Nonmetric Cranial Trait Variation and Ancestry Estimation in Asian and Asian-Derived Groups

Traditionally, precontact Native Americans and Asian groups have been conflated for aspects of the biological profile due to their distantly shared genetic history, although this grouping remains largely unexplored. This study examines craniomorphic variability to ascertain whether Asian groups can be differentiated from each other and from Asian-derived groups using more fine-tuned models. Cranial and mandibular data for 35 nonmetric traits were recorded on precontact Native Americans (n = 150) and modern Japanese (n = 150) and Thai (n = 150) individuals. Chi-square analyses indicate that all groups exhibit statistically significant differences in most traits. Additionally, cross-validated binary logistic regression equations resulted in correct classification rates in the range of 65.0–93.3% and demonstrate that sex does not contribute to statistical models. Therefore, numerous traits provide discriminatory resolution that detects differences between the samples, thus highlighting the potential utility of nonmetric traits in identifying individuals beyond the traditional African, European, and Asian forensic ancestry groupings.     

Morphoscopic Trait Expression in “Hispanic” Populations

This study evaluates population variation of eight cranial morphoscopic traits using samples of known southwest Hispanics (n = 72), Guatemalans (n = 106), American Blacks (n = 146), and American Whites (n = 218). We applied the support vector machine (SVM) method to build a prediction model based on a subsample (20%) of the data; the remainder of the data was used as a test sample. The SVM approach effectively differentiated between the four groups with correct classification rates between 72% (Guatemalan group) and 94% (American Black group). However, when the Guatemalan and southwest Hispanic samples were pooled, the same model correctly classified all groups with a higher degree of accuracy (American Black = 96%; American White = 77%; and the pooled Hispanic sample = 91%). This study also identified significant differences between the two Hispanic groups in six of the eight traits using univariate statistical tests. These results speak to the unique population histories of these samples and the current use of the term “Hispanic” within forensic anthropology. Finally, we argue that the SVM can be used as a classification model for ancestry estimation in a forensic context and as a diagnostic tool may broaden the application of morphoscopic trait data for the assessment of ancestry.     

The Use of Femoral Neck Axis Length to Estimate Sex and Ancestry

Having multiple reliable methods of estimating sex and ancestry from various skeletal features increases the likelihood of identifying skeletal remains. Femoral neck axis length (FNAL), as measured in living individuals, has been shown to vary by sex and ancestry. FNAL has not, however, been previously measured directly from skeletonized remains and investigated for its potential use in forensic anthropological applications. This research proposes a method for measuring FNAL from skeletal remains, determines the reliability and repeatability of the measurement, and assesses the validity of FNAL in sex and ancestry estimation. Results showed low interobserver error in the measurement of FNAL (TEM = 0.33 mm, R = 0.99). Significant differences in FNAL were found between sexes as well as between American Black, American White, and Native American groups. FNAL can correctly classify sex in ~86% of all cases and is considered valuable to sex estimation. The value of FNAL to ancestry estimation, however, is considered limited.     

Ontogeny of femur subtrochanteric shape in Native Americans and American Blacks and Whites

Femur subtrochanteric size and shape can be used to differentiate between adult Native Americans and American Blacks and Whites, but little is known about when shape differences are established during growth and development. Ontological changes in subtrochanteric shape were examined using 74 Native American and 61 American Black/White subadult femora. At birth, the proximal femur diaphysis is relatively circular in both groups. Between birth and 5 years, the diaphysis becomes more mediolaterally broad, especially in Native Americans, due to differential growth between the mediolateral and anteroposterior planes. This change may be due to biomechanical stresses associated with developing a mature gait pattern. After the age of 5, growth occurs more equally in the two planes and shape does not change significantly. The adult shape of the proximal femur is established by c. 5 years of age and can be used to discriminate between Native American and American Black/White femora in older subadults.     

A Quantitative Assessment of Zygomatic Projection for Ancestry Estimation

Anterior zygomatic projection (ZP) is historically referenced as a useful trait in ancestry estimation, particularly when differentiating between Native Americans and U.S. Whites and Blacks. However, methods of assessing ZP vary, are susceptible to multiple interpretations, and have not been quantitatively validated. This study uses 228 3D surface scans of U.S. Whites, U.S. Blacks, and Native Americans to quantitatively test the ZP methods published by Rhine in 1990 (Skeletal attribution of race: methods for forensic anthropology, Albuquerque, NM, Maxwell Museum of Anthropology, 1990) and Bass in 1995 (Human osteology: a laboratory and field manual, Columbia, MO: Missouri Archaeological Society, 1995). Two ZP angles and two distances, representing method interpretations, were collected and analyzed via ANOVA and discriminant function analyses. Although significant ancestry differences were found across all variables, only the Bass inferior zygomatic distance successfully differentiated the pooled Native American group from pooled U.S. Whites/Blacks (73.7% correct). Arctic Native Americans, displaying the most projecting zygomas, are driving group differences. Significant overlap in measurement distributions were observed between groups in all variables, indicating limited forensic utility.     

Ancestry Assessment Using Random Forest Modeling, ,

A skeletal assessment of ancestry relies on morphoscopic traits and skeletal measurements. Using a sample of American Black (n = 38), American White (n = 39), and Southwest Hispanics (n = 72), the present study investigates whether these data provide similar biological information and combines both data types into a single classification using a random forest model (RFM). Our results indicate that both data types provide similar information concerning the relationships among population groups. Also, by combining both in an RFM, the correct allocation of ancestry for an unknown cranium increases. The distribution of cross‐validated grouped cases correctly classified using discriminant analyses and RFMs ranges between 75.4% (discriminant function analysis, morphoscopic data only) and 89.6% (RFM). Unlike the traditional, experience‐based approach using morphoscopic traits, the inclusion of both data types in a single analysis is a quantifiable approach accounting for more variation within and between groups, reducing misclassification rates, and capturing aspects of cranial shape, size, and morphology.     

Evaluation of the (hu)MANid program for sex and ancestry estimation in a diverse,contemporary CT scan-based sample

Human remains from forensic and bioarcheological contexts are often fragmentary, requiring methods for estimating a forensic profile that are based upon limited skeletal features. In 2017, Berg and Keryhercz created an online application, (hu)MANid, that provides sex and ancestry estimation from mandibular morphoscopic traits and linear measurements. In this study, we examine the utility of the (hu)MANid application in a diverse, urban US adult sample (aged 20–45; n = 143) derived from computed tomography (CT) scans. We secondarily conduct a preliminary analysis of the program's utility in a sample of adolescents (aged 15–17; n = 40). Six morphoscopic, and eleven morphometric traits were recorded as directed by the literature associated with the (hu)MANid program. Percent correct classification and posterior predictive values were calculated for the sex and ancestry estimations output by the program; chi-squared tests were employed to compare self-reported and predicted ancestry. In the adult sample, sex was accurately predicted for 75.52% of the sample. Ancestry prediction, however, was less favorable ranging from 19.3% to 50% correct. For the adolescent sample, correct sex estimation (45%) did not surpass what could occur by chance alone, though ancestry prediction fared better than in the larger adult sample (percent correct prediction overall average: 47.5%, range 35.71%–71.43%). The (hu)MANid application shows utility for use with CT scan-derived adult samples for sex estimation, but caution is warranted for ancestry estimation and use with samples that may not have reached full adult maturity.     

Misclassifications of Hispanics Using Fordisc 3.1: Comparing Cranial Morphology in Asian and Hispanic Populations

It has been brought to the attention of the authors of Fordisc 3.1 that Hispanic samples will often misclassify as Japanese when Asian population samples are included. This study examined this problem in an effort to better document the occurrence and deduce possible causes via comparative analyses. Asian and Hispanic samples were first compared utilizing the existing samples from the University of Tennessee's Forensic Data Bank. Additional modern Japanese, Thai, and Korean samples collected by the first author that have previously not been utilized in analyses were subsequently included. Results of this study confirm frequent rates of misclassification among Hispanic and Japanese groups. Furthermore, a close morphological relationship is identified through further group comparisons and the addition of data used in conjunction with Fordisc samples. Similarities identified among Hispanic and Japanese crania may stem from similar population histories reflected in ancestral Native American and East Asian populations.     

Morphological Assessment of Ancestry using Cranial Macromorphoscopics,

Ancestry estimation is essential for biological profile estimation in forensic anthropology. Hefner (2009) and Osteoware (Smithsonian Institution, 2011) presented 16 macromorphoscopic traits that can be scored for standardized data collection and can also be used within a statistical framework to estimate ancestry. The primary purpose of this research was to examine the utility of these traits for assessing ancestry. Tests of observer agreement and the range of variation in trait expression were evaluated. A sample of 208 American whites and blacks from the Hamann–Todd Collection were scored, and several classification methods were utilized in accordance with Hefner (2009). Correct classifications for the pooled sex analyses ranged from 73.3% to 86.6% and from 46.7% to 64.3% when the sexes were analyzed independently. Interobserver agreement was variable and was found to be lower than that presented in Hefner (2009). Trait expression was variable in both groups and was generally consistent with Hefner's findings.     

Ancestry Estimation in Forensic Anthropology: Geometric Morphometric versus Standard and Nonstandard Interlandmark Distances

Standard cranial measurements are commonly used for ancestry estimation; however, 3D digitizers have made cranial landmark data collection and geometric morphometric (GM) analyses more popular within forensic anthropology. Yet there has been little focus on which data type works best. The goal of the present research is to test the discrimination ability of standard and nonstandard craniometric measurements and data derived from GM analysis. A total of 31 cranial landmarks were used to generate 465 interlandmark distances, including a subset of 20 commonly used measurements, and to generate principal component scores from procrustes coordinates. All were subjected to discriminant function analysis to ascertain which type of data performed best for ancestry estimation of American Black and White and Hispanic males and females. The nonstandard interlandmark distances generated the highest classification rates for females (90.5%) and males (88.2%). Using nonstandard interlandmark distances over more commonly used measurements leads to better ancestry estimates for our current population structure.     

Application of the Optimized Summed Scored Attributes Method to Sex Estimation in Asian Crania

The optimized summed scored attributes (OSSA) method was recently introduced and validated for nonmetric ancestry estimation between American Black and White individuals. The method proceeds by scoring, dichotomizing, and subsequently summing ordinal morphoscopic trait scores to maximize between‐group differences. This study tests the applicability of the OSSA method for sex estimation using five cranial traits given the methodological similarities between classifying sex and ancestry. A large sample of documented crania from Japan and Thailand (n = 744 males, 320 females) are used to develop a heuristically selected OSSA sectioning point of ≤1 separating males and females. This sectioning point is validated using a holdout sample of Japanese, Thai, and Filipino (n = 178 males, 82 females) individuals. The results indicate a general correct classification rate of 82% using all five traits, and 81% when excluding the mental eminence. Designating an OSSA score of 2 as indeterminate is recommended.     

The Optimized Summed Scored Attributes Method for the Classification of U.S. Blacks and Whites: A Validation Study

Recently, Hefner and Ousley (2014) introduced the optimized summed scored attributes (OSSA) method that maximizes between‐group differences in U.S. black and white populations by dichotomizing six cranial morphoscopic trait scores. This study tests OSSA using an independent skeletal sample (Hamann‐Todd, n = 208) and positively identified forensic cases (Mercyhurst University, n = 28, and New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner, n = 38). An evaluation of trait frequencies suggests shifting the heuristically selected sectioning point separating U.S. black and white populations from ≤ 3 to ≤ 4. We found a total correct classification of 73.0% (B = 50.9%, W = 89.2%) using the originally suggested sectioning point of ≤3, while the total correct classification increases to 79.2% (B = 80.2%, W = 78.5%) with a modified sectioning point of ≤4. With the increased total correct classification and reduced classification bias between ancestry groups, we suggest the modified sectioning point of ≤4 be used when assessing ancestry in forensic unknowns.     

Population variation in femur subtrochanteric shape

Use of proximal femur shape to determine ancestry has appeal, but its validity is problematic because of unaddressed issues associated with skeletal plasticity, within- and between-population variation, sample selection, and interobserver error. In this paper, I inspect within- and between-group variation in proximal femur shape using five groups (American Blacks, American Whites, Hispanics, Native Americans, and Polynesians), and examine the affect of three environmental variables (subsistence strategy, physical terrain, and geographical region). Finally. I consider the validity of using the proximal femur to assess ancestry. The results show that there is significant within-group variation in proximal femur shape. Among Native Americans, both geographical location and subsistence strategy have a significant affect on proximal femur shape. Nevertheless, this study generally verifies the assertion that the proximal femur can be used reliably to distinguish Native Americans from American Blacks and Whites, but its precision may be reduced in some geographical regions.     

Ancestry Estimation Using Cranial and Postcranial Macromorphoscopic Traits

Ancestry estimation methods using macromorphoscopic (MMS) traits commonly focus exclusively on cranial morphology. The objective of this study was to demonstrate the value of postcranial MMS traits, highlighting a combined cranial/postcranial trait approach to ancestry estimation using quadratic discriminant function and a variety of machine learning classification models including artificial neural networks (aNN), random forest models, and support vector machine. Eight cranial and eleven postcranial MMS traits were collected from the Terry and Bass Skeletal Collections (American Black = 81; American White = 173). Our classification models using cranial and postcranial traits correctly classified 88–92% of the sample, improving classification accuracies by nearly fifteen percent over models relying exclusively on cranial data. These same results demonstrate the importance of a multivariate statistical framework incorporating cranial and postcranial data and the nearly unlimited potential of machine learning models to improve the accuracy of ancestry estimates over traditional methods of analysis. To facilitate implementation in casework, one of the more robust models (aNN) is incorporated into a web-based application, ComboMaMD Analytical, to facilitate cranial and postcranial MMS traits analysis for ancestry estimation.     

Demographic change and forensic identification: problems in metric identification of Hispanic skeletons

The United States (U.S.) population structure is currently in a state of flux with one of the most profound changes being the increasing number of people referred to as Hispanic. In the U.S., much of the identification criteria for a biological profile are based on American Black and White individuals from anatomical collections. Using metric data from the Forensic Anthropology Data Bank (FDB), this paper will attempt to explore several issues that forensic anthropologists face when confronted with Hispanic remains. These will involve estimation of sex, height, and ancestry, the initial components of a biological profile. Discriminant function analyses indicate that American White criteria provide poor estimations of sex when applied to Hispanics and that ancestry estimation of Hispanic crania is difficult. Additionally, a new linear regression equation is presented that estimates stature for Hispanic individuals, although population specific criteria are still needed for Hispanic individuals from diverse geographical origins.     

Ancestral Variation in Orbital Rim Shape: A Three‐Dimensional Pilot Study

Traditional nonmetric methods of ancestry assessment posit orbital rim shape varies among ancestral groups. This pilot study uses morphometric analysis of 3D orbital variation to test discrimination among individuals of primarily European, African, and Asian ancestry. Although the size and nature of the sample analyzed limit inferences for other samples, principal components analysis suggests ancestry has a significant effect on rim shape (p = 2.93e‐04). European orbits display more marked folding of the orbit in the sagittal plane than either African or Asian orbits, while the lateral margin of African orbits lies further posterior relative to the medial margin when compared to Asian orbits. The findings suggest curviplanar relationships are the most ancestrally informative aspect of orbital rim shape; these relationships may be distorted by perspective based on orientation of the skull relative to the viewer in traditional nonmetric analyses. Additional studies on geometric morphometric approaches to ancestry assessment are therefore warranted.     

Quantification of Maxillary Dental Arcade Curvature and the Estimation of Biological Ancestry in Forensic Anthropology

Previous studies suggest that palate shape is a useful indicator of biological ancestry in human remains. This study evaluates interobserver error in ancestry estimation using palate shape and explores palate shape variation in Gullah (descendants of West Africans) and Seminole (Indigenous American) population samples using geometric morphometric analysis. Ten participants were asked to ascribe biological ancestry and shape to 28 dental casts based on a classification scheme employed in previous studies. The mean correct classification was 42.0%, indicating that the likelihood of assigning the correct ancestry is very poor and not significantly different from random assignment (p = 0.12). The accuracy analysis based on categorical classification of the casts was complemented by geometric morphometric analysis of nine 3D landmarks reflecting palate shape of 158 casts. Principal component analysis results show no difference between populations regarding palate shape, and cross‐validated discriminant function analysis correctly classified only 62.0% of the specimens. Combined, these results show that previous methods to estimate ancestry are inaccurate and that this inaccuracy is probably due to a lack of palate shape differences between groups, rather than limitation of the analytical method per se. Therefore, we recommend caution should be used when choosing to apply the analysis of palate shape in forensically relevant contexts.     

A Test of Sex Estimation in Subadults Using the Elevation of the Auricular Surface from Four Samples of Known Age and Sex

Biological sex is foundational to the work of forensic anthropologists and bioarcheologists. The lack of reliable biological sex estimation methods for subadults has, thus, greatly limited forensic and bioarcheological analyses. Auricular surface elevation showed promise as a subadult sex estimation method in previous studies. This study examined two auricular surface elevation evaluation methods on four subadult samples of known age, sex, and ancestry. Samples were scored as “male,” “female,” or “indeterminate” and results were examined with chi‐square analysis. No consistent sex estimation pattern, accuracy, or predictive value was produced between samples. Only one test was significant using Fisher's exact test analysis (FET = 7.501, p < 0.022): the composite approach on the Hamann‐Todd sample. While age, sample size, or developmental factors may play a role in these results, clearly sample variation does as well. This study found auricular surface elevation was not a useful subadult sex estimation method.