Editors’ Introduction

Abstract

This article explains why the United States has not fought a preventive war against North Korea despite that country’s moves to arm itself with nuclear weapons. I argue that the absence of war is mainly attributable to military strategies that the US military has with regard to North Korea. With only attrition strategies available, the United States neither expects to lose a precious military opportunity nor anticipates grave future vulnerabilities vis-à-vis North Korea. The prospect of a costly attritional campaign deters both Washington and Pyongyang from resorting to military force. Straightforward attrition strategies also allow little chance for miscalculation, thereby making inadvertent escalation to war unlikely. The research finds sufficient evidence for my argument, whereas conventional explanations offered by international relations theory fall short when applied to this case.     

Statement on peace and reunification of the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

We who have been praying and working for peace and the reunification of Korea would like to express our deep concerns about the rising tensions surrounding the north Korean nuclear controversy and the potentially imminent war on the Korean peninsula. We still remember vividly the nightmare of the Korean War beginning 25 June 1950, and we have endured tremendously painful experiences for the last half century because of the division of our country. We would like to express our positions to the governments of the Republic of Korea (ROK), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), the United States, and to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as we firmly believe that the shortest route to reunification is through the reconciliation and solidarity of the Korean people:     

Introduction

Abstract

“The only thing that convinces people like Kim II Sung is the threat of force and extinction,” blasted U.S. senator John McCain as the nuclear crisis in Korea neared the flashpoint in early June 1994. His words rang out as the multilateral tension surrounding North Korea's nuclear program escalated after more than a year of rapid policy vacillations and fluctuating rhetoric. The United States threatened to seek sanctions in the U.N. Security Council, and North Korea vowed to treat any international aggression as an act of war. What is remarkable about McCain's war yearnings, however, is not their aberrance in the otherwise cool-headed world of international diplomacy, but their similarity to imperial declarations toward North Korea since the battles of the Korean War. It is a sentiment routinely echoed by the mainstream Western press.     

Dimensions of security

Abstract

The Arab uprisings’ failure to bring about either the scale or type of political change in the Maghreb that it initially seemed to promise belies the significance of its impact on the region. While Algeria, Mauritania and Morocco continue to be ruled by the same competitive authoritarian regimes that held power when the protests began, they, and the new governments in Tunisia and Libya, must now negotiate an altered and more dangerous security environment than before. The unsettling of Tunisia’s security apparatus and the outbreak of full-blown civil war in Libya have created new opportunities for terror and criminal groups to thrive and expand. The primary aim of this special issue is to chart and explain many of the critical changes in the Maghreb’s security environment that have occurred as a result of the Arab Spring. Each of the articles collected here identifies and analyses at least one important security issue in one or more Maghreb country as well as explain how that issue has emerged in response to or been affected by the Arab Spring.     

US Foreign Policy and the Korean War

Abstract

Sometimes called the “Forgotten War” because Americans pay so little attention to it, the Korean War was nevertheless a pivotal event in US foreign policy. Three themes will be integrated into this article as it analyzes Korean War policy. First, the Korean War heightened the debates and divisions among US foreign policymakers. If Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor helped to silence these divisions, then President Truman’s handling of North Korea’s 1950 invasion of South Korea helped resurrect them. Second, while foreign policy goals are generally assumed to drive the objectives of war in the classic Clausewitzian sense, the opposite frequently occurred in Korea as changes on the battlefield drove policy objectives of officials in Washington. Third, although the Americans, Chinese and Soviets all worked assiduously to keep the Korean War limited to the Korean Peninsula, the war had repercussions far beyond the Korean battlefield. Its ramifications were felt in Taiwan, Vietnam, Europe and in US defense expenditures as well.     

Cash or Combat? America’s Asian Alliances During the War in Afghanistan

Abstract

A basic trade-off in military cooperation exists: States must respond to the dominant ally’s demands and act as a reliable partner while simultaneously making a decision that is acceptable to domestic audiences. We argue that compensatory burden-sharing strategies are imperfect but dependable solutions to manage foreign policy decisions at the domestic and alliance levels. Our theoretical expectations are tested using the US-Japan and US-Republic of Korea alliances and, in particular, the contribution of each country to the war in Afghanistan. We find that foreign aid commitments to third parties are made as a form of compensation when alliance expectations are substantial, but the secondary ally's ability to contribute militarily is highly constrained. Foreign aid has therefore served as an alliance management tool.     

Berkeley

Abstract

CCAS now has a membership of about 65 here at Berkeley. We struggle on meeting in between National Guard search and destroy operations. Franz Schurmann and David Marr went to Stockholm to talk to the NLF and the DRV people. A press conference for them was just beginning when the helicopter swept over Sproul Plaza spraying CN gas. Several nights later they held forth at a large CCAS gathering to discuss their trip and what we as “Asian Scholars” might do about a war which obviously has not ended.     

The Prisoner Dilemma: Britain,Germany, and the Repatriation of Indian Prisoners of War

Abstract

Between October 1914 and December 1915, nearly 135,000 Indian riflemen—known as sepoys—fought in the trenches of France and Belgium at the battles of Ypres, Festubert, Givenchy, Neuve Chapelle, Second Ypres and Loos, suffering some 34,252 casualties. At a prisoner of war camp outside Berlin, Indian revolutionaries and emissaries from the Ottoman Empire attempted to convert the allegiances of the sepoys in their custody with a combination of pan-Islamic and nationalist appeals. Although this campaign ultimately failed, it profoundly shaped British repatriation policy at the end of the war when, cautioned Secretary of State for India Austen Chamberlain, the British could not allow men who had been exposed to ‘strongly hostile influences’ to return home unmonitored. The 1918 armistice and British repatriation policy therefore presented a host of new challenges to Britain’s colonial subjects from South Asia as they navigated the post-war imperial landscape and secured what was most important to them—safe transportation home.     

Rejoinder to Adam Fforde

Abstract

The issue of scholarship regarding Asian socialist countries is by no means a new one. This has faced China scholars for a long time. The difficulties of gaining access to these countries, assessing information from elusive sources, and gathering data are common to all scholars of countries like China, Korea, and Vietnam. Of course, research conditions are less than ideal. Vietnam, Korea and China are to a large extent closed societies, even if we speak their languages. However, as I stated in the beginning of my article, my present purpose is to raise issues that I think should be discussed, and not to do an original piece based on anthropological fieldwork. But more than this, it seems to me that given the limited commentary on socialist states as Vietnam, any new issues that come up should be given wider currency. And this was another major purpose of my article—to bring to readers of the Bulletin new debates which have focused on Vietnam, specifically in French academic circles, among a number of Vietnamese economists and historians. It was in the context of these debates that I focus on selected issues and offer some judgments of my own.     

The North Korea Problem: Perspectives on the Nuclear Debate,Economic Reforms and Beyond

ABSTRACT

Despite a plethora of research on North Korea, understanding and managing the challenges posed by the country have long been complicated with no simple solution to put an end to this decades-long security and economic predicament on the Korean Peninsula. With the potential for international conflict, attention must be given to the converging messages emerging from the scholarly works reviewed in this article: Glyn Ford, Talking to North Korea: Ending the Nuclear Standoff, Van Jackson, On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War and William Overholt’s collection North Korea: Peace? Nuclear War? These works speak to the need to: take seriously the risk of nuclear war; consider the connectedness of the North’s decades-long security and economic reform dilemmas; and to acknowledge that the mistrust that is deeply rooted on all sides must be mitigated to bring peace. These books are published at a critical juncture of increased tensions following a highly publicised but remarkably short-lived effort at a breakthrough on the Korean nuclear issue, Pyongyang’s rapidly evolving security posture and its perennial domestic challenges. Each of these volumes provides valuable insights on these challenges for North Korea and internationally.     

Disruption and decline: the gendered consequences of civil war and political transition for education in Tajikistan

ABSTRACT

The sweeping political transition from the Soviet Union to independence in Tajikistan was accompanied by a devastating civil war. Social, economic, and demographic change followed. This research examines a critical indicator of human welfare and stability at the micro- and macro-levels: educational attainment and mobility. Using the 2007 Tajik Living Standards Survey, I compare cohorts educated before, during, and after the civil war. I examine the impact of the war and the political transition on educational attainment and mobility. The findings suggest that the consequences of civil war and political transition in Tajikistan were gendered: boys’ attainment was disrupted when they lived in a conflict-affected area and were 16-to-17 years old when the war began; girls’ attainment decline was more widespread. This research contributes to our understanding of the long-term consequences of political events on human capital accumulation over the life course.     

Introduction to the supplement

Abstract

Today the American press focuses on what might be called the domestic consequences of United States policy toward Korea. We read about the troop withdrawal issue, the unfolding Korea Lobby scandal, and, perhaps, Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) activities within the U.S. The following supplement, however, reminds us of the far worse consequences of American and Korean policies for those who remain within Korea. It was the U.S. CIA which helped to set up the KCIA, thereby providing to the diffuse authoritarianism of the Rhee regime period (1948–1960) an organizational weapon which has kept Park in power through sixteen years of Korean dissent and upheaval: it is the south Korean people who continue to suffer the consequences. It was the Johnson and Nixon administrations which sanctioned what amounted to bribery, first to get the south Koreans to commit troops in the Vietnam War, and then to keep them there as Nixon and Kissinger prolonged the war. It was the Nixon administration which kept a conspicuous silence when Park in 1972 ripped up the old constitution, did away with even the fiction of procedural democracy, and instituted a frankly authoritarian regime.     

LIMITED WAR,UNLIMITED TARGETS

In the early days of the Korean War, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) had a policy of precision bombing military targets only. Policy-makers in Washington, D.C., formulated this policy to ensure the protection of Korean civilians and to increase the effectiveness of their air operations. Senior USAF officers in Korea, however, were unhappy about the limitations placed on them by Washington. In their strategic air operations against targets in North Korea USAF officers followed Washington's precision bombing policy, but they insisted that USAF bombers be permitted to use incendiary bombs against population centers in North Korea. China's entry into the war in November 1950 led to a drastic change in the precision bombing policy. On 5 November 1950, when the UN forces began suffering defeat after defeat in battles with the new enemy, General Douglas MacArthur designated cities and villages in North Korea as “main bombing targets” and permitted the use of incendiary bombs, which had been used in attacks against Japanese cities during World War II. From that point until the end of the war, the USAF regarded North Korean cities and villages as their crucial targets as political and military occasion demanded.     

The Syrian refugees—left to their fate

ABSTRACT

The war in Syria led to one of the worst refugee crises experienced by the Middle East in recent decades. Its scope is unprecedented and has far-reaching implications not only for Syria or what remains of it, but for the receiving countries as well. In some cases, such as Lebanon or Jordan, the mass of newcomers may have an unsettling and disruptive effect on the demography of their host country. Syrian Refugees who found shelter in neighbouring countries may be able to return home or, alternatively, they may be able to be absorbed relatively easily in their current places of residence. With regard to the refugees in Europe, it is doubtful that they will ever return to their homeland, and, in any case, the Syrian regime is not at all interested in their return. Thus, for many more years even after the war in Syria ends, the problem of the refugees will undoubtedly remain complex, unresolved and an enduring burden on the host countries.

Abbreviation: EU: European Union; ISIS: the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria; PPS: the Syrian National Party; SNC: Syrian National Council; UN: United Nations; UNCHR: the UN High commisioner for Refugees     

Managing Small Allies Amidst Patron–Adversary Rapprochement: A Tale of Two Koreas

ABSTRACT

What explains variation in how a patron manages its existing alliance with a client state when improving relations with an adversary? I theorize that the patron’s alliance management strategy is influenced by the client’s degree of bargaining power over its patron. Bargaining power derives from the availability of an outside option. Using archival and interview evidence, I show variation in alliance bargaining dynamics during US–China rapprochement. While the United States was dismissive toward South Korea, China was highly placating toward North Korea, making concessions and providing compensation. However, China became more dismissive during Sino-South Korean normalization, when North Korea’s bargaining power decreased. The findings have important policy implications for understanding how a patron could simultaneously manage alliance and adversary relationships.     

The origins of the Vietnamese revolution: Taking the long view

Abstract

Americans knew little about Vietnam when they assumed command of the Indochina War in 1954. There were no American scholars who devoted their careers to its study, and, with the exception of Virginia Thompson's French Indochina and a few other works, there was no American body of work on the subject. And so, to better understand the political and social forces confronting them, Americans took possession of the entire French work on Vietnam as part of their legacy of war. Thus, as the first American scholars began to study the Vietnamese revolution, they built on the foundation laid by decades of French scholarly effort.     

Economic changes during the Indian emergency

Abstract

North Korea (or the Democratic People's Republic of Korea—DPRK), more than any other industrial country, is a terra incognita in the Western consciousness. Most commonly it is abhorred as the embodiment of the irrational, the fanatical, and the threatening, and even among Western progressives it is dismissed as grotesque and/or irrelevant. Yet it is an important country and one that deserves close attention.     

“Seoul will become a sea of fire…”

Abstract

Seoul, 19 March 1994: People watching the evening news are terrified. The network stations repeatedly show Park Yong Soo, the North Korean representative at the eighth working-level meeting between North and South Korea at Panmunjom, retorting angrily to Song Yong Dae, his South Korean counterpart. “Seoul is not far from here,” he declares, “If there is a war, it will become a sea of fire.” The next day disturbing headlines splash across the morning and evening newspapers: “Seoul will become a sea of fire.”     

Women of Japan and Korea: Continuity and Change,by Joyce Gelb and Marian Lief Palley,eds.

Abstract

Japan and Korea as neighboring countries share some basic similarities in their cultural heritage. Their languages, which belong to the Altaic family, exhibit a striking resemblance in grammatical structure. Yet their writing systems, the kana syllabaries and the han'gul alphabets, are distinct. Both societies have been influenced by Confucianism and Buddhism, but the place of Buddhism in contemporary Japan and Korea is quite different, and the Confucian legacy is believed to be much stronger in Korea than in Japan. The traditional family systems of Japan and Korea were both patrilineally organized, but the details of the descent rules differ markedly. In short, Japan and Korea share the general traits of East Asian civilization, but diverge in the details of their cultural traditions.     

The dark valley illuminated: Recent trends in studies of the postwar Japanese economy

Abstract

Historians are continually fascinated by the way a new idea, seemingly independently and simultaneously, emerges from many minds at once. Such ideas step assuredly into the mental environment that has been prepared for them by material conditions, but they seem to belong so naturally that it is easy to forget to question how they arrived. In the case of historians this often involves a re-examination of a historical period. The most recent years to emerge, reorganized in a novel interpretation, are those of World War Two. In several recent publications the war has been described as the crucible for Japan's postwar growth. This presents the embryo of a new theory of the origins of Japanese economic growth, competing with the earlier explanations of culture, miracles, and rational and evolutionary modernization.