Industrialisation and the Sustainability of China’s Agriculture*

The paper argues that the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture is constrained by the continuing adverse effects of the policy of industrialisation. This has resulted principally in an excessive loss of capital from the agricultural to the industrial sector, a loss of strategic natural resources and infrastructure from agriculture and severe environmental degradation associated directly and indirectly with the development of industry. Quantitative links are established between changes in the growth of grain production and the progress of industrialisation in the pre and post reform eras. It is argued that a fundamental adjustment to the relationship between industry and agriculture is needed and that a more favourable socio-economic environment will be required if China is to develop a sustainable agricultural sector within the context of a national autarky objective in the grain sector.