Managing Victim Confrontation: Auto Theft and Informal Sanction Threats

Objectives. This paper explores how offenders manage the prospect of victim confrontation during auto theft. Methods. Data were drawn from in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 35 active offenders recruited from the streets of a large Midwestern US city using snowball sampling methods. Results. Two contextual domains figured prominently in the offenders’ decision-making calculus: The area around the target and the target itself. The first galvanized the offenders’ attention to, and management of, informal social control. The second enjoined offenders to balance speed and stealth in breaching the target. Conclusions. Victim confrontation is an informal sanction that is distinct from both retaliation and traditional extralegal sanctions. The rarity with which it occurs in auto theft is likely due to confrontation avoidance measures offenders adopt at the front end of the offense and during the enactment process itself. The conceptual implications of victim confrontation in crime are explored in relation to the following five areas: (1) sanction celerity and present orientation; (2) sanction certainty and ambiguity aversion; (3) sanction interdependence; (4) violence avoidance; and (5) directions for future research.     

Establishing Connections: Gender,Motor Vehicle Theft,and Disposal Networks

Motor vehicle theft is an offense typically dominated by male offenders. As with all other major forms of criminal activity that are male dominated, women do participate in the theft of vehicles; yet, few studies have endeavored to examine their involvement in auto theft and even fewer have directly compared women's experiences alongside that of men's. This paper examines the gendered nature of motor vehicle theft through direct comparison of in‐depth interviews with 35 men and women actively involved in auto theft in St. Louis, Missouri. By tracing similarities and differences between men's and women's initiation into auto theft, enactment methods, and access to networks for vehicle and parts' disposal, we provide a contextual analysis of offender's perceptions and behavior. The findings indicate that while initiation into auto theft and property disposal networks are both governed by male gatekeepers, women experience greater barriers in gaining access to disposal networks than they do entry into auto theft offending which, in turn, leads to some key similarities in techniques between men and women.     

Automobile theft: Estimating the size of the criminal population

Animal abundance estimation procedures including a new method of Zelterman are applied in the criminological context of auto theft in the Australian Capital Territory. Using goodness-of-fit statistics and comparing the estimates with known clearance rates, it is estimated that during 1987 about 39% of offenders were charged with at least one count of auto theft. The results also indicate the extent of overrepresentation of juveniles in court statistics compared with their relative participation rate in auto theft.     

Sanctions, Perceptions, and Crime: Implications for Criminal Deterrence

Objectives

A survey of empirical research concerning the determinants of an individual’s perceptions of the risk of formal sanctions as a consequence of criminal behavior. The specific questions considered are: (1) How accurate is people’s knowledge about criminal sanctions? (2) How do people acquire and modify their subjective probabilities of punishment risk? (3) How do individuals act on their risk perceptions in specific criminal contexts?

Methods

Three broad classes of extant studies are reviewed. The first is the relationship between objective sanctions, sanction enforcement, and risk perceptions—research that includes calibration studies and correlational studies. The second is the relationship between punishment experiences (personal and vicarious) and change in risk perceptions, in particular, research that relies on formal models of Bayesian learning. The third is the responsiveness of would-be offenders to immediate environmental cues—a varied empirical tradition that encompasses vignette research, offender interviews, process tracing, and laboratory studies.

Results

First, research concerning the accuracy of risk perceptions suggests that the average citizen does a reasonable job of knowing what criminal penalties are statutorily allowed, but does a quite poor job of estimating the probability and magnitude of the penalties. On the other hand, studies which inquire about more common offenses (alcohol and marijuana use) from more crime-prone populations (young people, offenders) reveal that perceptions are consistently better calibrated to actual punishments. Second, research on perceptual updating indicates that personal experiences and, to a lesser degree, vicarious experiences with crime and punishment are salient determinants of changes in risk perceptions. Specifically, individuals who commit crime and successfully avoid arrest tend to lower their subjective probability of apprehension. Third, research on the situational context of crime decision making reveals that risk perceptions are highly malleable to proximal influences which include, but are not limited to, objective sanction risk. Situational risk perceptions appear to be particularly strongly influenced by substance use, peer presence, and arousal level.

Conclusions

The perceptual deterrence tradition is theoretically rich, and has been renewed in the last decade by creative empirical tests from a variety of social scientific disciplines. Many knowledge gaps and limitations remain, and ensuing research should assign high priority to such considerations as sampling strategies and the measurement of risk perceptions.     

Further notes on information,corruption, and optimal law enforcement

We consider two important notes on optimal law enforcement with corruption. First, we analyze the role of asymmetric information on the emergence of collusion between criminals and enforcers. Second, our paper proposes that the optimal criminal sanction for the underlying offense is not necessarily maximal. We achieve this result by coupling the criminal sanction for the underlying offense with a criminal sanction for corruption, both imposed on offenders. A higher criminal sanction for the underlying offense implies that the government must spend more resources to detect and punish corruption (since the likelihood of collusion increases). Thus, the government could reduce this sanction, save on detection, and increase the criminal sanction for corruption (in order to offset the negative effect on deterrence). We are grateful to Mitch Polinsky and two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions. The usual disclaimers apply.     

Auto Theft and Restrictive Deterrence

Although researchers have examined the attributes that make offenders more or less responsive to sanction threats, far less attention has centered on the manner in which responsiveness can lead to less detectible crime, or perhaps even more overall crime. Restrictive deterrence is the concept that explains this paradox. We explore it here using qualitative interviews with 35 active auto thieves. Findings suggest that auto thieves' restrictively deterrent decision-making strategies fell into three broad categories: discretionary target selection, normalcy illusions, and defiance. Discussion focuses on the data's conceptual implications for restrictive deterrence and offender decision-making.     

Bounded rationality of identity thieves: Using offender‐based research to inform policy*

Research Summary Data for this study were collected in semistructured interviews with 59 individuals serving time in federal prisons for identity theft. We explore how offenders' experiences and life circumstances affected their subjective assessments of risks and rewards and thus facilitated the decision to engage in identity theft. Our findings suggest that offenders perceive identity theft as an easy, rewarding, and relatively risk‐free way to fund their chosen lifestyles. Policy Implications The findings suggest that several situational crime‐prevention measures may be effective at curbing identity theft. Crime‐prevention programs that are geared toward removing excuses and advertising consequences may be effective in deterring potential offenders. We also recommend that rehabilitation programs for convicted identity thieves be cognitive‐based interventions aimed at changing the way offenders think about their crimes.     

Deterrence and arrest ratios

In the limited research on the origins of sanction threat perceptions, researchers have focused on either the effects of actively engaging in crime or the effects of formal sanctioning but rarely on both (i.e., the arrest ratio or the number of arrests relative to the number of crimes committed). This article extends this line of research by using a sample of Colorado inmates and measures arrest ratios and sanction perceptions for eight different crime types. Analyses reveal that the offenders report both significant experiential and arrest ratio effects. Theoretical and policy implications, limitations, and directions for future research are outlined.     

Fear of Crime among Gang and Non-Gang Offenders: Comparing the Effects of Perpetration,Victimization, and Neighborhood Factors

This is the first study to examine adult offenders’ fear of property, personal, and gang crime. We examine five research questions among 2,414 jail inmates, focusing on how afraid offenders are of crime. We compare current, ex-gang, and non-gang members. We ask if more experience with crime perpetration and victimization and more perceptions of social disorganization increase offenders’ fear of crime. Finally, we ask if the importance of these factors in predicting fear varies by gang status. Results show that offenders, generally, were not very afraid of crime. Although ex-gang and current gang members believed they were more likely to experience property, personal, and gang crime, they reported less fear than non-gang members. Crime perpetration did not influence offenders’ fear, but less experience with personal crime victimization predicted fear of personal and gang crime among non-gang members. The results also indicate that perceptions of social disorganization better explain fear among non-gang members than ex-gang and current gang members.     

TIME AGGREGATION AND TIME LAG IN MACRO-LEVEL DETERRENCE RESEARCH*

Recent arguments in research on individual-level deterrence suggest that the effect of perceived sanction risk on illegal behavior might occur over a shorter time period than the yearly lags typically incorporated in panel studies. This study raises the same issue for macro-level deterrence research by suggesting that panel studies using yearly data might have failed to capture the deterrent effect. The analysis uses ARIMA models with data aggregated monthly, quarterly, and semiannually to estimate the reciprocal effects between arrests and crimes for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft in Oklahoma City from 1967 through 1989. No effect of crimes on arrests is found, but significant effects of arrests on crimes appear for three of the four offenses in the shorter temporal aggregations. The results suggest a need to reconsider conclusions based on panel studies that have used time aggregations and time lags that might be too long to uncover deterrent effects.     

AUTO THEFT Offender and Offense Characteristics

Few empirical studies describe auto thieves. The most influential and frequently cited research is that by Wittenberg and Blusterier who characterize auto theft as a “favored-group” delinquency. The findings of the present study challenge this conclusion. Although the majority of those arrested for auto theft are white. blacks are disproportionately represented; most thieves come from lower-class neighborhoods: and the distribution of juvenile thieves by fathers’ occupational status does not appear to differ from that of other delinquents. Five types of out theft are suggested; the offender and offense characteristics are empirically examined.     

Of Race,Prison, and Perception: Seeking to Account for Racially Divergent Views on the Relative Severity of Sanctions

Several studies have found that offenders do not always perceive prison to be a harsher sanction than community-based punishments. Moreover, the literature shows that white offenders tend to estimate prison to be relatively more severe than do black offenders. The present study develops and tests eight possible explanations for the observed racial gap in perceptions. Relying on survey data from inmates in a large urban jail to establish sentencing preferences for black and white inmates, multivariate analyses show that the racial gap was attenuated but not eliminated by the explanations. This persistent racial difference in opinions of sanction severity is consistent with differential perceptions of criminal justice system fairness and merits additional research. The race gap has implications for theories on the effects of incarceration as well as sentencing practice.     

TOWARD A BIFURCATED THEORY OF EMOTIONAL DETERRENCE

Since Hobbes (1957 [1651] and Beccaria (1963 [1764]), scholars have theorized that the emotion of fear is critical for deterrence. Nevertheless, contemporary deterrence researchers have mostly overlooked the distinction between perceived sanction risk and fear of apprehension. Whereas perceived risk is a cognitive judgment, fear involves visceral feelings of anxiety or dread. Equally important, a theory explicating the influence of deterrence on both criminal propensity and situational offending has remained elusive. We develop a theoretical model in which perceived risk and fear are distinguished at both the general and situational levels. We test this theoretical model with data from a set of survey‐based experiments conducted in 2016 with a nationwide sample of adults (N = 965). We find that perceived risk and fear are empirically distinct and that perceived risk is positively related to fear at both the general and situational levels. Certain background and situational factors have indirect effects through perceived risk on fear. In turn, perceived risk has indirect effects through fear on both criminal propensity and situational intentions to offend. Fear's inclusion increases explanatory power for both criminal propensity and situational offending intentions. Fear is a stronger predictor than either self‐control or prior offending of situational intentions to offend.     

SELF-CONTROL, CRIMINAL MOTIVATION AND DETERRENCE: AN INVESTIGATION USING RUSSIAN RESPONDENTS

With data from respondents in Nizhni Novgorod, Russia, we address the generality of self-control theory. We also assess two hypotheses. The first focuses on the attractiveness of criminal acts, that is, motivation toward crime. The second concerns the contention that the mediating link between self-control and criminal conduct is the failure of those with less self-control to anticipate the long-term costs of misbehavior. Although the magnitude of associations between self-control and indicators of criminal behavior is about the same in this study as it is in others, which suggests that the theory is not culturally bound, those associations are largely overshadowed by criminal attraction. Consistent with that, failure to anticipate costly long-term consequences does not appear to be the mediating link between self-control and criminal behavior: the evidence shows no tendency for sanction fear to be greater among those with greater self-control. In fact, sanction fear is modestly and significantly related to the crime measures independent of self-control, though sanction fear also appears to be influenced by criminal attraction. The results suggest that in the production of criminal behavior, motivation may be more important than controls inhibiting criminal impulses.     

Studying deterrence with active residential burglars

Research designed to test deterrence/rational choice theory has contributed much to the knowledge of sanction threats, and the extent to which they are used in individuals' decision-making processes. The accumulation of knowledge about such perceptions among active and incarcerated offenders has surfaced only in recent years. We identified and interviewed active residential burglars to examine how they take into consideration the perceptions of risks and rewards before committing a burglary. Employing a series of estimation techniques which have not yet been used to study this research question, we find that offenders are influenced by the perceptions of both risk and rewards, though the latter are a stronger predictor of the decision to engage in a residential burglary. Theoretical implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Gender as social threat: A study of offender sex,situational factors,gender dynamics and social control

Purpose

Adopting a social threat perspective, the assessment explores how gender and social gender dynamics affect the labeling of convicted felons using a unique sentencing outcome - adjudication withheld.

Methods

This research investigates the direct effect of gender, and interactive impact of offender sex/crime type, on adjudication withheld for a sample of probationers (N = 110,419) sentenced in Florida between 2000 and 2002 using Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling. The study also explores how social gender dynamics moderate these relationships.

Results

Female offenders are significantly more likely than men to receive adjudication withheld. Women convicted of atypical crimes, such as assault, auto theft and drug sale/manufacturing have better odds of avoiding the felon label than females convicted of other crimes. Finally, measures of gendered threat do not increase the use of social control for female offenders.

Conclusions

Women have significantly better chances of avoiding a felon label; however, this varies by crime type. Criminal justice actors may be reluctant to penalize female offenders with a felon label and the stigma of violent crime convictions. Finally, gendered threat measures did not weaken the leniency shown to female probationers in Florida, possible due to the increased resources available to women in the study areas.     

GENDER AND CRIMINAL COURT OUTCOMES: AN HISTORICAL ANALYSIS*

Research on gender differences in criminal sanctions generally finds a pattern of more lenient outcomes for female offenders, while noting that the effect of gender varies in relation to a number of contextual influences. As yet, however, little attention has been paid to how the relationship of gender to court outcomes varies across different historical periods. This paper examines this issue, using data on male and female offenders committed to Middlesex County Jail, Ontario, during the Urban Reform Era (1871–1920). The findings reveal an overall pattern of more severe dispositions for female offenders in the past. At the same time, there is considerable variability in the impact of gender across different measures of sanction severity, various offender and offense attributes, and from the late nineteenth to the early twentieth century. The study highlights the need for research in this area to be sensitive to the historically specific nature of the relations among gender roles, formal and informal control mechanisms, and criminal sanctions.     

A Special Youth Sanction

Under the label ‘youth sanction’ (ungdomssanktion) a new type of sentence for juvenile offenders has been enacted by a 2001 amendment to the Danish Penal Code. The study reported here is an analysis of the 55 sentences imposed over the first year. Widespread disparity and disproportionality in sentencing was found. Statutory requirements regarding the seriousness of the individual case have not in all instances been satisfactorily established. The emergence of the new sanction implies a considerable increase in the intensity of intervention. Being based on a revitalized treatment ideology, the new criminal sanction legitimizes a vast widening of the control measures directed against troubled youth, in particular such offenders who has another ethnic background than Danish. No comprehensive programme or coherent vision regarding treatment methods has been stipulated, and professionals are bewildered and in disagreement regarding such issues. Nothing indicates that the costly efforts will prove to be adequate as rehabilitative and crime preventive tools. The introduction of the youth sanction is part of a contemporary criminal policy agenda dominated by a broad political coalition with an urge to demonstrate ability and readiness to cope with juvenile street crime by employing more ‘consequent’ measures, involving tougher and swifter punishment combined with coerced rehabilitation.     

Risk-based crime statistics: A forecasting comparison for burglary and auto theft

A major criticism of official statistics on crime is that they use inappropriate bases for computing rates. Here we investigate whether computing crime rates that contain in their denominators the number of exposures to risk of a specific event (e.g., residential burglary and auto theft) provides more accurate forecasts than employing the traditional FBI denominators as a base (e.g., the number of auto thefts and burglaries per 100, 000 persons living in the United States). Single equation, macrodynamic structural models are fitted to both the “traditional” and “alternative” forms of computing auto theft and burglary rates over the twenty-seven-year period from 1947–1974, in order to determine how well they perform on statistical and substantive grounds over the estimation period. Ex-post forecasts of the 1975–1979 observed crime rates, used to gauge the accuracy of these models, reveal few differences between the two kinds of rates in terms of how well they forecast. Both types of rates forecast well with the exogenous variables employed here and lead to similar substantive conclusions. The forecasts of the “traditional” rates are consistently, but only slightly, more accurate than those of the “alternative” rates (in most cases the differences are less than 1 percent). It is argued that the criticism of official data may be overstated and that little benefit accrues from the modification of the rate base for some purposes.     

DETERRING CORPORATE CRIME*

Using event history analysis, we examine the recidivism patterns of a sample of 38 corporations charged with one or more serious antitrust violations between 1928 and 1981 to see whether sanction experience decreases the likelihood of a firm's reoffending. Specifically, we analyze the effects of procedure type (e.g., civil, criminal, and administrative redress) and proxy measures of corporate deterrence while controlling for changes in antitrust law and the economic conditions of the firm, industry, and general economy. Though not robust, there is some evidence that past guilty verdicts and changes in penalties for lawbreaking from misdemeanors to felonies inhibit recidivism. We note, however, that industry characteristics are stronger by far in their effects on future illegality than formal sanction risk or consequence. The implications of these findings for organizational deterrence and corporate crime control are discussed.