第一代独生子女婚姻生育选择及对未来人口和家庭结构的影响——兼与庄渝霞商榷生育政策调整的可行性

随着第一代独生子女进入婚育年龄,产生大量的双独家庭、单独家庭,不同家庭类型的变化将引起政策生育率自然回升,如果考虑到有部分家庭放弃生育二孩,则意愿生育率会低于政策生育率。本文从独生子女婚育选择的角度出发,使用相关调查数据分析,发现由双独家庭所产生"4-2-1"家庭的数目受政策微调生育的影响较小,政策微调可以大幅度降低一孩家庭的比例,二孩家庭比例的增加无疑会降低家庭风险,且不会大规模地增加出生人口数量,因此,中国应当对生育政策进行微调,增强人口结构的合理性。

The Effect of the First Generation of Only-Child' s Marriage and Birth Desire Made on the Future Population and Family Structure--To Discuss the Feasibility of Family Planning Policy with Zhuang Yuxia

As the first generation of only-child are stepping into marriage and child rearing age,the number of"one only-child family"and"both only-child family"are growing,causing a rebound of fertility rate. Considering that some families may give up the chance of second child birth,there would be a decline in the rebound of fertility rate.By analyzing relevant survey data,this article takes the choice of the only-child marriage and child rearing as the point of view,and argues that the number of"4-2-1 family",which...