Accuracy Rates of Ancestry Estimation by Forensic Anthropologists Using Identified Forensic Cases

A common task in forensic anthropology involves the estimation of the ancestry of a decedent by comparing their skeletal morphology and measurements to skeletons of individuals from known geographic groups. However, the accuracy rates of ancestry estimation methods in actual forensic casework have rarely been studied. This article uses 99 forensic cases with identified skeletal remains to develop accuracy rates for ancestry estimations conducted by forensic anthropologists. The overall rate of correct ancestry estimation from these cases is 90.9%, which is comparable to most research‐derived rates and those reported by individual practitioners. Statistical tests showed no significant difference in accuracy rates depending on examiner education level or on the estimated or identified ancestry. More recent cases showed a significantly higher accuracy rate. The incorporation of metric analyses into the ancestry estimate in these cases led to a higher accuracy rate.     

A Method for Estimating Sex Using Metric Analysis of the Scapula*

Abstract: The most accurate and precise methods for the assessment of age and stature often require knowledge of sex. Thus, being able to correctly identify sex from skeletal remains is critical in the forensic context. The presence of the os coxae or skull can never be guaranteed, making the development of reliable methods of sex estimation using other skeletal elements necessary. Using a 724 individual calibration sample from the Hamann‐Todd collection, this study identifies sexual dimorphism in the human scapula, and presents a new five‐variable discriminant function for sex estimation. The overall accuracy of this method proved to be 95.7% on the cross‐validated calibration sample, 92.5% on an 80 individual test sample from the Hamann‐Todd collection, and 84.4% on a 32 individual test sample from the skeletal collection of the Wichita State University Biological Anthropology Laboratory. Additionally, a slightly less accurate two‐variable model was developed and has cross‐validated accuracy of 91.3%.     

Sex Determination from the Second Cervical Vertebra: A Test of Wescott’s Method on a Modern American Sample*

Abstract: Numerous methods for establishing a biological profile exist; however, many of these methods rely on the recovery of several specific bones or on fragile skeletal elements that are sometimes irrecoverable. It is for this reason new methods utilizing other previously under‐documented bones should be established and tested by the forensic anthropological community. This study tests the accuracy of Wescott’s (J Forensic Sci 2000;45(2)) method for determining sex from the second cervical vertebra. Specimens were drawn from the donated skeletal collection curated at the Hamilton County Forensic Center (n = 57) and the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection (n = 243). Both intra‐ and inter‐observer error rates were low and accurate classifications ranged from 78% (females‐Function 1) to 90.6% (males‐Function 5). Of the five functions, Function 4 achieved the highest overall accuracy, with 260 individuals (86.7%) falling into the correct category. Overall, this method is an effective classificatory tool for sex estimation.     

A Method for Estimating Sex Using the Clavicle,Humerus, Radius,and Ulna

Sex estimation from skeletal remains can be an important part of preliminary identification. The best source of information for estimating sex is the pelvis but it is not always available for analysis. For these cases, a probabilistic sex estimation method is presented using combinations of standard and alternative measurements of the clavicle, humerus, radius, and ulna. Various equations are developed that are not population specific and that are applicable in various recovery scenarios. The equations were tested using four independent samples (n > 370), including a forensic sample. Allocation accuracies vary by test sample and equation and are consistently good (87.4–97.5%) except for a sample of very small males that show the extreme effects of poverty and mortality bias. For many of the cases where allocation was incorrect, the probabilistic approach indicated that no confidence should be placed in the incorrect allocation and the unknown should be classified as sex indeterminate.     

A Test of Sex Estimation in Subadults Using the Elevation of the Auricular Surface from Four Samples of Known Age and Sex

Biological sex is foundational to the work of forensic anthropologists and bioarcheologists. The lack of reliable biological sex estimation methods for subadults has, thus, greatly limited forensic and bioarcheological analyses. Auricular surface elevation showed promise as a subadult sex estimation method in previous studies. This study examined two auricular surface elevation evaluation methods on four subadult samples of known age, sex, and ancestry. Samples were scored as “male,” “female,” or “indeterminate” and results were examined with chi‐square analysis. No consistent sex estimation pattern, accuracy, or predictive value was produced between samples. Only one test was significant using Fisher's exact test analysis (FET = 7.501, p < 0.022): the composite approach on the Hamann‐Todd sample. While age, sample size, or developmental factors may play a role in these results, clearly sample variation does as well. This study found auricular surface elevation was not a useful subadult sex estimation method.     

The Use of Femoral Neck Axis Length to Estimate Sex and Ancestry

Having multiple reliable methods of estimating sex and ancestry from various skeletal features increases the likelihood of identifying skeletal remains. Femoral neck axis length (FNAL), as measured in living individuals, has been shown to vary by sex and ancestry. FNAL has not, however, been previously measured directly from skeletonized remains and investigated for its potential use in forensic anthropological applications. This research proposes a method for measuring FNAL from skeletal remains, determines the reliability and repeatability of the measurement, and assesses the validity of FNAL in sex and ancestry estimation. Results showed low interobserver error in the measurement of FNAL (TEM = 0.33 mm, R = 0.99). Significant differences in FNAL were found between sexes as well as between American Black, American White, and Native American groups. FNAL can correctly classify sex in ~86% of all cases and is considered valuable to sex estimation. The value of FNAL to ancestry estimation, however, is considered limited.     

Sex estimation in a modern American osteological sample using a discriminant function analysis from the calcaneus

Reliable methods for sex estimation during the development of a biological profile are important to the forensic community in instances when the common skeletal elements used to assess sex are absent or damaged. Sex estimation from the calcaneus has potentially significant importance for the forensic community. Specifically, measurements of the calcaneus provide an additional reliable method for sex estimation via discriminant function analysis based on a North American forensic population. Research on a modern American sample was chosen in order to develop up-to-date population specific discriminant functions for sex estimation. The current study addresses this matter, building upon previous research and introduces a new measurement, posterior circumference that promises to advance the accuracy of use of this single, highly resistant bone in future instances of sex determination from partial skeletal remains. Data were collected from The William Bass Skeletal Collection, housed at The University of Tennessee. Sample size includes 320 adult individuals born between the years 1900 and 1985. The sample was comprised of 136 females and 184 males. Skeletons used for measurements were confined to those with fused diaphyses showing no signs of pathology or damage that may have altered measurements, and that also had accompanying records that included information on ancestry, age, and sex. Measurements collected and analyzed include maximum length, load-arm length, load-arm width, and posterior circumference. The sample was used to compute a discriminant function, based on all four variables, and was performed in SAS 9.1.3. The discriminant function obtained an overall cross-validated classification rate of 86.69%. Females were classified correctly in 88.64% of the cases and males were correctly classified in 84.75% of the cases. Due to the increasing heterogeneity of current populations further discussion on this topic will include the importance that the re-evaluation of past studies has on modern forensic populations. Due to secular and micro evolutionary changes among populations, the near future must include additional methods being updated, and new methods being examined, both which should cover a wide population spectrum.     

Root Morphology and Anatomical Patterns in Forensic Dental Identification: A Comparison of Computer‐Aided Identification with Traditional Forensic Dental Identification*

Abstract: An online forensic dental identification exercise was conducted involving 24 antemortem–postmortem (AM–PM) dental radiograph pairs from actual forensic identification cases. Images had been digitally cropped to remove coronal tooth structure and dental restorations. Volunteer forensic odontologists were passively recruited to compare the AM–PM dental radiographs online and conclude identification status using the guidelines for identification from the American Board of Forensic Odontology. The mean accuracy rate for identification was 86.0% (standard deviation 9.2%). The same radiograph pairs were compared using a digital imaging software algorithm, which generated a normalized coefficient of similarity for each pair. Twenty of the radiograph pairs generated a mean accuracy of 85.0%. Four of the pairs could not be used to generate a coefficient of similarity. Receiver operator curve and area under the curve statistical analysis confirmed good discrimination abilities of both methods (online exercise = 0.978; UT‐ID index = 0.923) and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient analysis (0.683) indicated good correlation between the results of both methods. Computer‐aided dental identification allows for an objective comparison of AM–PM radiographs and can be a useful tool to support a forensic dental identification conclusion.     

Survival of Atherosclerotic Calcifications in Skeletonized Material: Forensic and Pathological Implications

Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease creating calcifying plaques in the arterial walls. Because its paleopathological diagnosis remains little studied on skeletal remains, its impact on forensic and archeological data is completely underestimated. Here, 24 skeletal remains from the Milano Cemetery Skeletal Collection have been studied to evaluate the chance of atherosclerotic calcification survival, retrieval, and identification. Through direct comparison with a known autopsy collection and literature, the identification and categorization of several types of calcifications were performed. Clothing elements such as tights or socks played a definitive role in the preservation of the calcifications; hence they are more likely to be found in forensic cases than in archeological ones. Therefore, vascular calcifications are possible to collect and identify in skeletal remains if sufficient care is given to their recovery. Consequently and as markers of the disease, such identification can provide valuable pathological information for forensic and archeological cases.     

Reliability of the Walker Cranial Nonmetric Method and Implications for Sex Estimation

The cranial trait scoring method presented in Buikstra and Ubelaker (Standards for data collection from human skeletal remains. Fayetteville, AR: Arkansas Archeological Survey Research Series No. 44, 1994) and Walker (Am J Phys Anthropol, 136, 2008 and 39) is the most common nonmetric cranial sex estimation method utilized by physical and forensic anthropologists. As such, the reliability and accuracy of the method is vital to ensure its validity in forensic applications. In this study, inter‐ and intra‐observer error rates for the Walker scoring method were calculated using a sample of U.S. White and Black individuals (n = 135). Cohen's weighted kappas, intraclass correlation coefficients, and percentage agreements indicate good agreement between trials and observers for all traits except the mental eminence. Slight disagreement in scoring, however, was found to impact sex classifications, leading to lower accuracy rates than those published by Walker. Furthermore, experience does appear to impact trait scoring and sex classification. The use of revised population‐specific equations that avoid the mental eminence is highly recommended to minimize the potential for misclassifications.     

Sexual dimorphism of the scapula and the clavicle in a contemporary Greek population: applications in forensic identification

Sex estimation is the grounds for an accurate identification of unknown human skeletal elements. The need for reliable methods distinguishing males from females based upon various skeletal elements is evident in cases of commingled, eroded and/or missing remains. The aim of this work lays on establishing criteria for sex estimation from the scapula and the clavicle in modern Greeks. A total of 147 left scapulae and 147 clavicles (66 females and 81 males) were used in the study. Eight and six measurements were taken on the scapula and clavicle respectively and data were subjected to principal components analysis (PCA) and discriminant function analysis (DFA). Posterior probabilities for the classification of each individual are also calculated. Statistical analysis was carried out using the software PAST (Paleontological Statistics) and SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences) 18. The results supported the existence of pronounced sexual dimorphism, which was mainly attributed to size differences among the two groups. Univariate and multivariate methods of statistical classification showed high accuracy for all scapular and most clavicular measurements, verifying their value as sex indicators in the under study population. We recommend the use of this method for sex assessment from the scapula and the clavicle in cases exhibiting over 95% probability of correct classification. This is regardless of the overall high degree of accuracy reported here, as the method of choice in forensic contexts should always be case-driven.     

Improving Nonmetric Sex Classification for Hispanic Individuals

Current techniques used by forensic anthropologists for the identification of unknown human skeletal remains have largely been created using U.S. Black and White samples. When applied to Hispanics, these techniques perform poorly and can lead to misclassifications; consequently, there is an imperative need for population‐specific standards for Hispanics. This research examines the classification accuracies obtained by the original Walker (Am J Phys Anthropol, 136, 2008) and Klales et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol, 149, 2012) methods for nonmetric sex estimation and provides recalibrated regression equations specifically for Hispanics. Ordinal data were collected for five skull and three pelvic traits from a sample of 54 modern Hispanic individuals. Recalibration of the Klales et al. equation improved accuracy (90.3% vs. 94.1%), while recalibration of the Walker method equation decreased accuracy (81.5% vs. 74.1%), but greatly improved sex bias (22.2% vs. ?7.4%), thereby making the recalibrated equations more appropriate for use with Hispanics.     

Postcranial Sex Estimation Criteria for Mexican Hispanics

Population-specific reference data are necessary for sex estimation in forensic anthropological practice. Currently, there are no population-specific data for Hispanics equivalent to data available for American Blacks and Whites. Individuals of Mexican origin represent the largest group of Hispanics in the United States (Spradley and Jantz. 2011. J Forensic Sci;56:289). This paper presents new population-specific sex estimation criteria for postcranial measurements for Mexican Hispanics. Metric data come from positively identified border-crossing fatalities at the Pima County Office of the Medical Examiner and documented cemetery collections curated at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán. Stepwise variable selection procedures and discriminant function analyses were utilized to generate classification functions for postcrania. Sectioning points were also created for select measurements. Both the cross-validated classification rates and sectioning points achieved accuracy rates as high as 95% and 92%, respectively. These new criteria will improve sex estimation for US Mexico border crossers and Hispanics in the US.     

Discriminant function analysis for sex assessment in pelvic girdle bones: sample from the contemporary Mexican population

Sex assessment of skeletal remains plays an important role in forensic anthropology. The pelvic bones are the most studied part of the postcranial skeleton for the assessment of sex. It is evident that a population-specific approach improves rates of accuracy within the group. The present study proposes a discriminant function method for the sex assessment of skeletal remains from a contemporary Mexican population. A total of 146 adult human pelvic bones (61 females and 85 males) from the skeletal series pertaining to the National Autonomous University of Mexico were evaluated. Twenty-four direct metrical parameters of coxal and sacral bones were measured and subsequently, sides and sex differences were evaluated, applying a stepwise discriminant function analysis. Coxal and sacra functions achieved accuracies of 99% and 87%, respectively. These analyses follow a population-specific approach; nevertheless, we consider that our results are applicable to any other Hispanic samples for purposes of forensic human identification.     

Characteristics of Forensic Imaging Performance—An Analysis of Forensic Imaging Bottlenecks

Disk imaging involves copying all of the data from a source disk drive to a target. Typically, the target for the copy is another disk drive. Forensic processes developed years ago do not appear to be adequate for current storage technology. For example, with disk drive capacities now exceeding 1 Terabyte, a typical disk imaging can take over 8 hours at typical rates. With disk drive capacities increasing, forensic copying is expected to take even longer. Along with increase in disk capacity, the industry has also seen an increase in data transfer rates. In many cases, forensic imaging is taking longer than necessary. To identify the bottlenecks, an examination of different methods used to transfer data from a source disk was performed. Factors considered were differing disk access technologies. One finding is that the USB disk access technology (version 2.0 and earlier) is a significant bottleneck for data transfer rates, especially when the USB device is a write‐blocker. Other factors that contribute to the efficiency of a forensic copy are the file system used to write a forensic image and the data transfer size used when reading from a disk drive. Optimal parameters for performing a forensic acquisition from a disk drive are identified.     

Stature Estimation from Postmortem CT Femoral Maximum Length in Contemporary Danish Population

Stature estimation methods for Danish adult population have generally relied on Trotter and Gleser’s and Boldsen’s regression equations that are based on the skeletal remains of recent war dead American Whites, Terry Skeletal Collection, and Danish archaeological medieval skeletal materials, respectively. These equations are probably not suitable for stature estimation in contemporary Danish forensic cases. Furthermore, because postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) is now routinely performed at Danish forensic departments, equations based on PMCT, rather than measurements of defleshed bones, are needed. The aim of this study was to develop new equations for adult stature estimation based on PMCT femoral measurement. Maximum femoral length was measured on the PMCT images of 78 individuals (41 males and 37 females) aged 23–45 years. The measurement accuracy was tested on dry bones, and all the measurements were included in the inter- and intra-observer analyses. Both analyses results demonstrated the reliability of the method and data. Comparison between the living stature of the individuals and the estimates based on the equations by Trotter and Gleser and Boldsen demonstrated the unreliability of the previous equations to some extent. New regression equations were then developed and validated on a different sample of 18 Danish forensic cases. Comparisons of all the equations indicated that both the sets of previous equations underestimated the stature in the new validation dataset. The new equations developed in this study provide a reliable alternative for stature estimation in modern Danish forensic cases.     

Forensic Applicability of Femur Subtrochanteric Shape to Ancestry Assessment in Thai and White American Males

Ancestry assessment from the postcranial skeleton presents a significant challenge to forensic anthropologists. However, metric dimensions of the femur subtrochanteric region are believed to distinguish between individuals of Asian and non‐Asian descent. This study tests the discriminatory power of subtrochanteric shape using modern samples of 128 Thai and 77 White American males. Results indicate that the samples' platymeric index distributions are significantly different (p ≤ 0.001), with the Thai platymeric index range generally lower and the White American range generally higher. While the application of ancestry assessment methods developed from Native American subtrochanteric data results in low correct classification rates for the Thai sample (50.8–57.8%), adapting these methods to the current samples leads to better classification. The Thai data may be more useful in forensic analysis than previously published subtrochanteric data derived from Native American samples. Adapting methods to include appropriate geographic and contemporaneous populations increases the accuracy of femur subtrochanteric ancestry methods.     

Age estimation from the human os coxa: a test on a documented Italian collection*

Current standards for age at death estimation from the pelvis are based on Americans of European and African ancestry. Our limited understanding of population variability hampers our efforts to apply these techniques to the various skeletal populations around the world, especially in global forensic contexts. However, documented skeletal samples are rare, limiting our ability to test our techniques. This study tested the Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis aging method and the auricular surface method originally developed by Lovejoy et al. on a large sample (n = 404) of known sex and age from the Sassari Collection, housed at the Museum of Anthropology at the University of Bologna, Italy. The results indicate that for both methods, bias and inaccuracy increased with age and actual age tended to be underestimated over the age of 40. The auricular surface method performed slightly better, exhibiting slightly lower levels of bias and inaccuracy, especially for males.     

Estimating Biological Characteristics With Virtual Laser Data

Laser scanning technology is increasingly being used in forensic anthropological research to obtain virtual data for archival purposes and post hoc measurement collection. This research compared the measurement accuracy of two laser scanners—the FARO Focus^3D 330X and the FARO Freestyle^3D—against traditionally obtained (i.e., by hand) control data (N = 454). Skeletal data were collected to address a novel question: the ability of laser scanning technology to produce measurements useful for biological characteristic estimation, such as sex and stature. Results indicate that both devices produced measurements very similar to control (c. 3‐mm average absolute error), but also illuminate a tendency to under‐measure. Despite these findings, the virtual data produced sex and stature estimates that varied little from control‐produced estimates, signifying the usefulness of virtual data for preliminary biological identification when the skeletal elements are no longer available for physical analysis.     

Development and Assessment of Postcranial Sex Estimation Methods for a Guatemalan Population

This study tests whether postcranial sex estimation methods generated from Hispanic, and mainly Mexican samples, can be successfully applied to other increasingly common migrant populations from Central America. We use a sample of postcranial data from a modern (1980s) Guatemalan Maya sample (n = 219). Results indicate a decrease in classification accuracies for previously established univariate methods when applied to the Guatemalan study sample, specifically for males whose accuracies ranged from 30 to 84%. This bias toward inaccuracies for Guatemalan males is associated with the smaller skeletal sizes for the Guatemalan sample as compared to the samples used in the tested sex estimation methods. In contrast, the tested multivariate discriminant function classification yielded less sex bias and improved classification accuracies ranging from 82 to 89%. Our results highlight which of the tested univariate and multivariate methods reach acceptable levels for accuracy for sex estimation of cases where the region of origin may include Guatemala.