民族分裂主义及其治理模式研究

具有高度政治分离目标和主权诉求的民族分裂主义是导致国内、国际政治失序和政局动荡的重要因素。由于民族分裂主义不时出现在国际政治的发展进程中,不时搅动或重组原有的政治格局,因而抑制和应对民族分裂主义是必要的多民族国家治理功能。实现有效的民族分裂主义治理应当从分析民族分裂主义的特点和诱发机制起步。发生普遍、目标明确、诱因复杂、认同坚韧是民族分裂主义的特点。利用和强化族性认同、渲染政治主张、通过动员形成集体行动、获取外部支持等环节构成了民族分裂主义行动的诱发机制。因循民族分裂主义生成与发展的机理,从无条件捍卫主权的理路采取的严厉打击模式,从不同程度赋权的理路采取政治容留模式,从消减族性动员的理路采取认同调控模式,从抑制精英力量的理路采取柔性控制模式,从转化政治生态的理路采取外部干预模式,可成为多民族国家治理中的参考。     

国家主权、思想自立与发展权利——试论当代非洲国家建构的障碍及前景

由松散分割的传统部族社会,向统一聚合的现代主权国家过渡,是当代非洲国家政治发展的核心主题与基本目标。在此发展阶段上,非洲国家需要形成有效能的中央政府,且致力于国家的经济发展、政治稳定和民族融合,以国家力量来集中资源,动员民众,培植国家情感,追求发展目标。迄今,国家成长与民族融合这两大任务在许多非洲国家都没有真正完成。为此,非洲需要一种新的思想变革运动,从自身的现实需要来追求理解政治的意义,从经济的角度来把握政治的本质,以经济发展为中心来建设国家,维护国家主权,追求思想自立,方能最终实现国泰民安,富强稳定。在维护非洲国家主权、推进非洲国家成长方面,中国可以发挥更多建设性的作用。     

Moldova and Transdniestria: Painful past,deadlocked present,uncertain future

The ethnic conflict between Slavs and Moldovans in the Moldovan region of Transdniestria is one of the lesser‐known post‐Soviet conflicts, as, mercifully, its scale never reached that of conflict in Chechnya or Nagorny‐Karabakh. Nevertheless, this conflict, which started in 1990 after the Russian‐speaking Slavic minority on the left bank of the Dniester declared its independence from the Romanian‐speaking right bank, has claimed hundreds of lives. Today, it remains unresolved; a political settlement has not been achieved. The frozen ceasefire in the region simply preserved the status quo which is virtual independence for the self‐declared, but not recognised by any other state, Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), or Dniester Republic, from Moldova.

This work seeks to attempt to answer the following questions: what were the roots of the ethno‐political conflict in Moldova ? What were the circumstances that prompted the escalation of the conflict into bloodshed? To what extent did external forces influence events, and, finally, what are the prospects for a political settlement in the republic?     

Speak ill of me … but speak,or How to be Afrikaans on the SABC

Abstract

The elections of 1994 marked the beginning of a full-scale restructuring of the broadcasting sector in South Africa. Apart from changes related to ownership, editorial content, the media's position within society at large and its relationship to the government of the day, South African media have also undergone massive changes in terms of their languages of communication and the faces that are seen and heard. These changes were steered, in part, by debates on language equity and identity in South Africa. The politics of language equity in broadcasting reform has been shaped by conflicts over the legitimacy of who is represented, by what means, by whom and for what purposes. Afrikaans especially came under fire because of its privileged position before 1994. While the transition of South Africa to an inclusive democracy in 1994 freed Afrikaans from its apartheid shackles, it also made it one of only 11 official languages (Giliomee 2004: 25). The resultant debates about the position and status of Afrikaans – including that of speakers of Afrikaans – have intensified during the almost two decades post-apartheid. This article explores these discourses to establish the position of Afrikaans and its speakers as far as the South African Broadcasting Corporation is concerned.     

Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008

This article examines the role of economic inequality in influencing the risk of armed conflict between communal groups in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that socioeconomic inequality can generate intergroup grievances, which, due to the exclusionary legitimacy of the African state and elite incentives to engage in competitive mobilization of communal groups, precipitate violent communal conflict. To examine this argument, we rely on a series of household surveys to construct subnational inequality measures. For each region, we calculate measures of inequality in terms of household welfare and education between individuals (vertical inequality) and between ethnic groups (horizontal inequality). Combining the inequality data with new georeferenced data on communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1990–2008, we find that regions with strong socioeconomic inequalities—both vertical and horizontal—are significantly more exposed to violent communal conflicts. More specifically, regions in which the largest ethnic group is severely disadvantaged compared to other groups are particularly prone to experience communal conflict.     

Indigeneity,Ethnicity, and the State: Australia,Fiji, and New Zealand

This article draws on the politics of indigeneity to distinguish the claims of first occupancy from simple ethnic identity politics, illustrating that relative political marginalization in Australasia is not so much a function of minority status but of indigeneity itself. The politics of indigeneity's aim is to create political space for self-determination and a particular indigenous share in the sovereign authority of the nation-state itself. The Australasian states are compared with Fiji to demonstrate that the significance of historical constraints on political authority transcend the withdrawal of a colonial power and the restoration of collective indigenous majority population status.     

The changing phases of the Niger Delta conflict: implications for conflict escalation and the return of peace

This paper discusses the nature and dynamics of the Niger Delta conflict and traces the structural origin of the conflict to a dysfunctional Nigerian ‘state-nation’ that is a product of colonisation. The paper argues that the conflict is best understood as a process viewed in terms of nests or phases. Building on previous findings on the aetiology of African conflicts and contemporary scholarship on African politics, the paper identifies how different phases of the Niger Delta conflict interact to impel the conflict toward escalation. Consequently, it is argued that both the ‘marginalisation-relative deprivation’ and the ‘political economy of war’ theses have been instrumental in furthering our understanding of the conflict along different lines. However, the tendency for both perspectives to claim superiority over the other has meant that each only offers a partial truth and is therefore unable to explain the increasing intensity and longevity of the Niger Delta conflict. Indeed, it is shown how these theses feed into the discursive struggle between militants, militant entrepreneurs and the Nigerian Government in ways that allow for the commodification of the Niger Delta people. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of the emerging issues for the return of peace in the Niger Delta.     

Do Religious Factors Impact Armed Conflict? Empirical Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa

Theoretically, the “mobilization hypothesis” establishes a link between religion and conflict by arguing that particular religious structures are prone to mobilization; once politicized, escalation to violent conflict becomes more likely. Yet, despite the religious diversity in sub-Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African conflicts, this assumption has not yet been backed by systematic empirical research on the religion–conflict nexus in the region. The following questions thus remain: Do religious factors significantly impact the onset of (religious) armed conflict? If so, do they follow the logic of the mobilization hypothesis and, if so, in which way? To answer these questions, this article draws on a unique data inventory of all sub-Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008, particularly including data on mobilization-prone religious structures (e.g., demographic changes, parallel ethno-religious identities) as well as religious factors indicating actual politicization of religion (e.g., inter-religious tensions, religious discrimination, incitement by religious leaders). Logit regressions suggest that religion indeed plays a significant role in African armed conflicts. These findings are compatible with the mobilization hypothesis, and stress the impact of conflict-prone religious structures, and particularly, the fact that overlaps of religious and ethnic identities are conflict-prone. Future research should investigate the religion-ethnicity-nexus in more detail.     

Discrimination and ethnic conflict: a dyadic analysis of politically-excluded groups in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

The literature on political exclusion and conflict tends to treat grievance-based mechanisms with broad-brush strokes and does not differentiate between types of political exclusion. This study disaggregates politically-excluded groups into two subgroups: groups that experience political discrimination from the state, and groups without political power that are not explicitly discriminated against. We posit that discriminated groups are more likely to experience grievances and therefore are more prone to conflict than excluded groups that are not actively discriminated against. We further posit that the effect of discrimination on conflict is moderated by interactions with economic inequalities and the share of elites. Using dyadic data for 155 ethnic groups in 28 Sub-Saharan African countries, we find that among politically-excluded groups it is indeed discriminated groups that are responsible for most of the association between political exclusion and conflict. Groups that face active, intentional, and targeted discrimination by the state are significantly more likely to be involved in conflict than excluded groups who do not face this explicit form of discrimination. Additionally, we find that discriminated groups who also experience economic inequalities are less likely to engage in conflict, whilst an increased presence of elites within discriminated groups can precipitate the chances of conflict.     

Kashmir and Tibet: comparing conflicts,states, and solutions

Five decades of conflicts in Kashmir and Tibet continue into the twenty-first century without clear signs of resolution. This article focuses on issues of collective rights, national identity, and state sovereignty in these two conflicts to ask what political recourses exist for Tibetans or citizens of Jammu and Kashmir in today's changing world. As citizens of differently organized states and subjects to dissimilar conflicts, what methods and types of conflict resolution might Tibetans and Kashmiris have shared access to? Both of these post-WWII conflicts have been framed and defined by the two core states involved, India and China. Analytically, therefore, this article draws on anthropological and political constructivist work on the state to suggest possible non-violent, community-oriented solutions to these conflicts.     

The eclipse of consociationalism in South Africa's Democratic Transition

This article considers the failure of consociationalism ‐ claimed by its proponents to be the best form of democracy for countries characterized by ethnic cleavages ‐ to provide any plausible solution to the dilemmas that faced political elites in South Africa as they exited from apartheid and moved towards majoritarian democracy. The basic argument here is that consociationalism's one‐dimensional approach to ethnic politics depleted the model of any pragmatic utility, especially when it became evident that the ethnic equation in South Africa was more fluid than the consociational model had entertained.     

族性视野中多民族国家族际政治问题比较研究——基于尼日利亚与印度尼西亚民族国家建构的经验观察

族性是影响多民族国家安全及其族际政治走向的关键变量。它既能促进族际政治整合、维护国家安全、有助于民族国家建构,也能导致族际政治冲突、危及国家安全、阻碍民族国家建构。以"族性"为分析视角,通过对尼日利亚与印度尼西亚民族国家建构历程的梳理及其族际政治问题的比较,其共性特征包括:族际政治问题的分析单位是多民族国家;族际政治问题虽然发生在现实中的多民族国家,却往往带有深刻的历史根源;政治与文化边界的重叠是族际政治问题产生的逻辑起点;国内不同民族群体无法得到平等公正对待是导致族际政治问题的核心因素;军事专政和腐败会增加族际政治问题的风险和国家安全的不确定性。解决多民族国家族际政治问题、确保国家安全的关键在于如何让一个在历史上和观念中都不曾存在的国家民族能够超越族性分界而被成功建构。结合两国国情提出应对策略:寻找重叠共识,建构文化多元、政治一体的国族共同体;借鉴差异政治和差别公民权利思想,探寻积极回应不同民族群体正当利益诉求、实现各族人民成果共享、利益均沾的政治制度、体制和机制;消除军人在政治生活中的影响,惩治腐败;探索包容促进多语言、多宗教和谐相处的民族政策。     

Europe's global ambitions and the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD): of what relevance is the Politique Africaine?

The New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) agreed in 2001 between the G7 and African leaders is an ambitious initiative to resolve the problems of economic underdevelopment, political instability and armed conflict in Africa. Essentially, it rests on the promise of increased economic aid in exchange for African commitment to liberal political and economic governance. This article examines the implications of NEPAD for the EU's policies towards Africa. It argues that the EU's economic instruments are more suitable for tackling security problems in Africa than its evolving military capacity or global multilateral cooperation with African states through NEPAD structures. It is argued that extant structures of European-African relations can significantly impact on African governance processes and their security outcomes only if they can be graduated into ‘constitutive’ forms of economic intervention similar to processes of accession into the EU. Such a modification, based on variegated competitive partnerships, would be consistent with the French origins of European-African relations and maybe possible because of the links between French foreign policy and Europe's evolving global role.     

Threats to Primal Identities: A Comparison of Nationalism and Religion as Impacts on Ethnic Protest and Rebellion

The post World War II world has witnessed a proliferation of conflicts based on ethnic differences. Religion and national identity are two dominant features of many of these ethnic struggles. The purpose of this study is to determine which of the two has a greater impact on protest and rebellion using large-n methodology, employing variables from the Minorities at Risk Phase 3 dataset as well as data collected independently. It was found that the simple answer is that nationalism has a greater impact on conflict than does religion. However, this simple answer is not an accurate answer. This is because the simple answer that nationalism has a greater influence is to a great extent due to the fact that the majority of ethnic conflicts are between groups that are not religiously different. If one looks only at those ethnic conflicts where religion can potentially be a factor, religious and national issues are involved in ethnic conflicts approximately as often. Also, while religious issues alone seem to have less of an influence on ethnic conflict than national issues, religious issues have a strong influence on the relationship between nationalism and ethnic conflict, to the extent that the relationship between nationalism and ethnic conflict can not be fully understood without accounting for the influence of religion.     

Going Global: Islamist Competition in Contemporary Civil Wars

The global landscape of modern jihad is highly diverse and wrought with conflict between rival Islamist factions. Within this inter-Islamist competition, some factions prove to be more robust and durable than others. This research proposes that the adoption of a global identity allows an Islamist group to better recruit and expand their domestic political power across ethnic and tribal divisions without being constrained by local politics. Islamists that rely on an ethnic or tribal identity are more prone to group fragmentation, whereas global Islamists are better able to retain group cohesion by purging their ranks of dissenters. To examine these two processes, I present original field research and primary source analysis to examine Islamist in-fighting in Somalia from 2006–2014 and then expand my analysis to Iraq and Syria, Pakistan, and Mali.     

Listen to us—we know the solution: mapping the perspectives of African communities for innovative conflict resolution

Inspired by the need to find lasting solutions to violent conflict, the author stated the research question by asking ‘how can community knowledge be given a new centrality so that it can contribute to innovative conflict resolution?’ In answering this question, the author argues that conflict mapping is a strong influential instrument not only for community research, but also to empower a community to deal with conflict, promote equity of discourse on all dimensions of a conflict, as well as to create a web of equal relationships among peace-builders to resolve conflicts. The conceptual framework addresses conflict mapping; the top-down/bottom-up approach to conflict resolution and introduces the concept ‘innovative conflict resolution’. Examples of centralising community knowledge in some African societies are offered. The conceptual framework and examples from Africa are then applied to practical conflict mapping that was performed as part of a community engaged participatory research project with a San community in South Africa.     

Conflict and peace building in West Africa: the role of civil society and the African Union

The paper examines the problem of conflicts and the task of peace building in West Africa explicating the role of civil society and the African Union in that process. It argues that there is an inverse relationship between the causes of conflicts and the challenge of peace building in the sub‐region. The crisis of governance, which manifests in the problems of authoritarian rule, statism, identity and citizenship, minority agitation, economic and social injustice are key elements in the aetiology of conflicts, which have to be gradually deconstructed for meaningful peace building to take place in the sub‐region.     

African security and global militarism

ABSTRACT

This Special Issue asks: what is the current place of militarism in relation to security where Africa is concerned? It aims to contribute to emerging debates interested in critical inquiry of the relation between militarism and security, and to explore its diverse articulations in African settings. We advance an international political sociological (IPS) approach to militarism in order to explore militarised security politics as a field of contested practices and logics. We discuss why this approach enables us to uncover the interconnected historical patterns and power relations in which practices and logics of security and militarism become linked and grounded in simultaneously local and transnational African settings.     

Challenging the State,Redefining the Nation: The Contemporary Amazigh Movement in Turbulent Times

This article examines the efforts of the Amazigh (Berber) identity movement during the last 7 years to redefine the content of North African states’ collective national identities, and the responses of state and other societal actors during a period of renewed political contestation. In highlighting the increasingly charged and contested political environment in North Africa, it argues that (a) the Berber-Amazigh identity movement has registered important symbolic achievements, (b) translating these symbolic achievements into concrete ones remains enormously difficult, and (c) the discourse and praxis of the Amazigh current has become increasingly militant, and even ethnonational.