地理的不确定性:关于俄罗斯、欧洲和亚洲的四个论题

针对俄罗斯归属于欧洲还是亚洲的问题,传统上公认的解说有:俄罗斯是一个欧洲国家;俄罗斯不同于亚洲;俄罗斯是一个欧亚国家。这些观点各有道理,但需细化。下面几个论题将有助于对俄罗斯属性的进一步认识:1)俄罗斯不仅是一个欧洲国家,而且是一个欧洲帝国。2)激进的欧亚主义者不反对俄罗斯的欧洲性,但反对认为俄罗斯是一个帝国。3)欧亚主义者宣称俄罗斯—欧亚不是亚洲的一个部分。欧亚主义者将欧亚理解为与欧洲或者亚洲完全不同的文明。4)欧亚主义者重新将俄罗斯—欧亚视为一个潜在的殖民地,而俄罗斯的使命是反殖民的领导者。     

后危机时代俄罗斯与独联体国家的贸易关系分析

金融危机的发生严重影响了俄罗斯与独联体国家的贸易关系,本文通过贸易结合度指数和区域定位指数来分析俄罗斯和独联体国家的贸易关系变化,以及独联体国家向俄罗斯出口产品的市场地位。通过传统的引力模型和加入目标解释变量后的引力模型,发现贸易双方的经济规模、人口规模和以物理距离表示的沉没成本等传统变量均是影响俄罗斯贸易流量的因素。金融危机后,虽然俄罗斯的对外依存度增加,但是与独联体国家的贸易往来相对其他国家明显地表现出离心力,金融危机显著降低了独联体国家与俄罗斯的贸易关系,但自由贸易的签订,例如欧亚经济共同体,可以显著改善双方的贸易关系。     

国家转型视角下的欧洲民族国家研究

"民族国家"是诞生于欧洲的国家形态①,主要通过专制君主国转型和封建帝国解体而来。欧洲民族国家兴起过程中,"民族"起到整合国民认同、赋予国家合法性的作用。但从根本上说,"民族"只是建国的理由,民族国家在欧洲兴起的深层原因是推翻封建制度。欧洲民族国家的出现是历史进步,但建构过程也使世界付出沉重代价,两次世界大战均与其有关。同时,由于"民族意识"具有持久性,欧洲民族国家建成后,多数仍然面临"民族问题"困扰。当代欧洲,民族国家正在发生新的转型:各国的民族构成由单一向多元发展,国家主权行使方式在欧洲一体化和全球化中改变。本文认为,民族国家建构、欧洲一体化和全球化是一个进程的三个方面。到目前为止,民族国家仍是多层治理体系的核心与合法性的来源,不应得出其弱化的结论。     

杜金新欧亚主义地缘政治思想评析——以“多极世界理论”为例

俄罗斯新欧亚主义源于多种思想流派,其中俄罗斯当代思想家亚历山大·杜金不断从西方政治思想和俄罗斯传统思想中获取他所需要的反自由主义成分,发展出独具特色的新欧亚主义,其新欧亚主义思想实质上是一种地缘政治思想。进入21世纪,杜金将其新欧亚主义赋予了"后现代"色彩。杜金的所谓"多极世界理论",接续他的新欧亚主义大陆地缘政治思想的主旨,即"大陆-海洋"两种文明之间的对立,在此基础上提出建立全球化时代的新国际秩序设想。帝国模式是杜金给俄罗斯自我认同的定位,也是其"欧亚联盟"设想的组织模式和"多极世界"理论的基础。从本质上来说,杜金新欧亚主义地缘政治思想是一种谋求世界霸权的大俄罗斯民族主义思想。     

关于苏联、民族国家与"人"-"地"关系的对话

施展:冯老师,我最近写了两篇关于俄罗斯的文章①,文中有些非常规性的设想,可能是我作为一个非专业的俄罗斯研究者因无知而无畏吧.但也正因此,心中难免惴惴,想听听您的批评意见. 冯绍雷:这两篇文章我读过了,都还比较有意思.你的第一篇文章探讨了俄罗斯的帝国性,这是一个长久的话题了,它与俄罗斯内在的巨大矛盾性形成了一种共生关系--我注意到你也引述了别尔嘉耶夫的观点,俄罗斯内在的矛盾性正是他孜孜求索的谜题.你这篇文章有意思的部分在于最后关于"欧亚合众国"的设想,设想通过这样一种政体结构,化解掉俄罗斯的帝国性与现代性之间的矛盾张力.严格来说,这种探讨并不是一种严谨的经验性研究,但是作为一种充满想象力的政治学思考,从这个角度来论述还是值得肯定的.     

从欧洲化到苏维埃化的跨欧亚帝国治理:关于欧亚主义的论述

1920-30年代,有一批俄侨知识分子务实面对苏维埃化了的俄罗斯,力图重建关于俄罗斯帝国——苏维埃国家之认知,因而出现了欧亚主义运动。以特鲁别茨柯依为代表的欧亚主义思想家们,并非在海外闭门造车,而是立足于复杂的历史经纬,具体论述了欧化治理方式的不合时宜性,包括俄罗斯文化和欧洲文化之差别、俄罗斯东正教与欧洲基督教之不同、俄国地理位置的跨欧亚性等。他们还以此来证明苏维埃制度的合法性,肯定其终止欧化进程的必要性和意义。俄侨知识分子的构成复杂,关于欧亚主义的相关论述也充满了矛盾。数十年间,欧亚主义思潮在苏俄境内默默无闻,可是在后苏联时代,随着白银时代和俄侨文化遗产的再发现,以及俄国融入欧洲的过程困难重重,它却在俄联邦各阶层又产生了广泛的影响。     

俄罗斯地缘政治思想的演变及影响

地理空间对俄罗斯民族和国家而言,一直有着特殊的决定意义。自立国以来,不断进行领土扩张就成为俄罗斯国家历史的一部分。纵观历史,俄罗斯地缘政治态势变动的频度和幅度,在世界大国中可以说是最为激烈的。正是横跨欧亚的独特地理位置和不断变化的地缘政治现实,促进了俄罗斯地缘政治思想的形成和发展,并对俄罗斯国家的对外政策和发展走向形成影响。冷战结束后,从普里马科夫的多极化构想到普京的欧亚战略,伴随着对国家利益的讨论和认识,俄罗斯对外政策的调整,还是回归到了欧亚大陆本身。普京的"大欧亚伙伴关系"计划与中国的"一带一路"倡议有很多契合点,拓展了两国合作空间,但全面欧亚伙伴关系的设想,还需要深入研究和系统评估。     

论《古史纪年》中的古罗斯帝国形象构建

古罗斯编年史汇编《古史纪年》,可谓俄罗斯民族群体想象认同中的重要一环。其被视为构建与维系古罗斯帝国形象的初始文学文本,以史书形式展现了古罗斯国家的民族生态、权力更迭、对外交往与宗教视野,呈现了罗斯族裔实现民族融合与国家建立的历史图景。《古史纪年》试图赋予古罗斯帝国以神性起源、合理版图及其在世界历史中的自我定位,以此构建初始的古罗斯帝国形象。     

特鲁别茨科伊的欧亚主义思想

特鲁别茨科伊是欧亚主义的创始人和主要理论家之一。他在《成吉思汗的遗产》等一系列著作中阐发了欧亚主义思想:反对以诺曼——日尔曼民族主义为代表的西方主义,淡化俄罗斯人与其他斯拉夫民族的关系,强调蒙古人200余年统治对俄罗斯的巨大影响;认为俄罗斯思想是用拜占廷东正教重新论证的蒙古国家思想;俄罗斯是成吉思汗遗产的继承者,担负着带领“欧亚世界”各民族统一这一世界的使命。     

东南亚的政党与国家

当欧洲的封建王朝承认其领土内拥有共同文化和历史的人民可以自组国家的时候,政党就变得日益重要。这些政党尽管代表不同的利益集团,但都致力于把自己的国家建设得更加富裕、强大和统一。随着英国、法国、荷兰等帝国势力的撤退,这一模式被带到世界其他地方。在东南亚,帝国势力撤退后留下的国家既没有共同文化也没有相似历史,因此,许多由当地政治领袖创建的政党就试图利用国家机器来建构民族国家。本文主要考察这种"引进"的民族国家模式在东南亚如何催生各种各样的政党,这些政党又为何需要强大的国家来塑造未来的民族。各种经验表明,在民族国家中能发挥影响力的政党,对正努力将自己看作新生民族的人们及其生活,可能起着分化与破坏作用。     

从文化共同体到后古典民族国家:德国民族国家演进浅析

长期封建割据造成德国民族国家的形成晚于英、法等传统西方国家。其建立民族国家的路径是先有民族,后有国家。德国民族国家是建立在由血缘、历史、语言、文化等要素构成的"文化共同体"的基础上,这一文化共同体同时也构成了德国民族认同的核心要素。受到历史和地缘政治因素的影响,德国民族国家的发展道路较为特殊,这也决定了其融入西方过程的曲折与漫长。20世纪90年代,两德重新统一后,德国与其他欧盟成员国一样进入后古典民族国家形态,将主权部分地让渡给超国家共同体。德国民族国家目前需要解决的是欧盟治理结构中的"新德国问题"。     

Pakistan: Crisis of a Frontline State

For more than 50 years, Pakistan has functioned as imperialism's “frontline state.” The military has remained the country's dominant political player and the basic precepts of bourgeois democracy remain conspicuous by their absence. Since the military coup in October 1999, the configuration of power in Pakistan has become subject to serious internal contradictions, in large part because of the “war on terror” and the loss of public prestige of the military. These contradictions have intensified in the wake of a lawyer-led street movement sparked by the military top brass' dismissal of the country's chief justice in March 2007. Since then the country's most well-known politician, Benazir Bhutto, has been assassinated and her Pakistan People's Party has swept to power in general elections held in February 2008. However, the crisis of the frontline state has not ebbed, and the oligarchic system of power remains subject to rupture.     

State Developmentalism Without a Developmental State: The Public Foundations of the "Free Market Miracle" in Chile

If export orientation is a goal in a sustainable development strategy, this study argues that public interventions at the sectoral level in a variety of markets can produce economic reorientation that pursues international comparative advantage faster and at lower cost than free market forces can. Pervasive failures in information, credit, input, distribution, and insurance markets can render strictly market-based adjustment both slow and costly. Although Chile's export boom and high growth rates have been associated with its free market economic policies, this article, based on a comparison of the fruit, fish, and forestry sectors, contends that new forms of public intervention were crucial catalysts in shaping a sustained export response.     

The New Europe: a Federal State or a Confederation of States?

In its search for new forms of federal arrangements appropriate to its contemporary situation, Europe is again at the cutting edge in developing new political arrangements for the postmodern epoch. With the collapse of Westphalian statism, those new arrangements are perforce federal, but not in the manner of modern federations. Instead they are postmodern confederations and various kinds of confederal arrangements. The European Union is rapidly becoming the model post-modern confederation, while other arrangements linking the states of contemporary Europe represent other forms of confederal arrangements. All fit into the spirit and form of globalization and are helping to provide economic globalization with a political and constitutional anchor. Several questions remain, however. How can the European Union become or remain federal rather than hierarchical in orientation, given the pulls of traditional European statism? How will the new confederalism accommodate the various arenas in existing European national state federations?     

Sustainable Fiscal Policy in a Federal State: The Swiss Example

Using a small theoretical model it is first shown that it is reasonable to limit public deficit and debt in relation to GDP in the long‐run. Then we describe fiscal institutions called ‘debt brakes’ which are designed to prevent public deficit and debt from going off course. We present some models which have been applied in some Swiss cantons, especially in the canton St. Gallen, and the respective institution recently introduced at the federal level. Altogether, the models in the different cantons are quite successful. At the federal level we still have to wait before we can evaluate the results. Finally, we describe how the problem of a possible bail out of cantons and local communities is solved in Switzerland. Taking all results together, we come to the conclusion that by choosing appropriate institutions federal countries are rather more able to perform a sustainable fiscal policy than unitary states. In this process, budgetary restrictions and/or fiscal referenda play prominent roles at all levels. On the other hand, a special stability pact between the different governmental levels does not seem to be necessary.     

The Australian Welfare State: Has Federalism Made a Difference?

This paper examines the historical development of the Australian welfare state with a view to identifying the role that Australia's federal constitutional arrangements have played in shaping that development. Theoretical paradigms have been unanimous in their prognoses: that federal states are likely to be slow in developing welfare state programmes and typically spend less on them than unitary states. But recently it has been argued that federal institutions may have a “ratchet effect” of slowing down the pace of change, irrespective of its direction. The purpose of this chronological account of significant stages in the development of the Australian welfare state is to use the unfolding of historical events — far too rich in nuance and detail to be captured in quantitative modelling — as a test‐bed for establishing whether, and, if so, to what extent, federalism has impacted on the trajectory of Australian welfare state development.