Predicting Recidivism with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version

Recidivism was evaluated in 178 male inmates administered the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and scored on the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version (LSI-R:SV) 1–55 months before their release from prison. Age, prior charges, the LSI-R:SV total score, and the PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT), Proactive Criminal Thinking (P), and Reactive Criminal Thinking (R) scores served as predictors of recidivism in follow-ups spanning 1–53 months. Age, prior charges, and the PICTS GCT and R scales consistently and incrementally predicted general recidivism (all charges), whereas prior charges and the PICTS R scale consistently and incrementally predicted serious recidivism (more serious charges). Although these results support the predictive efficacy and incremental validity of content-relevant self-report measures of criminality like the PICTS, they also indicate that the effect is modest and in need of further clarification. One area requiring further investigation is the potential role of the PICTS, particularly the R scale, as a dynamic risk factor.     

Incremental Validity of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version in Predicting Disciplinary Outcome

A group of 136 male inmates housed in a medium security federal correctional institution were followed for a period of 24 months for evidence of disciplinary infractions (incident reports) after completing the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and being scored on the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV). Age, prior incident reports, the PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score, and the PCL:SV total score were included in a series of negative binomial regressions and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses of three increasingly more serious outcomes: total incident reports, major incident reports, and aggressive incident reports. Results indicated that the PICTS GCT score and PCL:SV total score were incrementally valid predictors of all three outcomes, with the strongest effects occurring when more severe incident reports were predicted. On the other hand, only the PICTS GCT score and Proactive Criminal Thinking (P) scale produced more than one significant ROC finding.     

The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version as Predictors of Official and Self-reported Disciplinary Infractions

A total of 159 male inmates screened with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version (LSI-R:SV) were followed for a period of 24 months for evidence of disciplinary infractions (incident reports). Eighty-three of these inmates also furnished a self-report of disciplinary infractions occurring during the 24-month follow-up. The PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score and LSI-R:SV total score correlated with and accurately identified the presence of an officially recorded disciplinary infraction, an officially recorded severe disciplinary infraction, and a self-reported disciplinary infraction but only age and the GCT score achieved incremental validity when age, GCT, and LSI-R:SV were included as predictors in the same probit regression or loglinear survival equation.     

Effect of a longer versus shorter test-release interval on recidivism prediction with the psychological inventory of criminal thinking styles (PICTS)

The General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) was correlated with recidivism data obtained on 284 released male federal prisoners. The sample was divided into those inmates who had been released within 24 months of having completed the PICTS (shorter test-release interval; n = 138) and those inmates who had been released more than 24 months after having completed the PICTS (longer test-release interval; n = 146), and recidivism was measured by subsequent arrests and convictions accrued during a 6- to 78-month follow-up. Although the GCT score successfully predicted release outcome in the shorter test-release interval group, it failed to predict release outcome in the longer test-release interval group. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Postdicting arrests for proactive and reactive aggression with the PICTS Proactive and Reactive composite scales

The criminal arrest histories of 262 medium-security male inmates were correlated with the Proactive (P) and Reactive (R) composite scales of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS). As predicted, only scores on the P scale correlated significantly with prior arrests for proactive aggression (robbery, burglary) and only scores on the R scale correlated significantly with prior arrests for reactive aggression (assault, domestic violence) when age, education, race, and marital status were controlled in a series of negative binomial regression analyses. The P and R scales also predicted the total number of arrests received by participants in this sample after these same four demographic measures were controlled. The implications of these results for the construct validity of the PICTS composite scales and for matching offenders to interventions are discussed.     

Predicting reconviction using the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles with English prisoners

Purpose. The purpose of this study was to investigate the utility of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) in predicting reconviction in a sample of male prisoners. Method. The PICTS was administered to 174 incarcerated male offenders at the point of their release from prison. Reconviction data were collected at a 2‐year follow‐up. Results. Of the eight PICTS scales, only superoptimism differed significantly between reconvicted and non‐reconvicted prisoners, even when age and number of previous convictions were controlled for. Reconvicted offenders scored significantly higher on superoptimism, indicating a more criminal attitude. This finding was supported by a sequential logistic regression, where superoptimism contributed significant predictive power to predicting reconviction beyond a model containing age and number of previous convictions. Conclusions. The results are compared with previous research using the PICTS to predict release outcome. The utility of the PICTS as a predictor for release outcome is discussed.     

Using the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles with English prisoners

Purpose. This study considers the use of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) within an English prison population. Method. The reliability and validity of the PICTS scales were investigated, and scores compared with data from an American prison population. Results. The results suggested that the PICTS was functioning in a similar way in both populations, although the English population's scores were higher. The calculation of test‐retest change scores over the duration of 6‐12‐month sentences allowed the sensitivity of PICTS scales to change over time to be analysed, an aspect of the PICTS functioning that had not previously been examined. This analysis over time suggested that evenwhen the effect of age was controlled for, changes were occurring over the duration of the sentence. Conclusion. The potential of the PICTS as a measure of change, aswell as assessment, is discussed.     

Effect of test administration set on the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS)

The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) was administered to 160 male prisoners on admission to a medium-security federal correctional facility. A total of 106 of these inmates completed the PICTS a second time 6 months later in a routine follow-up of the intake PICTS; the other 54 inmates completed the PICTS a second time approximately 6 months later during the initial session of a psychological group. Results showed that inmates participating in the psychological group were less defensive and endorsed more criminal thinking items on the second administration of the PICTS, whereas inmates participating in the routine follow-up were more defensive and less likely to endorse criminal thinking items on the second PICTS. Despite a general increase in the magnitude of PICTS scores for program participants, the overall pattern of scale elevations (correlations between scales and high-point pairs) was comparable across the two groups.     

Testing the construct validity of the PICTS proactive and reactive scores against six putative measures of proactive and reactive criminal thinking

This study tested the construct validity of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) Proactive (P) and Reactive (R) scores. The layperson version of the PICTS was administered to 277 (65 male, 212 female) undergraduates and correlated with putative measures of proactive and reactive criminal thinking. The hypothesis that P and the proactive scales would correlate ≥.30 in zero-order correlations and regression equations controlling for R, whereas R and the reactive scales would correlate ≥.30 in zero-order correlations and regression equations controlling for P found support in this study. This corroborates the construct validity of the PICTS P and R scores and indicates that self-report measures of moral disengagement and neutralization, on the one hand, and impulsivity and risk taking, on the other hand, may serve as effective proxies for proactive and reactive criminal thinking, respectively.     

Use of the psychological inventory of criminal thinking styles to predict disciplinary adjustment in male inmate program participants

The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) was administered to program participants in two different federal prisons-a medium-security federal correctional institution and a maximum-security penitentiary-who were subsequently followed for a period of 24 months for evidence of disciplinary adjustment problems. Disciplinary outcome was measured by the total number of incident reports, the number of nonaggressive incident reports, and the number of aggressive incident reports received during the 24-month follow-up. Negative binomial regression was used to test the relationship between the eight PICTS thinking style scales and three disciplinary outcome measures because the total and nonaggressive disciplinary report distributions showed signs of overdispersion. The only PICTS thinking style scale to achieve statistical significance in this study was the Cutoff scale that successfully predicted total, nonaggressive, and aggressive incident reports in both samples.     

Predicting institutional adjustment with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles composite scales: Replication and extension

Purpose . The principal aim of this study is to determine whether the Proactive (P) and Reactive (R) composite scales of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) are capable of predicting institutional adjustment in a group of medium security prison inmates. Method . The P and R composite scales were correlated with dichotomized and count measures of total, non‐aggressive and aggressive incident reports (IRs) received during a 2‐year period in a group of 219 male medium security US federal prisoners. Results . The R scale predicted dichotomized total, non‐aggressive, and aggressive IRs (point biserial correlations, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, classification analyses) and all three classes of count IRs (negative binomial regression) when age, education, race, marital status, confining offence, prior disciplinary record, program completion and time in the institution were controlled. The P scale, on the other hand, predicted dichotomized total (point biserial correlation, classification analysis) and non‐aggressive (point biserial correlation, ROC) IRs and the total disciplinary count when age, education, race, marital status, confining offence, prior disciplinary record, program completion and time in institution were accounted for in a negative binomial regression. Conclusion . The modest but consistent relationship observed between the R scale and subsequent disciplinary infractions suggests that R may well serve as one component of a larger assessment battery for identifying inmate's at risk for future disciplinary problems.     

Evaluation of the cognitive intervention programme ‘A New Direction’ targeting young offenders in Sweden

The treatment of offenders has changed from focusing on risk management to also emphasizing salutogenic experiences as a protective factor. The programme ‘A New Direction’ involves cognitive intervention combining the above-mentioned approaches to treat young criminals and young persons at risk of developing a criminal lifestyle. In evaluating this programme, 61 participants from the Swedish social services and youth care facilities were divided into two treatment groups and two control groups. All participants were subjected to pre- and post-measurements using two questionnaires: the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and the Sense of Coherence (SOC-13). The two treatment groups followed the programme during one week and 9–30 weeks, respectively, with the control groups measured at approximately the corresponding time intervals. The results show reduced PICTS from high to low levels and increased SOC only for the multi-week treatment group. Although the recidivism analysis revealed a greater reduction of convicted offences in the multi-week treatment group compared with the control group, the finding is tentative because of small sample sizes. To conclude, cognitive intervention shows promise for reducing criminal thinking patterns and increasing sense of coherence, which may have beneficial effects on the behaviour of young offenders.     

Prevalence of Criminal Thinking among State Prison Inmates with Serious Mental Illness

To examine the prevalence of criminal thinking in mentally disordered offenders, incarcerated male (n = 265) and female (n = 149) offenders completed measures of psychiatric functioning and criminal thinking. Results indicated 92% of the participants were diagnosed with a serious mental illness, and mentally disordered offenders produced criminal thinking scores on the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and Criminal Sentiments Scale-Modified (CSS-M) similar to that of non-mentally ill offenders. Collectively, results indicated the clinical presentation of mentally disordered offenders is similar to that of psychiatric patients and criminals. Implications are discussed with specific focus on the need for mental health professionals to treat co-occurring issues of mental illness and criminality in correctional mental health treatment programs.     

The use of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles with English young offenders

Objectives. This study examines the psychometric properties of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) with a sample of imprisoned English young offenders. Method. The reliability and validity of the PICTS scales were investigated, and changes in scores on the PICTS scales over a 6‐month period were analysed. Results. The findings suggested that from a psychometric perspective the PICTS scales were not performing as well with young offenders as with adult prisoner samples. The indices of reliability and validity were of a moderate level. Test‐retest scores calculated over the 6 months showed little change on the PICTS scores. Conclusion. The use of the PICTS scales with young offenders is discussed with reference to previous research with adult offenders in England and North America.     

The impact of pre-treatment responsivity and treatment participation on violent recidivism in a violent offender sample

This study assessed whether pre-treatment responsivity (psychopathy, motivation to attend treatment, denial and minimisation of offending behaviour, and feelings of guilt or shame) predicted violent recidivism and/or moderated the effectiveness of a violence intervention programme. Participants were 114 male violent offenders who were referred to a structured violent offender group treatment programme; 84 offenders commenced the programme. Results showed that treatment completion did not have a significant main effect on recidivism but that psychopathy scores moderated the effects of treatment. Offenders with high scores on the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) who were rated as having good engagement with treatment, or who completed treatment, had similar violent recidivism rates compared to offenders with low PCL:SV scores. In contrast, offenders with high PCL:SV scores who dropped out of treatment or were poorly engaged had significantly higher rates of violent recidivism. These findings indicate that treatment effectiveness could be enhanced, and greater reductions in recidivism achieved, if programmes find ways to engage and maintain psychopathic offenders in treatment.     

Violent and sexual offences: a validation of the predictive quality of the PCL:SV in Switzerland

Used to diagnose psychopathy, the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) is still rarely used in the German-speaking part of Europe. The aim of the present study was to conduct a first-time evaluation of the predictive validity of the PCL:SV for sexual and violent recidivism in the German language area. PCL:SV scores for 96 violent and sexual offenders in Switzerland were assessed. These assessments were based on data taken from the forensic psychiatric expert opinions. The scores were then compared to subsequent recidivism as shown in the official criminal records. ROC analysis indicated a cut-off score of 14 for maximized overall predictive accuracy. Consistent with various results from past research in North America and Europe, the PCL:SV yielded a satisfying predictive accuracy (ROC area=.69). This degree of accuracy demonstrates the PCL:SV's usefulness for risk assessment of sexual and violent delinquency in the Swiss cultural and German language area.     

Measuring criminal thinking styles: The construct validity and utility of the PICTS in a Dutch prison sample

Purpose. Criminal thinking and thinking styles are important areas in the assessment and treatment of offenders. The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS: Walters, 2005) is designed to assess such criminal thinking styles. In the current study, the associations between criminal thinking styles on the one hand, and criminal histories, personality traits, and mental disorders of Dutch prisoners on the other, were explored. The aim is to test the reliability and construct validity of the PICTS in a population of male Dutch detainees. Methods. A sample of 191 randomly selected male prisoners of a large Dutch correctional institution were assessed by means of the PICTS, NEO‐PI‐R, and the MINI psychiatric interview. Prison inmates with very severe psychiatric symptoms and severe disruptive behaviours were excluded. Results. The psychometric qualities of the PICTS were found to be fair‐to‐good. The construct validity of the PICTS was supported by various convergent results with the criminal antecedents of the offenders, as well as with the scores on the scales measuring personality traits and psychiatric disorders. Conclusions. The associations between criminal thinking styles on the one hand and personality traits, antisocial personality disorder, and mental disorders on the other were rather strong. The current results suggest that the PICTS may be a valid and useful tool for assessing criminal thinking styles.     

Predicting Institutional Adjustment and Recidivism with the Psychopathy Checklist Factor Scores: A Meta-Analysis

This study explored the validity of the PCL/PCL-R factor scores in predicting institutional adjustment and recidivism in forensic clients and prison inmates. Forty-two studies in which institutional adjustment, release outcome (recidivism), or both were assessed prospectively with the PCL/PCL-R yielded 50 effect size estimates between the PCL/PCL-R factor scores and measures of institutional adjustment/recidivism. A meta-analysis of these findings disclosed that Factor 2 (Antisocial/Unstable Lifestyle) correlated moderately well with institutional adjustment and recidivism, whereas Factor 1 (Affective/Interpersonal Traits) was less robustly associated with these outcomes. Direct comparisons of the mean effect sizes attained by Factors 1 and 2 revealed that Factor 2 was significantly more predictive of total outcomes, general recidivism, violent recidivism, and outcomes from the 12 most methodological sound studies than Factor 1. There was less differentiation between Factors 1 and 2 on measures of institutional adjustment.     

Measuring proactive and reactive criminal thinking with the PICTS: correlations with outcome expectancies and hostile attribution biases

Research studies have determined that proactive or instrumental aggression correlates with positive outcome expectancies for violence, whereas reactive aggression correlates with hostile attribution biases. It was hypothesized that the Problem Avoidance factor scale of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) would serve as an effective proxy for reactive criminal thinking and that the PICTS Self-Assertion/Deception factor scale would serve as an effective proxy for proactive criminal thinking. These two factor scales were subsequently correlated with positive outcome expectancies for crime (n=313) and a three-item index of hostile attribution bias (n=164) in a sample of male medium security prison inmates. As expected, the Problem Avoidance scale successfully predicted future hostile attribution biases but not positive outcome expectancies for crime, whereas the Self-Assertion/Deception scale successfully predicted future positive outcome expectancies for crime but not hostile attribution biases.     

Criminal Recidivism Among Juvenile Offenders: Testing the Incremental and Predictive Validity of Three Measures of Psychopathic Features

We studied the predictive, comparative, and incremental validity of three measures of psychopathic features (Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Antisocial Process Screening Device [APSD]; Childhood Psychopathy Scale [CPS]) vis-à-vis criminal recidivism among 83 delinquent youth within a truly prospective design. Bivariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazard analyses) showed that of the three measures, the CPS was most consistently related to most types of recidivism in comparison to the other measures. However, incremental validity analyses demonstrated that all of the predictive effects for the measures of psychopathic features disappeared after conceptually relevant covariates (i.e., substance use, conduct disorder, young age, past property crime) were included in multivariate predictive models. Implications for the limits of these measures in applied juvenile justice assessment are discussed.