族群战争的爆发：一个广义理论

基于两个分析性的创新：对社会事实秉持以机制为基础的理解路径和对动态交互影响的强调，作者提出了一个有关族群战争爆发的广义理论，并利用两种元机制——安全困境/螺旋模型和群体间–群体内互动——作为“元综合器”，将战争的影响因素与冲突行为的直接驱动力联系起来，对散布在现有文献中的众多因素和机制加以综合，形成了一个更具整合性且动态的族群战争理论。该理论不但整合了既有文献中已经识别的众多因素和机制，而且揭示了先前被隐藏或被忽视的因素、互动和机制，由此指明未来在这些方向的探究将是硕果累累。

The Onset of Ethnic War: A General Theory

This paper develops a general theory about the onset of ethnic war, with two analytic innovations: a mechanism-based approach toward social facts and an emphasis on dynamic interactions. With two meta-mechanisms, namely the security dilemma/spiral model and intergroup-intragroup interactions, as meta-synthesizers, the paper brings together numerous factors and mechanisms scattered in the current literature and advances a more integrative and dynamic theory of ethnic war by linking factors with main causes of conflictual behavior via the two meta-mechanisms. The resulting theory not only integrates a multitude of factors and mechanisms identified within the existing literature but also reveals previously hidden or neglected factors, interactions, and mechanisms, thus shedding new light for future studies.