2010～2011年中国—东盟货物贸易数量分析与预测——年度分析系列报告之八

2010年中国与东盟的贸易摆脱了金融危机的困扰,再次回到高增长的轨道,增速居于中国各大贸易伙伴前列且年内较为平稳;中方从东盟的进口额与速度均高过对东盟的出口额与增速,逆差扩大;除中菲贸易外,中国与其他东盟国家的贸易额都达到历史最高值。双方贸易的增长面宽、增长点多,体现出中国—东盟自由贸易区的良好开局。数据检验分析显示,中国、美国、日本、韩国与东盟的贸易具有协整关系,相互促进,中国—东盟自由贸易区亦惠及亚太区域贸易。结合定性分析与数学模型,预测2011年的中国—东盟经贸合作将保持较高的增长势头。

A Quantitative Analysis on Goods Trade 0f China-ASEAN in 2010 and Its Prediction in 2011

In 2010,the trade between China and ASEAN countries got rid of the negative effects of financial crisis and came back to a high growth rate,which moving in front of China’s other trade partners and stayed relatively stable during the year.Both China’s imports from ASEAN and its growth rate were higher than its exports and exports’growth rate,the deficit of China with ASEAN became larger.Except for the Sino-Philippines trade value,the export and import between China and other ASEAN countries reached their peaks in this year,with a wider growth rage and more growth points,showing a good start of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area.Analysis by statistic test shows that the trade series of China-ASEAN,and its counterpart of US,Japan and Korea with ASEAN,have co-integration relationship and interact each other,China-ASEAN Free Trade Area also benefit the Asia-Pacific region trade.It is predictable that the China-ASEAN economic cooperation in 2011 will keep its high growth rate.