A New Era in Taiwan Politics and its Implications

Taiwan faces an uncertain future after the electoral victory of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the January 2016 elections. The election results, which reflected growing pro-independence sentiments amongst a younger generation of Taiwanese, have set Taiwan on a collision course with China, which is increasingly impatient for reunification to occur. The new US president, Donald Trump, has also added to the tensions by openly questioning the “One China” policy. Another Taiwan Strait crisis today would be fraught with immense risks due to China's dramatic economic and military rise which has altered the regional power balance. Given the increasingly tense China-US strategic rivalry, the US is also not likely to sit idly by should China attack Taiwan. However, the key player in resolving the Taiwan problem is China. For various reasons, it is in fact in China's interest to be patient with the current situation, and maintain the status quo for the immediate and medium-term future, while it constructs a new strategy that could win over the people of Taiwan, since true reunification can only occur if the people on Taiwan willingly accept it.     

ASIAN WAR MACHINES

ABSTRACT

The South Asian security landscape is increasingly dominated by a complex four-way dynamic between India, Pakistan, China, and the United States. The stresses and strains of the relationships between these states directly affect the prospects for peace and prosperity for almost half of humanity. This article describes some of the military contours of this landscape, with a focus on strategic postures, weapon acquisitions, and the role of nuclear weapons. It maps the India–Pakistan arms race over the past decade, the economic constraints on the two states, the role of China and the United States as weapons suppliers, and the risk and consequences for nuclear war. The authors then look at India's relationship with China, which is marked by both cooperation and competition, and the rise of China as a close military, political, and economic ally of Pakistan. While the United States has had long-standing cooperative relationships with both India and Pakistan, these relationships have been undergoing major shifts over the last two decades. U.S. concerns about China's increasing military and economic power have also intensified over this period as well. Of particular significance has been the effort to create a U.S.–India strategic partnership to balance and contain a rising China, which may become a central feature of the emerging global order. This article also offers a brief overview of what is publicly known about the nuclear arsenals of the four countries, ongoing production of weapons-usable fissile materials in Pakistan and India, as well as the race to build longer-range missiles.     

The Russian-U.S. Military balance in the post-cold War Asia-Pacific region and the “China Threat”

The United States and the Soviet Union/Russia have undertaken major arms reduction in the Asia-Pacific region since the late 1980s, but they have not withdrawn from the region. The United States and Russia will maintain greater military forces than any other countries in the region. China has increased its military strength steadily due to its booming economy. However, Chinese military modernization has been modest compared with other countries in the region and its rapidly growing economy. China focuses on economic development; it is not filling the “power vacuum” because there is no such vacuum left in the Asia-Pacific region.     

Why Japan still matters

This article challenges the prevailing view that China is displacing Japan as Asia's leader and the pre-eminent power in Asia. On the contrary, it argues that in understanding the future of Northeast Asia and the broader Asia–Pacific, it would be a mistake to look only to a rising China and to relegate Japan to a diminishing position. China's rise does not automatically herald Japan's decline. Japan is an emerging, not a retreating power. The rise of China is both obscuring and accelerating the transformation in Japan's regional and global position. Japan is increasing its economic power, technological capabilities, military reach, soft power and diplomatic influence. Furthermore, the rise of China makes Japan strategically more important to the United States and to other countries in the Asia Pacific. Japan will become the main regional counterweight to China and an indispensable partner in America's strategy of balancing China.     

Competitive Cooperation for Regional Development: Japan's New Strategy towards Rising China

This article questions why Japan has taken a neutral position in the Sino‐American trade tensions in 2018, despite its political rivalry with Beijing. It claims that the Japanese strategy towards China between 2012 and 2018 has moved from confrontational competition to competitive cooperation over third‐country markets; this is because of their shared beliefs and methodology regarding regional development. The paper undertakes three major tasks. Firstly, it compares Chinese and Japanese academic discussions regarding East Asia. It finds that experts on both sides admit the significant implications of the politico‐economic divide in the regional system. However, the realistic Chinese tend to consider the divide as a problem to be solved through power, whereas the more liberal Japanese expect it to provide a coordinating function for the regional order as a whole. Secondly, the article reviews the shifts in the Japanese government's behaviours toward China in recent years. It argues that Japan has moved for collaboration with China to maintain the liberal rule‐based order in the region. Finally, founded on the estimate of China's economic leverage over its neighbours, the paper claims that Japan will expand its responsibility in order formation in East Asia in future, becoming more independent from American influences.     

The Implications of Taiwan's Declining Defense

Taiwan's declining defense capability has increasingly tilted the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait towards China. While the current status quo suits Taiwan's domestic political realities and postpones the Taiwan question to the future, its declining defense capabilities vis-à-vis China hold important implications for Taiwan. They include the reduction of its political bargaining power with China, the undermining of stability in the Taiwan Strait as China increasingly has a viable military option, and ultimately decreases the probability that the status quo can be maintained. Left unattended, Taiwan's declining defense capabilities narrow Taiwan's options and could lead to unpalatable outcomes, including sudden crisis and conflict, and the ultimate resolution of the Taiwan problem on China's terms.     

How the East Asian Crisis Will Change International Relations

We may expect regional response to the tension and conflict in Asia begun by China in 2009 gradually to transform the international order in that region, where the United States has been the active great power. Today the United States is so overextended in commitments and so lacking in force structure (and political will) that she can no longer play that role. Nor, however, has China succeeded in her initial assumption that regional powers would defer to her vastly increased military power. Unless China finds a way to extricate herself, we may expect regional powers, each strengthening herself, to grow closer together as a group in which Tokyo plays an unaccustomed central role, both in diplomacy and arms supply, although in coordination with the United States. North Korea is also highly dangerous. The likely outcome is greater military strength generally, with South Korea and Japan nuclear powers.     

Changing Global Landscape and Enhanced US Engagement with Asia—Challenges and Emerging Trends

United States President Barack Obama's announcement of significant shifts in US polices towards the Middle East and East Asia in 2009 has affected the global strategic landscape. President Obama's announcement of enhanced US engagement with Asia has posed certain challenges to the prevailing regional architecture of ASEAN centric institutions and ASEAN centrality which has fostered peace and stability, and prosperity in the region. The rise of China and its growing political and economic influence in the region and its military modernisation have aroused US concern that a rising China could in the future challenge its primacy in the Asia region. President Obama's announcement of a web of military alliances of treaty allies and strategic partners with the stationing of US marines in Darwin in November 2011 was perceived by China as an attempt by the US to contain China or constrain its rise. ASEAN is uneasy about any emergence of big power rivalry in the region.     

China's nuclear arms development and arms transfers to the Third World

China's increasing military expenditures are often cited as a main cause of concern for China's neighbors. The fact that China's military buildup has not been limited to conventional forces — it has been developing a nuclear arsenal since the early 1970s —exponentially increases the unease felt by other nations in East Asia. Shigeo Hiramatsu, professor of China Studies at Kyorin University, here explores China's advancing nuclear arms program and the issue of arms transfers to the Third World.     

China's Economic and Social Development and the International Scene

China's phenomenal economic growth had a tremendous impact on the international scene, in terms of both China's international behavior and the state of the international system. China has become a welcomed presence in the international community in many ways. However, there are also consequences of growth that cause international concern: the rapid growth of its military capability without accompanying improvements in transparency, strengthened ties with problem states caused by growing domestic energy demands, and possible diversion of domestic discontents abroad that might be intensified by growing nationalism. In terms of the international system, the most notable is China's expanding presence in the surrounding region, but it is not leading to a China-centered region because of other important concurrent developments. The growing relationship between China and another rapidly rising power, India, and the US involvement with both countries are leading to the formation of a new triangular relationship in Asia.     

Whither Mr Abe's Japan?

This article reviews Japan's strategic options and policy initiatives under Prime Minister Abe, taking into consideration strategic changes in the region; chiefly a rising China and a United States approaching geopolitical retreat, and the policy implications of these developments. Mr Abe's announced goal is to restore Japan to its once great power status, and thus far success is proving elusive.

MAIN ARGUMENT

Hurdles in Mr Abe's path include the differing perceptions between Japan and its neighbours regarding Japan's history, and the deeply entrenched nature of these differences pose a significant barrier. A related aspect is the territorial disputes. A second task is to be a “normal” nation, that is exercising greater independence in security matters and matters of economic policy, and here differences arise with Japan's main ally, the United States. Furthermore Mr Abe also needs to convince the Japanese public as well as Japan's prospective allies about his views regarding Japan's security role in the region. A third task is to increase Japan's economic weight by turning around the Japanese economy from its existing stasis to sustained, robust growth.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Mr Abe is making urgent policy efforts in all directions and the rather uneven outcome experienced thus far has not deterred him, thus creating uncertainty for Japan, and enhancing the feeling of insecurity in the region. The ostensible policy choice facing Mr Abe now is to either persist with his existing policies, hence entrenching the increasing tensions in the region, or to accept a rapidly rising China and formulate policies more accommodative of that development.     

Diplomatic Objectives in Trade Politics: The Development of the China-Japan-Korea FTA

This article seeks to analyze the development of free trade agreement (FTA) policies adopted by China, Japan, and South Korea with particular interests in the trilateral FTA. It seeks to address what the determinant factors that have conditioned the development of the trilateral FTA are. While the three governments began the informal joint study of the trilateral FTA in 2003, they pursued diverse trade strategies that disturbed a shift to formal negotiations. However, China's strategy to hedge against the US influence in East Asia became a catalyst in shifting from the long-lasting study stage to the launching of negotiations. Moreover, Japan's strategy to participate in TPP negotiations as a soft balancing against China through closer political linkages with the United States weakened China's and South Korea's willingness to engage in the trilateral FTA positively. Thus, the three countries’ commitments to the trilateral FTA were primarily confined by their specific diplomatic objectives responding to the political-economic evolutions in the Asia-Pacific region.     

TAIWAN'S GROWING SECURITY VULNERABILITY: FROM CHEN SHUI-BIAN TO MA YING-JIU

Taiwan-China relations have experienced a remarkable détente since KMT candidate and cross-strait moderate Ma Ying-Jiu was elected president on Formosa in 2008. Yet despite the rapprochement and its concomitant reduction of military tensions across the Taiwan Strait, the island's security position vis-à-vis China has been in steady decline since the early 2000s. Ma's expectation that closer economic and diplomatic ties with Beijing will result in greater international space for Taiwan have so far not yet been realised. On the contrary, deeper connections with the mainland seem to but accelerate the growth of Taiwan's security vulnerability.     

The Conventional Missile Capabilities of China's Second Artillery Force: Cornerstone of Deterrence and Warfighting

Abstract

Since its establishment in the early 1990s, the conventional missile component of the People's Liberation Army's Second Artillery Force (SAF) has emerged as a centerpiece of China's accelerating military modernization program. The conventional missile force has grown in size and sophistication, and China has developed a doctrine for its employment. Chinese military publications emphasize that it plays an increasingly important role in deterrence and warfighting. In particular, Chinese sources underscore its role in achieving information dominance, air superiority, and sea control as well as countering third-party intervention. China's development of advanced conventional missile capabilities highlights the growing vulnerability of fixed bases and surface ships. Moreover, organizational tendencies, could fuel dangerous escalation. In response to these challenges, the United States must adapt its traditional approach to military operations and deterrence in the Asia-Pacific.     

The rise of China: Threats,uncertainties, and opportunities

The attraction of China's enormous market is lending strength to its position in international negotiations, and China's high rate of economic development is serving to reinforce the legitimacy of its political system. But China's increasing defense expenditures, made possible by such economic growth, are heightening tension among neighboring countries who perceive China as a threat. Kiichi Saeki examines these positive and negative implications of China's rapid economic growth. Saeki is concurrently executive advisor to IIPS and vice president of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain. He was formerly the president and chairman of Nomura Research Institute and president of the Defense College.     

中美关系和亚太地区的“双领导体制”

21世纪初以来,中美关系和亚太地区国际关系均发生了重大变化。随着综合国力的日益增强,中国在国际经济、贸易和金融领域中开始发挥领头羊的作用。与此同时,美国作为全球范围内唯一的超级大国,在军事、安全及政治领域仍然发挥着决定性的领导作用。中美两国在亚太地区不同领域中分别发挥领导作用的现象,即本文所说的"双领导体制"。这一"双领导体制"不仅建立了中美两国在特定领域内优势互补的发展模式,也将在一定程度上确保亚太地区在未来相当长时期内的稳定与发展。     

The legacy of the Korean War: Impact on U.S.-Taiwan relations

If there had not been a Korean War, the Chinese Communists would probably have invaded Taiwan in 1950. After the outbreak of the Korean War, the United States began to reverse its hands-off policy toward the Chinese Nationalists on Taiwan. The Korean War first compelled the United States to grant military aid to Taiwan and then put the island under U.S. protection. The war forestalled the deterioration of the ROC’s international status, but the legal status of Taiwan became undetermined in the eyes of U.S. policymakers. U.S. economic aid prevented Taiwan from sliding into an economic depression in the 1950s, and greatly contributed to the island’s later economic takeoff. He is the author ofThe Taiwan Security Triangle (Taipei: Laureate Publishing Company, 1989).     

On new rules for destroying old countries

The attacks on 11 September 2001 were not a major security threat to the United States, but they did create the political conditions for the implementation of an aggressive agenda by the Bush administration to assert U.S. dominance over the global control of oil and to establish an arc of military bases to contain China. Responding to Gowan, this article suggests that bid is unlikely to succeed because the concentration of military strength in the United States is paralleled by a concentration of financial strength in East and Southeast Asia. Though its Asian allies have been more supportive of the U.S. invasion of Iraq than their European counterparts, growing economic integration along Asia's Pacific coasts is likely to lead to a reduction in capital inflows to the United States and thereby aggravate the consequences of its high current accounts deficits and its low rates of domestic savings. The Bush administration's conservative social policies and anti-foreigner zeitgeist is also sapping the competitive edge of the U.S. economy in new technologies.     

North Korea – Challenge for the Major Powers

Abstract

Since North Korea is one of the world's most enigmatic societies, it is difficult to understand precisely the factors determining its policies. The prevailing power structure, the primary political considerations, and the stability of the current order are each subject to question. Meanwhile, a history of relations between the United States and North Korea reveals repeated movements forward followed by renewed breakdowns. In general terms, China is a crucial actor as the North's chief economic and strategic supporter, with South Korea also vitally important. Russia currently plays a limited role, and relations between Japan and North Korea are hostile. At the close of 2006, negotiations are once again underway but with no agreements reached. Thus, it is difficult to be optimistic about an early resolution of the key issues despite some favorable signs.     

特朗普时期美朝关系变化轨迹与未来走向

特朗普就任美国总统以来,美朝关系经历了对抗与危机时期、缓和与蜜月时期以及僵持时期三个阶段。在对抗与危机时期,美国对朝采取经济制裁、军事演习等极限施压举措;在缓和与蜜月时期,美国对朝采取首脑峰会、工作磋商的接触政策;在僵持时期,美国对朝"谈压并举"。新冠肺炎疫情也没有给美朝关系改善提供机会之窗。而贯穿始终的是美国对朝制裁毫不放松。特朗普本人及其幕僚对奥巴马政府的对朝政策十分不满,积极应对突飞猛进的朝鲜核导技术,掌握在东北亚地缘战略竞争中的主导权。这成为特朗普政府对朝政策的动因。特朗普政府对朝政策推动了无核化谈判的展开和朝鲜半岛局势的缓和,但美朝无核化谈判依然陷入梗阻。