Alternative visions of security in Northeast Asia

Although no security structure exists yet in Northeast Asia comparable to Europe’s NATO, there is movement toward new arrangements as the century ends. Unresolved cold war disputes on the Korean Peninsula and between China and Taiwan as well as controversy over an appropriate Japanese role in the twenty-first century combine to sustain general regional support for a continued American force presence in Japan and Korea. Nevertheless, two potential developments could erode that presence over time: (1) the unification of Korea, after which U.S. troops on the peninsula might be unacceptable and (2) a change in American budgetary priorities that could significantly draw down forward deployments in the western Pacific. In anticipation of these changes, Northeast Asian states are beginning regional security dialogues.