, we recommend a relevant analytical method from the 15 short tandem repeat typing system (the Identifiler multiplex), which is used as a standard in Japanese forensic practice and incorporates a flowchart that facilitates hypothesis formulation. We postulate that: (1) all detected alleles need to be above the analytical threshold (e.g., 150 relative fluorescence unit (RFU)); (2) alleles of all known contributors should be detected in the mixture profile; (3) there should be no contribution from close relatives. Furthermore, we deduce that mixtures of four or more persons should not be interpreted by Identifiler as the LR values of 100,000 simulated cases have a lower expectation of exceeding our temporal LR threshold (10,000) which strongly supports the prosecution hypothesis. We validated the method using various computer-based simulations. The estimated number of contributors is most likely equal to the actual number if all alleles detected in the mixture can be assigned to those from the known contributors. By contrast, if an unknown contributor(s) needs to be designated, LRs should be calculated from both two-person and three-person contributions. We also consider some cases in which the unknown contributor(s) is genetically related to the known contributor(s).