‘Faulty’ fiscal illusion: examining the relationship between revenue diversification and tax burden in major US cities across the economic cycle

We investigate how revenue diversification affects tax burden in major U.S cities as it interacts with fiscal balance reported in the general fund over the economic cycle. We find that more diversified cities have higher tax burdens, and that this effect is strengthened when cities maintain a large surplus in the general fund. We also test models of revenue diversification's impact on tax burden using data from 1995 to 2010, separated into good fiscal years (1995-2001, 2004-2007, 2010) and bad fiscal years (2002-2003, 2008-2009). Model estimates show that greater revenue diversification leads to higher tax burden in bad fiscal years but this outcome is not found in good fiscal years. Cities seek greater revenue diversification when they are experiencing economic recessions. This study contains important implications for local financial management and contributes to the literature on revenue diversification and tax burden.