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Normative Forecacasting: An Application of Stochastic Models to Crime Rates
Authors:STUART JAY DEUTSCH  PHILLIP E. PFEIFER
Affiliation:1. Georgia Institute of Technology;2. University of Virginia
Abstract:Normative forecasting is a procedure designed to measure future intensity within a given region compared to the future level within a larger region—the population as a whole. A procedure for normative forecasting is developed which incorporates empirical stochastic models and their forecasts along with a scaling procedure. A substantive example which uses reported monthly crime occurrence data compares the future intensity of crime within one city to a population base composed of several similar major U. S. cities.
Keywords:
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