族性视野中多民族国家族际政治问题比较研究——基于尼日利亚与印度尼西亚民族国家建构的经验观察

族性是影响多民族国家安全及其族际政治走向的关键变量。它既能促进族际政治整合、维护国家安全、有助于民族国家建构,也能导致族际政治冲突、危及国家安全、阻碍民族国家建构。以"族性"为分析视角,通过对尼日利亚与印度尼西亚民族国家建构历程的梳理及其族际政治问题的比较,其共性特征包括:族际政治问题的分析单位是多民族国家;族际政治问题虽然发生在现实中的多民族国家,却往往带有深刻的历史根源;政治与文化边界的重叠是族际政治问题产生的逻辑起点;国内不同民族群体无法得到平等公正对待是导致族际政治问题的核心因素;军事专政和腐败会增加族际政治问题的风险和国家安全的不确定性。解决多民族国家族际政治问题、确保国家安全的关键在于如何让一个在历史上和观念中都不曾存在的国家民族能够超越族性分界而被成功建构。结合两国国情提出应对策略:寻找重叠共识,建构文化多元、政治一体的国族共同体;借鉴差异政治和差别公民权利思想,探寻积极回应不同民族群体正当利益诉求、实现各族人民成果共享、利益均沾的政治制度、体制和机制;消除军人在政治生活中的影响,惩治腐败;探索包容促进多语言、多宗教和谐相处的民族政策。     

族性动员及其消抑研究

族类群体的政治行动离不开政治动员的环节,族性动员普遍被视为现代政体中一种潜在的非整合性力量,其发生往往都以族性认同为内核或工具,再加上族群精英或族群政党进行有效的政治动员才得以实现。族性动员是一个族群围绕一定的族群认同(例如肤色、语言、风俗等)进行组织,以追求集体目标的过程。族性动员一旦发生,其对国家秩序、族群关系、经济发展及社会安定造成极大的破坏,由此引发的多米诺效应也许会延续更长的时间,往往造成国家政治秩序紊乱、族群社会行为失范、民众恐惧心理加剧,其后果往往远超过于此,溢出效应可波及邻国,导致地区安全危机,甚至国际安全危机。研究族性动员的理论与实践,有助于深刻洞察民族政治行动的发生、发展规律。族性动员既是一个过程,又是一个行动系统。族性动员既有方向性,又有技术和路径支持。目前,国内对族性动员的理论研究不够深入,缺乏系统分析与建构。在实践层面上,群体性事件爆发的频率在加快,身处全球化、信息化、网络化的大背景下,事件、运动及动员产生的模仿效应在增强。因此,对于民族国家及政府而言,不断寻求有效的整合与消抑策略,防范与管控失控的族性动员,将是任重而道远的过程。     

当代俄罗斯民族认同问题探析

目前,全球化的浪潮席卷全球,转型时期的俄罗斯也身处其中,面临既要积极参与全球化进程,又要维护自己民族认同的双重挑战。俄罗斯是一个多民族国家,民族认同问题有其深刻的历史必然性。苏联解体后,转型时期的俄罗斯民族经历了痛苦的自我审视过程,民族认同问题不可回避。同时,面对日益严峻的民族认同问题,俄罗斯政府采取了一系列政策措施来应对,旨在构建新的俄罗斯国家民族认同。     

第三次民族主义浪潮兴起根源初探

民族主义既是一种思潮, 也是一场运动。冷战结束后, 此起彼伏的第三次民族主义浪 潮席卷全球, 成为影响当今国际形势安全与稳定的最重要因素之一。第三次民族主义浪潮兴起的 原因, 从国际体系层次来看, 是冷战格局的解体和不合理的国际经济体系的负面影响;从国家层次 来看, 是有关国家民族政策的失误、历史遗留问题的后遗症和外部势力介入造成的不良后果;个人 层次的原因是以个人认同为基础的民族认同与国家认同发生了不利于国家稳定的变化。     

俄罗斯民族认同中的政治文化指向

俄罗斯民族和国家形成的过程也是俄罗斯民族认同形成的过程，东正教和专制制度分别为民族认同提供了文化和政治方面的基础。在这个过程中，俄罗斯民族的思想也逐渐成熟，以东正教和专制制度思想为特征的政治文化是其中的重要内容。俄罗斯民族正是依靠这种独特的政治文化基础，形成内部自我认同，确立外部自我形象，在众多认同标准中以此为主要指向。     

族性安全的概念、理论与范式

族性是族类群体所具有的共同特质,是形成族类群体认同的纽带。族性认同是族类群体形成认知和行动一致性的基础,凭借动员的环节,族性及族性认同被带入政治场域,参与资源和权力的分配,并因循不同的政治行动呈现出族际关系、族类群体与国家关系、族类群体与国际关系的复杂交织和震荡联动,在不同的时空表现出不同的态势和影响。当族类群体的政治行动超出有序范围,以暴力、骚乱、恐怖行动、屠杀、清洗、武装冲突和分裂运动等形式出现时,便给相关群体带来恐惧与伤害,给社会和国家带来失序与动荡,甚至会危及国家主权和地区、国际的政治关系与秩序。族性安全,是指因族性动员而对人的生命、社会秩序、国家主权、国际关系等是否产生威胁或损害的状态。族性转化为安全议题需要以认同为基础、以动员为条件、以信念为支持,并在一定的族际结构中发生,因而需要族性认同、政治动员、民族主义、离散政治等理论的诠释。族性安全的研究范式可分为规范研究和经验研究。     

论分裂主义与国家承认

对国家承认问题的研究是国际关系学界容易忽视的研究领域。近年来,随着世界分裂主义的发展甚嚣尘上,围绕对分裂实体的国家承认所引发的矛盾和冲突也更为激烈,因此研究分裂主义与国际承认之间的关系便十分必要。国际政治中的国家承认是指各国将某个政治行为体确认和接纳为新的主权国家。虽然国际法确认了国家承认的基本原则,但是各承认国主要基于自身的利益来考量对新成员特别是分裂实体的国家承认,这不可避免地导致了国家承认实践中的差异与纷争。正因如此,对面临分裂主义挑战的国家来说,在反分裂斗争中有必要制定和实施"反承认战略",以遏制分裂主义的图谋。当然,对于分裂主义应对而言,问题发展到"建国"的阶段其实已十分严峻,相关国家更应该注重这一阶段之前的治理工作,如遏制分裂势力的发展、寻求实现政治和解、防范外部势力的介入等。     

民族联邦制对多民族国家的政治整合——以苏联和南斯拉夫为例

苏联和南斯拉夫所实行的都是以民族为特征的联邦制。两国在运用民族联邦制实现多民族国家政治整合的过程中，没有正确把握联邦制的实质，最终导致国家解体。对这两个国家以建立民族联邦制来实现多民族国家政治整合的实践过程加以考察，对我国多民族国家的政治整合具有重要的现实意义。     

新加坡的民族政策及其运作

新加坡是一个多民族国家。独立后，新加坡政府采取了很多有效措施解决民族问题，如进行国家认同与统一国民意识教育，建设公共组屋使各族混居促进和谐共处，让人民协会发挥预警功能，实现了各族和谐融洽共同建设家园，民族政策取得重大成就，是世界上民族和谐方面做得最好的国家之一。     

在民族与国家之间--对阿拉伯地区政治的观念解读

阿拉伯世界存在着多重政治认同,这是该地区政治生态环境复杂多变的重要根源.其中,尤以阿拉伯民族主义对地区政治的影响最为深远.首先,它使阿拉伯国家陷入建立主权国家还是民族国家的政治认同标准之争;其次,它使阿拉伯国家不断面临着国家利益优先还是民族利益优先的执政理念困扰;最后,它要求阿拉伯国家统一对外立场而引起阿拉伯内部及其与外部世界的关系紧张.     

Can Russia's Quest for the New International Order Succeed?

A genesis and development of the conflict in Ukraine demonstrated fragility of the international security system and its inability to guard sovereignty of the smaller or weaker nations. By creating and then manipulating conflicts, Russia is gaining leverage over the decision making on political and economic development, governance issues, and the external alliances of those countries. By challenging sovereignty of smaller states, and forcibly changing their borders, Russia is challenging existing international order and the basic principles of Helsinki Final Act on Security and Co-operation in Europe of 1975, to which the Soviet Union, and its successor state, Russian Federation, are signatories. For the interests of global stability, it is a priority to bring Russia back to the framework of the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) without any concessions on principles of sovereignty for all OSCE member states.     

Campaign appeals in Nigeria's 2007 gubernatorial elections

Ethnicity has emerged as a prominent issue in electoral contests around the world, particularly in countries that have embraced multiparty elections in the past few decades. What factors influence ethnic mobilization and the politicization of ethnicity? Although a number of factors have been hypothesized to influence the politicization of ethnicity in the comparative politics literature, many of these relationships have not been established through empirical testing. This study empirically tests a number of the hypotheses derived from the literature with our unique data set on candidates' ethnic appeals in the Nigerian 2007 gubernatorial elections. We find that political parties' use of ethnic appeals is correlated with the competitiveness of the election, nature of the campaign, partisan attachments, and social, demographic, and economic characteristics of the states. Of particular note is the finding that the salience of ethnic identity in the electorate influences political leaders' use of ethnic appeals.     

Expectations,Rivalries, and Civil War Duration

This paper criticizes the status quo position in African politics on two accounts. First it furthered the consolidation of the state system, and thereby, the failure of integration on the continental level. Second, it resulted in the spread and escalation of ethnic conflicts as a reaction to the suppression of the aspirations for independent expression and equality.

At one level, explaining ethnic conflict requires the reconstruction, in terms of a theory, of the specific context in which it occurs. In this regard, we suggest that ethnic conflicts in Africa are an outgrowth of the consideration that ethnicity constitutes the dominant mode of political practice akin to the state system of dependent, nurture capitalism. Four conditions determine the conflictive potentialities of the ethnic situation: communalization of political practice, catastrophic balance between ethnic groups, economic and political inequalities, and articulation of class conflict and ethnic organization.

Conflict and integration processes are grounded in the dynamics of identity formation. Our hypothesis is that identity formation is contingent on four elements: a) maximum structured relations; b) minimum differentiation; c) maximum ideological interpellation; and d) maximum unity of labor processes. By projecting these conditions on African politics, we advance the thesis that integration in Africa could be worked out as a mode of ethnic conflict resolution and prevention if, in addition to the progressive substantiation of the four elements mentioned above, it takes place on the continental level.     

Does ethnic voting harm democracy?

A large literature argues that ethnic voting is detrimental to democracy. Ethnic voting may have at least three effects: (1) it can reduce uncertainty over electoral results; (2) it may increase the winner-take-all character of elections; and (3) it can lead to a process of ethnic outbidding. However, few studies have tested the effect of ethnic voting on democracy using large-N quantitative analysis. Previous tests instead look at whether ethnic fractionalization hinders democracy. Yet, ethnic diversity does not necessarily lead to the politicization of ethnicity, and it is only when ethnicity is activated as a vehicle of political mobilization that it can destabilize democracy. This article tests the effect of ethnic voting in 58 democracies worldwide between 1992 and 2015. On balance, the evidence suggests that democracies with high ethnic voting levels tend to see the quality of their democracy reduce over time relative to those with less ethnic voting. Ethnic and religious fractionalization, however, have little effect.     

Conclusion: agency,context and emergent post-uprising regimes

This conclusion summarizes the evidence explaining the divergent trajectories taken by post Arab uprising states in terms of multiple variables, each illustrated by an iconic case, namely: State Failure and Competitive governance (Syria), Regime Restoration and Hybrid Governance (Egypt) and Polyarchic Governance (Tunisia). Factors include the starting point: levels of opposition mobilization and regimes' resilience – a function of their patrimonial-bureaucratic balance; whether or not a transition coalition forms is crucial for democratization prospects. Context also matters for democratization, particularly political economic factors, such as a balance of class power and a productive economy; political culture (level of societal identity cleavages) and a minimum of international intervention. Finally, the balance of agency between democracy movements, Islamists, the military and workers shapes democratization prospects.     

External Intervention in Ethnic Conflict

Recently, ethnicity has received greater attention from international conflict scholars. This study explores a new aspect of how ethnic composition of states and the power of ethnic kin affect external state interventions in ethnic conflicts. Here it is hypothesized that states with dominant ethnic groups but still-significant ethnic minorities are expected to be more prone to intervention in ethnic conflict than states without one of these two characteristics. A new measure is proposed to capture such variation in ethnic composition more precisely. Looking at large-N panel data, it is found that ethnically fractionalized states with dominant ethnic groups are indeed the most likely to intervene in ethnic conflicts. Additionally, the power of the embattled ethnic kin minority, as determined by its settlement patterns in the host state, also increases the likelihood of intervention. Traditional variables like proximity and capability retain statistical significance. However, ethnic variables have the strongest effects on interventions in ethnic conflict.     

Distant Relations: Identity and Materiality in Elite Discourse on Britain's Overseas Territories

This article examines representations of identity in two British Overseas Territories: St Helena in the South Atlantic and the British Virgin Islands in the Caribbean. While local forms of representative government exist here, political authority over several significant areas of political life is retained by the British state. As such, the connections between sovereignty, politics and identity are less clearly demarked than in many states. Based on interviews carried out on the islands in 2011, the article explores the way in which national and local identities in the territories are understood in relation to their link with the United Kingdom. The research identifies the importance of geography and economics as key elements in the construction of identity discourses in these territories. This emphasis points to the importance material factors have in shaping the way communities are imagined, particularly where sovereignty is held externally.     

中美摩擦的国际规则之争与全球可持续治理的中国方案

中美之争是全球治理陷入当前困境的外在表现。全球化发展至今,军事等传统安全问题已经不是全球治理最大的困扰,如何在全球权力结构变化之下调整治理思路、模式以应对资源枯竭、环境恶化等具有跨界特征的问题才是当务之急。现有的全球治理具备了奥兰·扬所提出的国际制度变迁的内部矛盾、权力结构变化、外部压力等要素,已处于明显变革之中。与全球治理并行推进的《变革我们的世界:2030年可持续发展议程》(简称"2030议程"),以新型伙伴关系合作、多元化等核心理念获得了全球最大范围的支持,并由于具有显著的外部性而承载着全球治理的责任。"2030议程"在理念普适性和目标务实性方面的优势,为全球治理以可持续治理为新内涵实现理念的转换和相关实践提供了机会。但不可忽视的是,目前主导力量不足以及公共产品匮乏的现状,将严重制约全球可持续治理的落实。中国提出的"一带一路"倡议,以"人类命运共同体"的理念指导,沿着可持续发展的道路推进相关国家、地区的有效发展和治理。~①中国在主动提供治理公共产品的同时,不断以"共商、共建、共享"原则和多方参与分享的创新理念提高相关国家的参与能力,为国际可持续治理培育和储备支持力量,并推动解决治理变革的关键制约因素。随着"一带一路"倡议不断得到全球认可和支持,全球可持续治理将不断从中获得现实和潜在的改革动力。因此中国可以更多的担当,从全球可持续治理的角度,通过理论的完善和实践的充实,将"一带一路"倡议定位于全球可持续治理的中国方案。     

STRUCTURES OF ETHNIC CONFLICT: REVOLUTION VERSUS SECESSION IN RWANDA AND SRI LANKA

A structural framework of ethnic politics is presented, contrasting the patterns of inter-ethnic relations found in ranked versus unranked systems of ethnic stratification. This framework allows us to account for why ethnic conflict erupts in some cases but not others, and why that conflict takes the form of ethnic revolution in some situations and ethnic separatism in others. This framework's explanatory utility is illustrated with a comparison of case studies: why ethnic separatism emerged in Sri Lanka while ethnic revolution occurred in Rwanda.     

The international dimension of minority separatism: An attempt at unravelling a Pandora box

A very important problem of today's world is the separatism of minorities and its international dimension, which has not been adequately studied within IR. This is an attempt to come to grips with the international relations of separatism and, in particular, with the normative framework of separatism and the international activity of separatist movements in their quest for self‐determination. The empirical basis were seven post‐war cases of armed separatism.