Pioneers of peace research VI: Norman Z. Alcock: Apostle of cycles and builder of bridges

From the beginning of his peace research in 1961, Alcock expected some happy combination of disarmament and world government to lead to world peace. By 1971 this happy combination included world development, which involved a world government in redistributing the savings from disarmament. Since no progress resulted from arms control and disarmament talks and treaties by 1978, and since no progress was made in revising the United Nations charter toward an effective world government, Alcock proposed reducing military expenditures instead of arms, since the reduction of military expenditures 10% per year could be verified by fiscal inspection; aid could be transferred from nations with the most money to nations with the most people; and Peace‐keeping forces could be established to operate automatically on the basis of action criteria or tension readings independently of United Nations voting. In this manner, disarmament, aid, and peacekeeping would simultaneously reduce civil, international, and structural violence, leading to a happier, healthier, wealthier, and wiser world at peace. Unfortunately, the United Nations Special Sessions on Disarmament in 1978 and 1982 paid little attention to proposals such as these.     

Reduction of socio‐economic injustice: Four scenarios to the year 2001

This empirical study is a continuation of the Limits‐to‐Violence project started in 1975 by the Canadian Peace Research Institute. The LIV project sought to model three kinds of violence‐civil war, international war, and socio‐economic injustice‐in an effort to limit global violence in the future.

The research reported here is concerned with reducing socio‐economic injustice, or so‐called “structural” violence. Four scenarios are calculated for the years 1973–2001. No. 1 is a “Status quo” model based on a slow growth or stagnant world economy, where in addition no attempt is made to reduce the gap between the rich and poor nations of the world. Scenarios Nos. 2–4 are different variations of a swords‐into‐ploughshares program where steady global disarmament and massive foreign aid proceed together over the 1982–2001 period. Four Tables and six Figures help to illustrate what is possible.     

Strategic defense without star wars: The case for a defense‐emphasis arms control regime 1

This paper challenges two prevalent assumptions of the mainstream U.S. arms control community: first, that strategic nuclear disarmament? should be regarded as beyond the scope of serious superpower dialogue; second, that strategic defense (especially population defense) is inherently incompatible with the goals of arms control. It does so first by analyzing the events surrounding the Reykjavik summit—the occasion of the first direct negotiations on disarmament between the leaders of the United States and the Soviet Union. Next, while identifying grave flaws in the current design of the Strategic Defense Initiative, it will be argued that a defense‐emphasis arms control regime can provide the best long‐term means for addressing the problem of security in the nuclear age.     

A Nuclear-Free Middle East – Just Not in the Cards

A scheduled conference to promote a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East has renewed hopes for nuclear disarmament in this unstable region, if only innovative diplomacy could take advantage of the current shifts. However, a realistic assessment suggests that optimism is unwarranted. Fundamental strategic considerations related to Iran's nuclear program, Israel's atomic options, and the region's ingrate security architecture remain nearly insurmountable hurdles. Therefore, policymakers should focus first on attaining a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.     

Eisenhower's disarmament dilemma: From chance for peace to open skies proposal

President Eisenhower's image as a promoter of ‘peace and nuclear disarmament’ was established through speeches he made such as ‘Atoms for Peace’ (December 1953) and ‘Open Skies’ proposal (July 1955). However, Eisenhower's approach to the subject cannot be grasped without an understanding of his attitude towards the relationship between arms, war and disarmament. As he saw it, not only would the mere existence of nuclear weapons not trigger a war, they were actually the best guarantee against the eruption of a global conflagration. The real threat to world security was the repressive, closed, totalitarian and expansionist Soviet regime. War could be prevented only by a dramatic change in the competing ‐ and threatening ‐ ideology and social structure embedded in the Soviet system. Until then, the existence of nuclear weapons would ensure the free world's safety.     

The politics of foreign debt in Latin America a study of the debtors’ cartel

This analysis of the foreign debt problem in Latin America shows that this economic burden is onerous and will not be reduced in the short run. The region's political leaders perceived that collective bargaining could increase their bargaining leverage with foreign lenders and could produce more advantageous repayment schedules for most nations. However, despite verbal backing and the economic promise of collective bargaining, a debtors’ cartel failed to materialize. Evaluations of the political dynamics in key nations anticipated creditors. This analysis also shows that the debtors’ cartel failed because collective bargaining did not gain domestic political support. Foreign influence was tangential to the outcome. Given this political climate, the chances for a revival of collective bargaining are very slim.     

Reaction to two perspectives,the present and the future

The author agrees with Alastair Buchan's position that the bipolarity of the two super powers is declining, but disagrees that relations between the United States and the USSR are stabilizing. The future of the international system is seen as determined by exponential growth in (1) the arms race, (2) economic development which is necessarily founded on a limited resource base, and (3) population. The only hope for stability in the world is seen as decreased nationalism, equalization of wealth among the peoples of the world, disarmament, and world government. Without these changes of direction, the predictions of the Limits of Growth are seen as all too likely to materialize.     

The Press, Public Opinion, Arms Limitation, and Government Policy in Britain, 1932-34: Some Preliminary Observations

One of the least understood issues concerning interwar Britain is the connection between public opinion and the development and implementation of foreign and defence policy. And what is true generally of these crucial elements of interwar British statecraft is doubly so for perhaps their most nettled subset: disarmament. Public opinion polling did not begin in Britain till 1937; yet in 1932-34, when Britain played a leading role in the League of Nations-sponsored World Disarmament Conference, government ministers and their civil service and armed forces advisors sought to produce policy for this conference that would balance between limiting the national armoury and protecting national and Imperial security. Their reading of public opinion was crucial; but so, too, was the reading that the opposition parties and extra-parliamentary interest groups did and the subsequent pressures that they brought to bear on the government. This article offers some preliminary observations on the efficacy of using the national press as a means both of assessing public attitudes and of connecting the public debate over disarmament policy with policymaking within the British government.     

The Press,Public Opinion,Arms Limitation,and Government Policy in Britain, 1932-34: Some Preliminary Observations

One of the least understood issues concerning interwar Britain is the connection between public opinion and the development and implementation of foreign and defence policy. And what is true generally of these crucial elements of interwar British statecraft is doubly so for perhaps their most nettled subset: disarmament. Public opinion polling did not begin in Britain till 1937; yet in 1932-34, when Britain played a leading role in the League of Nations-sponsored World Disarmament Conference, government ministers and their civil service and armed forces advisors sought to produce policy for this conference that would balance between limiting the national armoury and protecting national and Imperial security. Their reading of public opinion was crucial; but so, too, was the reading that the opposition parties and extra-parliamentary interest groups did and the subsequent pressures that they brought to bear on the government. This article offers some preliminary observations on the efficacy of using the national press as a means both of assessing public attitudes and of connecting the public debate over disarmament policy with policymaking within the British government.     

The Dilemma of Nuclear Disarmament: The Case of North Korea

ABSTRACT

The Hanoi summit between the US and North Korea failed not because of North Korea’s brinkmanship strategy or its miscalculation of the US position on the denuclearisation talks, but because of a fundamental issue: a dilemma of how much to yield in giving up its military capabilities to expedite the lifting of sanctions. The leadership in Pyongyang has concerns about the ‘deliverability’ of its promises to its domestic audience to ensure deterrence capabilities and economic recovery. The two-level game model explains why both sides keep minimising the range of options for the negotiations, increasing the risk that the talks will break down.     

Positions on sexual and reproductive rights in Muslim-majority countries and institutions: a telling indication of things to come?

ABSTRACT

This article provides a policy analysis of Muslim-majority countries’ positions on sexual and reproductive rights (SRR). First-hand observations, interviews, and reports are used to review how statements around various intergovernmental moments continue to be formulated since the International Conference on Population and Development in 1994. The analysis outlines both the similarity and diversity between and among Muslim-majority countries on a range of SRR areas, while pointing out that positions are by no means unique to them. Rather, it is argued that opposition to SRR defines a terrain of “unholy alliances” between and among different religiously inspired nations, and ends by enquiring whether SRR may be an important political indicator of real politik.     

Political parties and the formation of terrorist groups

Where do modern terrorist group come from? How do they begin? This article establishes that most often they emerge from political parties. An effort is made to identify the relevant types of parties and the internal party dynamics which may have led to terrorist activity. Also, it is asserted that party‐terrorist group links are most likely to occur in nations whose political systems are going through episodes of regime transformation.     

Dialoog en Manipulasie in kommunikasie

SUMMARY

In this article the author deals with the misunderstanding of nonverbal behaviour. He presents relevant qualitative and quantitative data on misunderstanding based on tests administrated to both Ethiopian newcomers and veteran residents of modern Israel. He also discusses gestures in both cultures which are homomorphs but antonyms as well as what he calls “congruent” and “diverging” decoding, and the interpersonal and intrapersonal processes of misunderstanding. He offers a model of “Communication Quality” and introduces the concept of the “certainty factor.” For testing the level of nonverbal misunderstanding, the author developed the Schneller Israeli Emblem Test, which he administered to Israelis from eight countries. In the light of his relevant theoretical and conceptual approaches, Schneller's work yields important conclusions, so that this may be applied to other multicultural nations as well. Included in this contribution are also appendices with a total of 35 Ethopian and Israeli emblematic gestures.     

HAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS MEMBER STATES PUT ARMS CONTROL ON THE BACK BURNER?

The disarmament experienced during the last decade is over and the world seems poised for a new arms race. While the US government shows an open disinterest in negotiated arms control and bases its policy on a strong military posture, European governments also seem to have put arms control on the back burner. Governments and experts argue about the perceived gap in military capability between the US and Europe while in reality the actual important gap exists between NATO and the rest of the world. Several suggestions are made in this article how governments in Europe can take initiatives to foster disarmament and arms control.     

The West’s Policeman? Assessing Italy’s Status in Global Peacekeeping

ABSTRACT

Since the 1960s, and especially the 1980s, Italy has participated in and led numerous peace support operations (PSOs), predominantly under the aegis of international organisations. Italy’s participation in PSOs authorised by the UN, the EU, NATO and other multilateral agreements stems from a combination of national interest and humanitarianism/multilateralism. However, although acknowledged as a significant contributor, a clear assessment of its status in global peacekeeping is still missing. In fact, Italy plays a role that is comparatively greater than all Western nations in the international fora taken into account, and, as such, can be described as ‘the West’s policeman’, from both a quantitative (number of troops) and qualitative (role within the missions) perspective. This might be somewhat curbed in the future, however, due to some of the country’s limitations on foreign policy.     

Disarming Somalia: lessons in stabilisation from a collapsed state

International efforts to resolve the Somali crisis have foundered on one central paradox: the restoration of state institutions is both an apparent solution to the conflict and its most important underlying cause. Somalis tend to approach disarmament and demobilisation—two central pillars of the ‘state-building’ process—with the fundamental question: who is disarming whom? If the answer threatens to entrench unbalanced and unstable power relations, then it may also exacerbate and prolong the conflict. In this paper, the authors examine disarmament and demobilisation initiatives from southern Somalia, Puntland and Somaliland. In southern Somalia, externally-driven disarmament and demobilisation initiatives in support of successive interim ‘governments’ have been widely viewed with suspicion and alarm. In Somaliland and Puntland, Somali-led, locally owned efforts have achieved a degree of success that can be instructive elsewhere. The authors conclude that conventional international approaches to ‘state-building’ in Somalia must be reassessed—notably that security sector issues must be treated not as a purely ‘technical’ issue, but as an integral part of the political process.     

Deterrence,uncertainty and cooperative behavior

The paper analyzes deterrence relationships in situations when the relevant forms of behavior are subject to lags such as in the case of foreign interventions and technological arms races. Mutual deterrence is a way of inducing cooperative behavior. Successful deterrence, in the cases considered, can be considered as ways of inducing cooperative behaviors in Prisoners’ Dilemma Supergames, the model used in this paper. It is argued that, in general, deterrence is more likely to be successful and hence cooperative behavior more prevalent in systems where the actors can move between strategies quickly (i.e., are flexible) and which are characterized by low uncertainty. The paper also analyzes the concept of discounting and time preference in the discussion of political phenomena where the concept has no market interpretation. It is analyzed as a rational response to uncertainty.     

National liberation and the conflicting terms of discourse in South Africa: An interpretation

Abstract

Underlying the moves and countermoves of the current communal conflict in South Africa is a struggle to control the meanings of the key terms of discourse—race, nation, apartheid and socialism—by which the conflict is characterized within and outside the country. Although no definition, therefore, of any of these terms can escape politicization, there is a case, historically and with a view to a negotiated settlement, for having apartheid, the most emotion‐laden of these terms, limited to post‐1948 doctrine and practice. The foundation for a negotiated settlement unaccompanied by overt civil war must be rather detailed agreement, tacit or explicit, on what the end of apartheid means. But if there is to be such agreement, it must be the work of a broad coalition from all of the race/nations acting probably against the desires of two major groups: defenders of the status quo and proponents of revolutionary socialism.     

Science,security and spies

Abstract

The national research and development (R&D) base has in the post-cold war era gained increased importance in order to fill new security demands. There is a broadening of the search for security relevant science and technology involving more organizations and interests, scientific disciplines and nations. The question discussed in this article is if the premises of international, free and open R&D will be(come) compromised? Will we see more scientists, in their normal scientific activities, being accused of spying? The article suggests that such risks are not unrealistic to expect. Spy cases in less democratic countries could have consequences for scientists also in other countries. Outcomes depend on, among other things, the relative strengths of academic freedom and a political Identification Friend and Foe (IFF) component. United Nations and European Union resolutions restricting science education for students from Iran and North Korea in an attempt to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons illustrate a strong IFF component. Difficulties with regard to the implementation of these resolutions and other findings are presented in the final section of the article.     

Pathways into Terrorism: Understanding Entry into and Support for Terrorism in Asia

ABSTRACT

How do individuals join Islamist extremist groups? Why do individuals support such groups? What factors contribute to a decision to join? What are the pathways into Islamist extremist groups? Drawing on examples from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines, the articles in this special issue address these critically important questions drawing on original fieldwork, new datasets and large scale national survey research. These articles explore the experiences and perceptions of men and women, South and Southeast Asians, living in majority Muslim and non-Muslim nations. Collectively, they illustrate the importance of social bonds&kinship ties, friendship, teacher-student ties and online relationships in creating a powerful sense of community that fosters a sense of belonging and eventual commitment. The goal of this special issue is to highlight the contributions that Asian cases can make to the often Middle Eastern and European-centric discourses on radicalization, joining and support for militancy.