缅甸大变革及其对中缅关系的影响

自2011年3月吴登盛领导的新政府执政以来,着力调整内外政策,迅速开启了“变革”之门。对内,统治缅甸40多年的军政府逐步向文官政府交权,工作重心开始转向经济改革。对外,积极融入东盟,同西方国家关系出现重大“突破”。对华,坚持睦邻友好,两国关系稳定发展。但缅甸的民主改革不会一蹴而就,还有不少问题有待解决,任何操之过急的期待或行为,恐将适得其反。     

The International Security Involvement of Federated States: Comparing Massachusetts,Illinois and Flanders

Application of the federal principle of shared sovereignty to external security policies directed against foreign states can easily give rise to a situation in which the federation ceases to be an indivisible subject in an international setting. This can in turn lead to conflicts between the two levels. A comparison of three instances of sanctions adopted by federated states–the sanction policies of Massachusetts in support of the democratisation of Myanmar/Burma (1996–2000), the divestment policies of Illinois in opposition to the governmental policies of Sudan (2006-), and the participation by Flanders in Belgian and European sanctions in protest against the Freedom Party's participation in the Austrian government (2000)–confirms this thesis.     

Explaining Myanmar's regime transition: the periphery is central

In 2010, Myanmar (Burma) held its first elections after 22?years of direct military rule. Few compelling explanations for this regime transition have emerged. This article critiques popular accounts and potential explanations generated by theories of authoritarian “regime breakdown” and “regime maintenance”. It returns instead to the classical literature on military intervention and withdrawal. Military regimes, when not terminated by internal factionalism or external unrest, typically liberalize once they feel they have sufficiently addressed the crises that prompted their seizure of power. This was the case in Myanmar. The military intervened for fear that political unrest and ethnic-minority separatist insurgencies would destroy Myanmar's always-fragile territorial integrity and sovereignty. Far from suddenly liberalizing in 2010, the regime sought to create a “disciplined democracy” to safeguard its preferred social and political order twice before, but was thwarted by societal opposition. Its success in 2010 stemmed from a strategy of coercive state-building and economic incorporation via “ceasefire capitalism”, which weakened and co-opted much of the opposition. Having altered the balance of forces in its favour, the regime felt sufficiently confident to impose its preferred settlement. However, the transition neither reflected total “victory” for the military nor secured a genuine or lasting peace.     

试论《琉璃宫史》中对中国形象的认知

《琉璃宫史》是缅甸宫廷编写的一部史籍，在东南亚历史中占据十分重要的地位。笔者通过从5个方面分析文本中有关中国的描述：中国人物的描述、有关中国物品的描述、有关“整体”中国（妙香国）的描述、有关中国与缅甸战争（战斗）的描述、有关中国与缅甸和平交往的描述，认为《琉璃宫史》中有关中国的描述反映出缅甸古代王朝对中国形象“真实”和“虚幻”的认知：中国是一个强大、富有和人口众多的国家，中国与缅甸一样伟大，缅甸并不惧怕中国。     

蒙巴顿对战后初期缅甸政局的影响

二战末期,盟军东南亚战区总司令蒙巴顿在负责缅甸军管时期力排众议,坚决与缅甸民族主义力量实施合作,并吸纳缅甸本土武装加入正规军。缅甸文官政府回归后,蒙巴顿继续关注缅甸事务,举荐新任缅甸总督,并积极推动英国工党政府调整对缅政策。蒙巴顿的主张,顺应了民族自决和非殖民化的国际趋势,对战后初期的缅甸政局、英缅关系和缅甸独立进程产生了深远影响。     

The Paung Ku model: encouraging change through learning

It is well known within international development practice that the terms “capacity building” or “capacity development” are often used but infrequently (and inconsistently) defined; whether in funding applications, program strategies, staff training programmes, or field work. This article outlines the way in which one development organisation working in Burma/Myanmar wrestled with the issue of meaning, and practice, in relation to capacity development; it also reports on the resulting “Paung Ku model: encouraging change through learning.”     

太平洋战争期间英国对缅甸政策出台始末

战前 ,缅甸的民族独立运动已使英殖民当局难以招架 ,英国政府不得不向民族主义者许诺 ,在条件成熟时 ,英国将给缅甸自治 ,但这个许诺不过是一个遥遥无期的长把伞。欧战爆发 ,使英国政府无力顾及它在远东的殖民地 ,缅甸民族主义者再次看到独立的希望 ,但是 ,英国政府逆历史潮流而行 ,仍然采用欧战爆发前的殖民政策来对付缅甸的民族主义 ,特别是在太平洋战争爆发后 ,缅甸民族主义提出联英抗日 ,促进缅甸独立的政治主张遭到英殖民当局的拒绝 ,英国不顾已经变化了的国际形势 ,采取高压政策 ,大肆逮捕民族主义领袖 ,使缅甸民族主义者转向日本 ,以…     

The Agenda-Setting Impact of Major Presidential TV Addresses

New media dramatically increase citizens' access to information and decrease governments' ability to control the flow of communication. Although human rights nongovernmental organizations have advocated that access to independent news media will improve government respect for human rights, recent empirical studies have shown this is not always the case. We posit that media independence and the presence or absence of democratic characteristics, in particular political competition, have substantial effects on government repression because these factors determine the degree to which the government is vulnerable to public pressures. The model developed here includes three equations that encompass the impact of interaction between and among the news media, citizens, and government. The first equation specifies the influences on the news media's decision whether or not to perform a “watchdog” role regarding government repression. The second equation represents public reaction to the news media's coverage of government repression (i.e., protest). Here access to news media via traditional and new media is an important factor. The third equation represents government repression. Solutions to the system of equations are derived for four scenarios (a) Democracy and media independence are both present, (b) democracy is present but media independence is absent, (c) democracy is absent (autocracy) and media independence is present, and (d) democracy is absent (autocracy) and media independence is absent. We then consider interesting properties of the anticipated behavior from the government, media, and general public through case illustrations for the Netherlands and Myanmar/Burma.

[Supplementary material is available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Political Communication for the following free supplemental resource: two additional case illustrations (Tanzania and Brazil).]     

冷战后美国对缅甸政策及近期变化

自1988年缅甸发生政变、军人政权上台执政之后,美国就以“民主”、“人权”为由,对缅甸政府进行孤立、制裁,同时支持缅甸国内民主势力发展,企图以压促变,使缅甸政权更迭,进而建立一个符合美国利益的西方民主式国家。然而,20多年的制裁并未取得美国期望中的结果,中国以及中缅关系的快速发展却使美国感到巨大压力,因此美国调整对缅政策,接触与制裁并举,企图以此促成缅甸的变革,同时离间中缅关系。     

从东南亚国家政府换届看其政治社会新发展

自2010年底以来,缅甸、越南、新加坡和泰国相继举行大选。大选过程及其结果透露了非常丰富和重要的政治信息,缅甸的军人政权向民主政府转型;新加坡执政党依然一党独大,但反对党实力有突破性增长;越南继续进行政治制度改革的探索;泰国迎来了社会和解的契机。     

缅甸新政府面临的挑战与机遇

随着缅甸大选平静而顺利地完成,新政府也宣告成立。从缅甸新政府的组成和目前的国际国内形势看,缅甸新政府将面临难得的新机遇,主要表现为：民族和解使新政府的合法性得到承认;西方国家的外交压力减轻有利于新政府拓展外交空间;缅甸与周边国家关系的改善有利于新政府集中精力发展缅甸经济,改善民生;缅甸的地缘优势、资源优势使新政府在其参与的各种多边合作中有更多的发挥空间。     

缅甸：2009年回顾与2010年展望

2009年缅甸政局基本稳定,虽然爆发了世人瞩目的果敢事件,但对少数民族地方武装（民地武）的改编仍取得部分成功,此外,政府与反对党以及昂山素季的关系有所缓和。经济上,缅甸没有受到国际金融危机的严重影响,物价和币值都保持了稳定。外交上,以美国为首的西方国家虽然没有取消对缅甸的制裁,但是开始与缅甸进行接触。展望2010年,“民地武”的改编与大选是对缅甸政府的严峻挑战。     

新军人集团执政以来缅甸的经济改革和经济发展（1988—2008）

本文探讨了缅甸近20年来的经济改革和经济发展,认为在缅甸军政府执政的第一个10年（1988—1997）改革力度较大,但1997年东南亚金融危机后的几年中改革一度停滞不前,进入21世纪后才又逐渐恢复推进改革的势头,但制约缅甸改革和发展的一些基本因素仍然存在。尽管改革取得了一些成效,经济社会有所发展,重要农产品、电力生产、石油天然气产量、引进外资、外贸总量、外汇储备总额等都创造了最好的水平或最高记录,但缅甸经济中根深蒂固的结构性失常和宏观经济不平衡尚未得到纠正,缅甸积贫积弱的状况并没有得到改变,仍然是东南亚最为贫困和发展水平最低的国家之一。缅甸经济要走上稳健、快速的发展道路,还有待深化改革,扩大开放,解决宏观经济失常等问题。     

2011年的缅甸:在改革中前进

2011年是缅甸政府向民选政府转型后的第一年,政治上,新的议会和政府成立后运转正常,同时继续积极推动政治改革;经济上,缅甸私有化进程加快,外贸和外资也出现了良好的增长势头;外交方面的进展尤为明显,与美国、欧盟等西方国家关系打破了僵局,与中国建立了全面战略合作伙伴关系,与印度、日本和东盟关系不断深化。     

关于“十年一贡”的争论——19世纪末晚清政府在缅甸问题上与英国的交涉

1885年底英国占领缅甸后,中国与英国就缅甸问题进行了交涉.中国最后与英国达成了英国统治下的缅甸每届十年向中国进献方物的协议.但在英国巩固了对缅甸的占领之后,废除了这一协定.这一协定从确立到废止,反映了中、英双方世界秩序理论的差异.     

滞缅“国军”与台湾和缅甸的关系

国共战争结束后,由李弥率领的"国军"从云南退出并滞留缅甸。蒋介石"政府"基于"反攻大陆"的目的,对这批"国军"进行各种支持,对刚独立不久的缅甸政府构成甚大威胁,于是缅甸向联合国提出控诉,抗议这批"国军"在缅甸边境的军事行动。最后在国际社会的压力下,这批部队终于撤退至台,而不愿接受安排者留滞当地成为流民。     

西方国家放宽经济制裁背景下的缅甸经济发展前景

西方国家对缅甸实施长期经济制裁,深刻影响了缅甸的经济发展。2011年3月,缅甸新政府执政以来,采取了一系列政治经济改革举措,得到国际社会普遍认可,也促使西方国家放宽对缅甸的经济制裁。在此背景下,缅甸未来经济发展潜力巨大,但也面临诸多问题和挑战。     

Myanmar’s National Elections

Myanmar held its first national elections in two decades on November 7,2010.The incumbent government-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party (later re-named USDP) captured 77％ of parliamentary...     

土瓦经济特区的投资开发及其发展前景——泰国的视角

土瓦经济特区是缅甸国内推动最早的经济特区,早在军政府时期就与泰国签订合作开发协议。由于项目本身的庞杂和政治经济方面的因素,泰缅两国之间经历了较长时间的摸索过程,项目从最初的政企合作逐步转变为政府之间的合作,规划内容的变动也较多,规划面积和规划建设项目都一再发生改变,至今项目仍旧面临着诸多挑战,进展较慢。土瓦经济特区的发展对各国参与缅甸其他经济特区的开发合作具有一定的启示和借鉴意义。     

The European Union, Burma/Myanmar and ASEAN: A challenge to European norms and values or a new opportunity?

The recent events in Burma/Myanmar, beginning with the November 2010 elections and the subsequent series of reforms, have taken Europe by surprise. For the last 20?years, the European Union (EU) has been one of the most vocal critics of the junta regime, thus jeopardising its constructive relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its members. In a new context of transition, the EU has to show that it can quickly adjust to an unanticipated scenario if it does not want its credibility to remain deeply undermined in a regional space that is undergoing structural transformations. Europe and ASEAN should together find a way to consolidate both the socio-political transitions in Southeast Asia and the validity of European values.