区域经济一体化如何突破安全困境 ——以南亚区域合作联盟为例

20世纪90年代以来，伴随着发展中国家区域经济一体化的再度兴起，地区冲突和动荡的安全局势也为区域经济一体化带来了消极影响。作为摆脱安全困境的一种有效手段，区域经济一体化在抑制成员国间冲突升级、发挥和平效应时会受到不同条件的制约。作者从现实主义的逻辑出发，以南亚区域合作联盟为例，分析了区域经济一体化与区域内成员间冲突形势之间的互动，认为区域经济一体化进程未能产生和平效应的根本原因在于，它未能通过机会成本机制提高成员国的收益预期，高层互动机制和争端解决机制在信息沟通和冲突管理方面的作用也受到很大的制约。冷战的结束、经济全球化的发展为区域经济一体化和平效应的发挥提供了有利的环境和条件，只有进一步强化区域经济一体化的制度水平，扩大和深化区域经济一体化的程度和范围，增加多议题之间的联系，强化高层互动机制和制度的独立性，才能更好地发挥区域经济一体化制度的和平效应，尽快走出安全困境。

Ways out of Security Dilemma for Regional Economic Organizations: A Case Study of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)

The past two decades has witnessed both the resurging regional economic integration (REI) of developing countries, and regional conflicts and turbulence which have brought negative influence on REI. Though an effective means to break out of its security dilemma, REI can only prevent conflict escalation and promote peace among member states in restricted conditions. Starting from a realist logic and based on a case study of SAARC, this paper argues that SAARC owes its minimized regional peace effect to the fact that, by means of the opportunity cost mechanism, it failed to raise the expectations of its member states for regional integration high enough to give up the means of force, and the effects of the regular high-level meeting and the dispute resolution mechanism have been much compromised in information exchanges and conflict management. To better achieve the peace effect of SAARC and resolve the security dilemma, it is essential tobroaden the scope of economic integration, strengthen the high-level meeting and enhance the independence of institutions