PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN

The author identifies three key factors: the resurgence of the Taliban, the leadership of President Karzai and the regional context. The war in Iraq was a costly distraction and it was a mistake to focus nation-building on elections rather than on the strengthening of proper institutions. Economic development, especially agriculture, has not received sufficient attention, with the result that drug production has increased. But there is an increasing recognition that there needs to be some form of conversation with the Taliban. They are now a more sophisticated military organisation, but still an extremely unsophisticated social and political entity. They do not have the answers to Afghanistan's problems. There are many other groups with a stake in the future of the country so any comprehensive negotiation will be very complicated. But it is a positive element that Afghanistan is a tribal society with an enormous capacity for forgiveness.