美国与东亚之间的经济失衡及其成因探析

美国与东亚之间的经济失衡及摩擦由来已久,经历了20 世纪60 年代至70 年代美国 与日本经济失衡及摩擦为主的阶段、80 年代至90 年代中期亚洲“四小龙”和日本与美国经济失衡 及摩擦为主的阶段,以及其后中国与美国经济失衡及摩擦为主的阶段。美国与东亚经济失衡是世 界经济发展不平衡规律起作用的结果,主要表现在二战后东亚经济的迅速崛起以及美国经济的相 对衰落。战后加速和维持东亚与美国发展不平衡的具体原因是：东亚与美国经济发展模式的差异、 东亚与美国储蓄和投资率差异、国际产业转移与国际分工的变化以及美元全球霸权体系的确立。 我们认为这种失衡局面是难以长期维持的     

70年代以来的美欧日经济关系

战后,美欧日经济关系经历了两个不同的发展阶段。40年代后期到50年代末为第一阶段。当时美国在资本主义世界经济中占据绝对的优势。50年代末,特别是60年代开始,美欧日经济关系逐步进入一个新的发展阶段。美国相对衰落,渐渐地失去了它在资本主义世界经济中占据的绝对优势地位。美欧日之间的矛盾和斗争愈益发展。进入70年代后,这种趋势进一步加强了,它使美欧日经济关系具有一系列新的特点。     

古巴革命以来的对外政策研究

古巴革命胜利后至今,其外交政策可分为两个主要阶段.第一阶段从1959年革命胜利到20世纪80年代末90年代初东欧剧变、苏联解体.在这一时期古巴奉行"无产阶级国际主义",加强与"苏联和其他社会主义国家兄弟般的友谊、帮助与合作,以及拉丁美洲和全世界工人和人民的团结".第二阶段从20世纪80年代末90年代初至今.在这一时期,古巴努力贯彻全方位多边外交政策,力求打破美国封锁和孤立政策,扩大生存空间,改善国际环境.拓展经贸合作.古巴十分重视同中国、越南等社会主义国家的友好关系,积极发展同亚洲和非洲发展中国家之间的关系.在不结盟运动、伊比利亚美洲首脑会议、联合国等国际组织中积极开展多边合作.     

美国对以色列援助初探

美国每年向以色列提供各类援助,这是美以特殊关系的重要组成部分和主要标志。美国对以色列的援助分为从以色列建国——“六五”战争——20世纪90年代中期以来3个阶段,各个阶段有其不同的历史背景。美国对以色列的援助具有数额巨大、机制化、条件最优惠和以军事援助为主要特点。美国对中东的战略考虑、美以特殊关系、以色列的战略价值、美国犹太人的巨大影响力和国际局势等是促进美国援助以色列的主要因素。美国援助以色列,对美以两国产生的影响是利弊并存。     

美国学术界对中央情报局与危地马拉政变研究综述

1954年危地马拉政变是美国利用中央情报局的秘密行动对拉美国家内部事务进行干涉的一个开端。由于这一事件所涉及档案文件的解密经历了一个较长的过程,所以对它的研究也是逐渐从原地踏步的初始阶段到六七十年代修正主义的起步阶段再到80年代以伊默曼的力作《中央情报局在危地马拉》为代表的实质性发展阶段,最后过渡到90年代至今大部分原始文件已经解密的深入研究时期,当今时代急切呼唤“解构”这段历史的大作问世。     

布里亚特语的形成、使用和发展问题

布里亚特语本是蒙古语的一个方言分支。在苏维埃时期它形成了自己的标准语、其发展史可分为三个阶段,即开始阶段(20年代),向独立的方言文字发展的阶段(30—40年代)和标准语的形成阶段(50—80年代)。苏联解体后布里亚特语与俄语一起成为布里亚特共和国的国语。     

从一份获奖书单看70年代初美国少年文学的几个特点

１９７４年的一份获奖书单向人们展示了７０年代初美国少年文学的某些特点：少数民族题材作品增多；幽默作品继续走红；惊险小说经久不衰；“老警”故事成为创作热点之一；少年成长经历作品受到关注     

美国新保守派势力简介

新保守派是美国国内一支重要的政治力量,它兴起于20世纪70年代,成熟于80年代,其思想被称为新保守主义。由于其独特的政治理念和有效的组织运作,新保守派得以长期影响美国政坛,对美国的内外政策有着很大的影响力。一、产生和发展新保守主义是相对于美国自由主义和传统保守主义而言的。它不是一个有纲领、有体系的政治或     

经济单边主义的“复活”及应对——从拉美国家与美国贸易关系演进的视角分析

自20世纪80年代以来,拉美国家与美国贸易关系发展过程中,先后遭遇美方两波经济单边主义的威胁。其一,随着《1962年贸易扩展法》和《1974年贸易法》的相继出台,20世纪70年代后,尤其是80年代,美国贸易保护主义的方式和手段发生了转变,贸易保护主义的主观色彩凸显。进入90年代,尤其在推动WTO成立前后,美国开始更多地倚重多边贸易体制,并对拉美的贸易政策做出调整,拉美国家发展模式普遍由"进口替代"转型为"出口导向",美拉双边贸易关系进入新的发展阶段。但期间,美国仍采取多边和单边主义并用手法。其二,2017年以来,美国新政府的经济单边主义"复燃"。包括拉美部分国家在内的全球多个国家未能幸免,拉美地区再次成为贸易保护主义、经济制裁、极限施压的"重灾区"。尤其需要指出的是,美国对古巴的经济制裁由20世纪60年代延续至今且力度不断升级。经历美国两次经济单边主义的威胁,拉美国家分别采取了相应的应对措施:力主基于规则的多边和双边贸易体制;通过"阻断性"立法应对域外经济制裁;坚持开放的地区主义,并从深度和广度上挖掘和拓展地区内外的经济一体化,从而减少对美国经济尤其是对其贸易的依赖。尽管美拉经济实力严重不对称,拉美国家应对经济单边主义威胁的手段受限,但其中仍不乏有益启示和借鉴意义。     

新移民与美国华文教育

1980年代,受中国改革开放和中美正式建交等因素的影响,由中国大陆前往美国的移民潮也在20世纪80年代中期左右形成,从而将美国华文教育推向新的发展阶段。本文中的新移民指中国改革开放后,由中国大陆移向国外的人员。而所谓的美国华文教育中兴,专指1980年代中后期以来,由中国大陆移民潮所推动的美国华文教育的发展。中国大陆留学生与全美中文学校协会的创立1978年6月,邓小平提出“增大向外派遣留学人员数量”的重大决策,留学生的数量因此有了较大幅度的增长。据统计,从1978年到1996年末,中国大陆赴美国的留学人员为13万到15万人之间①。截止2…     

Confining conditions and breaking with the past: Historical legacies and political learning in transitions to democracy

Historical factors have more often been assumed than explored in democratization studies. Their importance has been acknowledged broadly in reference to matters of change and continuity, including the effects of predecessor dictatorships on transition trajectories. But historical factors can have varied and sometimes persistent influences on the democratization process as a whole. These influences therefore need examining in a systematic way that considers also their implications for democratic consolidation. Developing from Kirchheimer's thesis of ‘confining conditions and revolutionary breakthroughs’, the discussion turns to forms of interaction and the changing balance between past impacts and the dynamics and changing agenda of regime change. A three‐part approach is presented and applied: historical patterns and historical memory; historical legacies and ‘overcoming the past'; and, then, political ‘learning’ and its ability to look to the future. It is generally argued that focusing on ‘history’ opens up new avenues in the study of regime change.     

Statecraft and Migration: A Research Note on American Strategies to Use Immigration in Foreign Policy from the Founding Era through the Early Twenty-First Century

How has the United States used migration as part of its statecraft and foreign policy? This question is significant because migration is an important contemporary transnational policy area for the United States; and because a state’s foreign-immigration policy nexus remains an under-explored vantage point for examining diplomatic and international history. This review article answers the question and lays conceptual and empirical ground in the area by examining the historical record and extant research to show that American leaders from the country’s founding through the early twenty-first century have used migration as an instrument of statecraft by primarily attempting to reach three foreign policy objectives: pleasing, harming, and bargaining with states. For each of these categories, the analysis explicates relationships between statecraft and migration for the United States, identifies policy instruments used by American leaders to influence migration for diplomatic and foreign policy objectives, and presents historical cases of American migration policies designed for foreign policy goals. The conclusion provides the research and policy implications of its findings.     

Some Men Named William Hunter

The Hunter family of Rhode Island produced two important American diplomatists of the nineteenth century. The elder William Hunter served for nine years as the American envoy to Brazil, where he exerted positive influence over the young emperor, Dom Pedro II. The younger William Hunter entered the Department of State in 1829 and spent fifty-seven years there under twenty-one Secretaries of State. For decades the department’s third-ranking officer, he became its “mentor and authority.” The overlapping careers of Hunter and his two successors helped guide American diplomacy until 1937.     

日本古代小说的佛学烙印与文化成因

日本古代小说大都具有浓郁的佛学色彩,净土、无常、果报是最典型的三个侧面。净土思想是日本佛教的主流且具有明显的现世特征:平安物语的净土信仰成为救赎宫廷贵族脱离苦难的精神支柱;中世战记物语的净土信仰多与死亡紧密相连,成为对战乱中人们渴求来世幸福的终极关怀。无常是日本小说尤其是中世物语中最浓墨重彩的一笔,无常既是对人间永无常住的感性叹息,也是对盛者必衰社会法则的理论解释,更成为武家社会切身感受的"生死观"。因果报应思想贯穿日本小说史的始终,它与宿世、轮回、转生等观念互为表里,成为孕育日本怪异小说流行的土壤之一,并表现出与儒家劝惩观念相结合的世俗化趋势。     

The Calculus of Nation in the Cuban Revolution

The history of Cuba was imbued with a sense of purpose at its inception. To have discerned the need at all for a history of Cuba in the nineteenth century was itself product and portent of a momentous shift in consciousness, an occasion when narratives of the past revealed themselves as a potential source of national community. The history of Cuba began at the moment that the past became relevant to the future. Historical narrative developed as a matter of necessity, a product of a time and place, a means by which Cubans addressed the needs of their times. Purpose and point of view were inscribed into the very premise of the historical narrative, and indeed fixed the narrative genre around which the history of Cuba was structured. The historical narrative in this instance contained a premonition of nation which shared something with the new collective consciousness to which it contributed. Historical consciousness was itself a product of national formation, to which it responded and for which it was summoned: the proposition of a shared awareness of a common past with which to bring a people together and justify a nation apart.     

俄罗斯对美国战略认知的演变及其政策效应

俄罗斯对美国战略认知的演变过程分为友好合作、竞争凸显和激烈对抗三个阶段。俄罗斯的强势外交和安全政策,表现为俄罗斯对美国和北约的强硬战略姿态以及追求超出自身相对实力的外交和安全目标。俄罗斯战略认知的演变与俄美两国的利益冲突之间有着相互塑造的关系,但是俄罗斯战略认知的变化并不仅仅取决于利益考量。俄罗斯之所以把北约东扩、乌克兰走向、叙利亚局势等看得如此重要,不惜投入大量资源,这是与塑造俄罗斯战略认知的历史和心理因素是分不开的。美国采取的许多对俄政策和行为,正是因为忽略了这些因素,才被俄罗斯看作是“侮辱性”和“威胁性”的,从而导致了双方敌意的螺旋式上升。由于俄罗斯独特的历史记忆和大国情结,俄罗斯对俄美两国的利益冲突作出了激烈的回应,这些回应虽然不利于俄罗斯的国家实力和整体利益,但却是可以理解的。随着俄罗斯对美战略认知的逐步定型,俄美关系在短期内很难实现所谓的“重启”。从俄罗斯对美战略认知的案例分析可以看出,战略认知自身有其相对的独立性,在受到利益冲突影响的同时,也受到社会文化因素的深刻影响,从而使得国家的外交与安全政策未必完全遵循理性主义的路径。     

Democratic theorizing in Taiwan: A reconstruction

This study reconstructs Taiwan people's existing discursive structures on democracy by replicating Dryzek and Berejikian's Q methodological study of American democratic discourses. It finds that under the existing specific historical circumstances, Taiwan people's democratic attitudes manifest a complex, pluralistic and interrelated discursivity, in which at least five democratic discourses can be identified, namely democratic pragmatism, democratic communitarianism, democratic liberalism, democratic elitism and democratic populism. Yet, among these five discourses, there are a number of commonly held views. In particular, they all accept democratic pluralism, reject communism and violence, believe in the fallibility of state leaders and the necessity to limit government power, and are optimistic about the future democratic development in Taiwan. This broad consensus reflects the specific historical experience of Taiwan people's democratic pursuit on the one hand and provides a broad common ground for dialogue and interaction among the five discourses on the other. These findings should significantly enrich our understanding of the democratic theorizing in Taiwan and serve as a basis for future comparison with the American as well as other countries’ experiences.     

The discourse and study of terrorism in decolonised states: the case of Pakistan

The existing literature in the terrorism field does not address the absence of terrorism scholarship in developing countries. This article focuses on this intellectual gap using the case of Pakistan. It argues that most decolonised states, including Pakistan, are yet to grasp the complexities of traditional approaches to the study of terrorism, let alone its critical dimensions. The article explores some of the prevailing conditions in developing countries, specifically decolonised states such as Pakistan, which prevent the development of a robust academic discourse on terrorism and the development of a strong field of study. It suggests that the main barriers that account for this shortfall include the state’s legitimacy deficit, a flawed education system that nurtures fictions as truth and inhibits knowledge production, the institutionalised role of conspiracy theories in national politics and the multiplicity of terrorism discourses among government and sociopolitical entities. The conclusion highlights a number of reasons that might help to explain this persistent condition and offers a few policy recommendations.     

Confessions of a South African ambassador

Prepared originally for presentation at a biennial conference of the Australian Historical Association, this article is a retrospective on the author's term (1988–92) as South African Ambassador to Australia in the twilight of white rule. Apartheid South Africa was firmly fixed in Australian public demonology. The author conceived of it as his role to use the media to project a more realistic image of his country than the demonic stereotype then prevailing. While achieving some success, he found himself the target of ambitious colleagues at home. Thus, besides examining what an individual diplomat did in given historical circumstances, the article touches on the nature of the former South African Department of Foreign Affairs.     

美国外交关系委员会对美国外交的影响

美国外交关系委员会作为美国历史最悠久、最重要的外交思想库,其政策设想一贯秉持服务于美国政府、美国国家利益的目的,并与政府建立了长期合作关系。本文拟简要梳理美国外交关系委员会的历史流变,考察外交关系委员会影响美国外交的方式,探讨外交关系委员会对美国外交的影响。