Predicting reconviction using the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles with English prisoners

Purpose. The purpose of this study was to investigate the utility of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) in predicting reconviction in a sample of male prisoners. Method. The PICTS was administered to 174 incarcerated male offenders at the point of their release from prison. Reconviction data were collected at a 2‐year follow‐up. Results. Of the eight PICTS scales, only superoptimism differed significantly between reconvicted and non‐reconvicted prisoners, even when age and number of previous convictions were controlled for. Reconvicted offenders scored significantly higher on superoptimism, indicating a more criminal attitude. This finding was supported by a sequential logistic regression, where superoptimism contributed significant predictive power to predicting reconviction beyond a model containing age and number of previous convictions. Conclusions. The results are compared with previous research using the PICTS to predict release outcome. The utility of the PICTS as a predictor for release outcome is discussed.     

Static screening instruments for risk of minor and major violence

Background: Screens for violent convictions that are simple, accessible and parsimonious are needed, as a first stage in identifying those at high risk for further assessment. Aims: To construct and validate screening tools for minor and major violence convictions for released prisoners. Methods: Internal validation sample of 1647 serious offenders and an external validation of 46,704 general prisoners. The outcomes were binary indicators for having at least one conviction for minor and major violence. Risk factors were convictions for violence and age. Results: In the external validation sample, the instrument for risk of minor violence (PMIV) identified correctly 60.8% of male and 66.2% of female general prisoners. For risk of major violence, the instrument (PMAV) identified correctly 68.0% of male and 79.3% of female prisoners. Conclusions: The PMIV and PMAV will efficiently assist practitioners in a first stage of screening before in-depth clinical assessment of risk for future violent convictions.     

Measuring the subjective perceptions of risks and rewards of Chinese juvenile thieves

Offenders’ readiness to engage in changes that will reduce their risk of reoffending is now recognized to be as important as the design and delivery of programmes that support such change. Interest is growing in both how to increase engagement in change processes, and how to measure any improvements in engagement. This study evaluated the effects of a brief offending-focused motivational interviewing (MI) intervention on reconviction in male prisoners serving sentences for diverse crimes. Men who undertook MI were significantly less likely to be reconvicted than those who did not. The results also served to validate a stage-based measure of readiness to change derived from Prochaska and DiClemente's Transtheoretical Model. Prisoners who were offered MI increased their readiness to change by an average of one stage, while the scores of men who were not remained unchanged. Furthermore – whether men undertook MI or not – change in stage of change predicted reconviction. This was a high-risk sample, making the results intriguing for at least two reasons. First, reductions in recidivism are usually achieved only with much more intensive programmes for high-risk men. Second, according to ‘traditional’ cognitive–behavioural rehabilitation theory, programmes need to target change in dynamic risk factors directly to reduce reconviction risk. That these results were obtained with men whose initial motivation was low, and in the absence of any ‘traditional’ criminogenic rehabilitation, raises questions about whether there is more than one mechanism involved in desistance.     

The relationship between aggressive behaviour in prison and violent offending following release

Aggression during incarceration impacts on parole release decisions. However, research examining the link between aggressive behaviour in custody and violence post-release is limited, particularly in relation to adult violent offenders. Several factors complicate the use of institutional aggression as a marker of risk for future violence, including environmental causes of aggressive behaviour and adaptation to prison. This study explored the association between aggressive behaviour in prison and violent recidivism post-release in a sample of 148 adult male violent offenders. Prisoners with three or more aggressive incidents recorded in prison incurred a violent charge more often and sooner after release than those with no aggressive incidents, when controlling for age, ethnicity, length of incarceration and risk for future violence. Subjects with one or two aggressive incidents were not at increased risk of violent recidivism. These findings suggest that institutional aggression can be used to identify individuals at risk of violence following release but only when repeated aggressive behaviour is evident. Importantly, some prisoners who were not aggressive in prison were charged with violent offences post-release and some prisoners with three or more aggressive incidents were not violent following release, highlighting the complexity of using in-prison aggression as a marker for violent recidivism.     

Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Measuring the real impact of accredited offending behaviour programmes

Purpose. This paper describes an integrated model for the evaluation of offending behaviour programmes in order to assess their real impact. Arguments. To date there has been an over‐reliance on reconviction data as the sole measure of treatment efficacy. Reconviction has a fundamental role to play but cannot be considered in isolation from other empirically related treatment and re‐settlement factors. A rigorous reconviction study requires an adequate comparison group but few papers describe with transparency how this has been achieved. There is also the assumption that participation in treatment renders an individual offender as treated. A treated profile is contingent upon the treatment climate, the quality of programme delivery and how the individual responds to treatment. The influence of life‐style or dynamic risk factors must also be acknowledged in terms of their effect on reconviction. Conclusions. It is recommended that researchers use an integrated approach to the evaluation of accredited offending behaviour programmes. In order to establish a broad balance of treatment outcomes, a shift away from reconviction rates is needed. This paper presents an integrated model for the evaluation of offending behaviour programmes.     

Assessing reconviction,reoffending and recidivism in a sample of UK sexual offenders

Purpose. The rate of sexual reconviction for sexual offenders is known to be low. Sexual reconviction, however, is currently the most commonly used outcome measure in sex offender treatment evaluation studies. It is expected that sex offender treatment programmes will reduce the likelihood of reconviction amongst participants. A low base rate of sexual reconviction means that any reduction in reconviction (which could be attributed to treatment) will be small and unlikely to be statistically significant. This study aimed to assess other offence‐related outcomes for sexual offenders, in addition to reconviction. Methods. The sample comprised 173 sexual offenders who had completed a community sex offender treatment programme. Follow‐up information was collected forthe sample from programme files containing multi‐agency information. Official reconviction rates were also calculated using both Home Office and police data. Results. Collecting evidence of any offence‐related sexual behaviour during this study multiplied the sample's sexual reconviction rate by a factor of 5.3. Conclusions. The results show that broadening the outcome measure under observation indicates a higher level of offence‐related sexual behaviour displayed by sexual offenders than reflected by reconviction data. These results have implications for the outcomes measured in treatment evaluation research for sexual offenders.     

Treating alcohol-related violence: a feasibility study of a randomized controlled trial in prisons

Purpose: There is a lack of good-quality outcome evaluations of interventions for offenders whose crimes are alcohol-related. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered gold standard in treatment evaluations. Here, we report on a feasibility study for an RCT of an alcohol-related violence intervention, Control of Violence for Angry, Impulsive Drinkers (COVAID). Method: 115 adult male prisoners were randomly allocated to COVAID plus treatment as usual (TAU) or TAU only. Results: Most participants (84%) found COVAID useful. Reconviction data at six months were accessed for 109 (95%) participants. There were no differences between the two groups on violent reconvictions or all reconvictions at the six-month period, but at 17?months the COVAID group had 13% fewer people reconvicted for violence, and 20% fewer had reconvictions for any offence. Conclusion: The results indicate that an RCT is feasible and provides parameters for designing a full RCT. Differences in reconviction between groups favoured COVAID and were clinically important.     

The parole hearing: Decision or justification?

A detailed content analysis of tape-recordings of 100 randomly selected California parole hearings revealed that these hearings take the form of short, unstructured diagnostic interviews in which the hearing officers ask questions of the prisoners who respond in a very minimal way. Different patterns of questioning and prisoner response occurred for hearings where the eventual decision was to grant parole as opposed to deny parole, and this decision outcome could be predicted with a high degree of accuracy by discriminant function analyses. In general, the hearing officers made their own psychological assessments of the prisoners, even though they lacked knowledge and training in this diagnostic skill. According to the results of this study, the parole decision-making process appears to be a reliable one, but nevertheless its validity is questionable.     

The parenting possible selves of young fathers in prison

Abstract

Even when motivated to desist from crime, many high-risk offenders fail quickly following release from prison. One cause may be a lack of preparation for release. Recent research with child-sex offenders has demonstrated that men who avoided reconvictions not only had better plans made for life on parole prior to their release, but plan quality also added significant incremental validity to the prediction of recidivism after controlling for both static and dynamic measures of risk. This study examined release planning in high-risk violent prisoners in an intensive cognitive-behavioural rehabilitation programme. We compared the predictive validity of plan quality with three well-validated risk assessment instruments. Men who were reconvicted had significantly higher scores on all three risk instruments and significantly poorer plans, but plan quality did not significantly improve prediction when risk was controlled. Plan quality was also significantly poorer in men who were reimprisoned, and did significantly improve prediction over and above each risk prediction instrument. Findings suggest that higher quality release plans may protect offenders from being quickly reimprisoned, despite high levels of assessed criminal risk, and that enhancing resources put into release planning may lead to improved parole outcomes.     

Cognitive‐behavioural treatment for imprisoned offenders: An evaluation of HM Prison Service's cognitive skills programmes

Purpose. The effectiveness of prison‐based cognitive‐behavioural treatment programmes was evaluated using reconviction as the outcome measure. Method. Reconviction rates were compared between two groups of adult male offenders who were serving a custodial sentence of 2 years or more in Her Majesty's Prison Service, England and Wales. The treatment group (N =667) consisted of offenders who had voluntarily participated in one of two treatment programmes that targeted 'cognitive deficits' related to offending behaviour. The comparison group (N =1,801) was made up of offenders who had not participated in the treatment programme but were “matched” to the treatment group on a number of empirically relevant variables. Results. Treatment produced a robust reduction in the probability of reconviction (p < .001) when other relevant variables were controlled for. For treated offenders, the percentage point reduction in reconviction was 14% in medium‐lowrisk offenders and 11% in medium‐high‐risk offenders. Conclusion. These outcome results demonstrate that the principles of effective practice in the field of offender rehabilitation, which were identified through meta‐analytical research predominately in North America, can be applied to a UK offender population to similar effect.     

Effective interventions for acquisitive offenders: An investigation of cognitive skills programmes

Purpose. Previous research has suggested that cognitive skills programmes completed by offenders may be more effective in reducing reconviction with nonacquisitive than acquisitive offenders. This study investigates whether a similar pattern is present with offenders who have completed accredited cognitive skills programmes in prisons in England and Wales. Method. Questionnaires measuring the cognitive deficits targeted by the programmes were administered to 8,303 offenders participating in cognitive skills programmes while in custody. A checklist on the individuals' behaviour was also completed for each participant. The questionnaires and the behaviour checklist were completed before, after, and at 8 weeks after the end of the course. Participants were assigned to one of three groups dependent upon the number of convictions they had received for acquisitive offences; non‐acquisitive, medium acquisitive and high acquisitive. Results. Offenders in the high acquisitive group showed greater need in the cognitive deficits at the pre‐course stage than the other two groups, for both the self‐completion questionnaires and the behaviour checklist. A comparison of preand post‐course scores on the questionnaires and the behaviour checklist showed positive effect sizes for all three groups. Some of the variables showed a greater change from pre‐ to post‐course in the groups that had been convicted of more acquisitive offences. Conclusion. Cognitive skills programmes appear to be as effective with offenders convicted of acquisitive crime as non‐acquisitive crime, although highly acquisitive offenders may benefit from an additional intervention. Further studies are needed to investigate whether this same result is upheld when the outcome measure is reconviction.     

Officially recorded convictions for probationers: The relationship with self‐report and supervisory observations

Objectives. For the past 20–25 years the assessment of the outcomes of probation supervision and its associated variants has relied upon officially recorded offending as the chief determinant of ‘success’ and ‘failure’. A recent assessment of the impact of accredited programmes aimed at reducing offending called for reconviction rates to be supplemented with other outcome measures to give a more accurate picture of treatment effectiveness. Methods. Self‐reports of offending are one such alternative outcome measure, and this paper responds to recent calls for developments in this field. This paper throws further light on the frequency of offending by probationers during their probation orders, the extent to which their officers knew of this offending and the relationship between self‐reported offending and subsequent convictions. Results. The data suggest that about a half of the probationers committed at least one offence during the time they were on probation and that about a third of the probationers reported that they had committed more than four offences during this same time. In the main, probation officers reports mirrored the reports gained from the probationers. Generally speaking, the relationship between self‐reported offending and officially recorded convictions was also very close. However, this varied by the offences/convictions under consideration. Conclusion. There were slightly more probationers found guilty of property offences than had admitted to such offending during their interviews. The explanation for this appeared to have been deliberate concealment on the part of the probationer, rather than recall failure.     

假释本质研究——兼论假释权的性质及归属

假释是一项历史悠久的刑罚执行制度,但刑法理论对假释的本质至今尚未形成统一的认识。在当代,假释已从一种国家对个别罪犯的恩惠演变成罪犯普遍享有的一种权利,是罪犯在自由刑执行过程中保持良善行为的结果。因而,在关于假释本质的各种学说中,假释权利说是合理的。假释权利说是以现代刑法思想为指导的对假释本质的全新的诠释,是国家对罪犯刑罚观念和关系的嬗变在假释本质理论上的具体反映。由假释的本质所决定,假释权应是一种行政权而非司法权,假释权应由行政性质的狱政部门或专门的假释委员会行使。     

Effect of a longer versus shorter test-release interval on recidivism prediction with the psychological inventory of criminal thinking styles (PICTS)

The General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) was correlated with recidivism data obtained on 284 released male federal prisoners. The sample was divided into those inmates who had been released within 24 months of having completed the PICTS (shorter test-release interval; n = 138) and those inmates who had been released more than 24 months after having completed the PICTS (longer test-release interval; n = 146), and recidivism was measured by subsequent arrests and convictions accrued during a 6- to 78-month follow-up. Although the GCT score successfully predicted release outcome in the shorter test-release interval group, it failed to predict release outcome in the longer test-release interval group. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Behind closed doors: the effect of pretrial publicity on jury deliberations

Abstract

Effective treatment of aggressive behaviour and accurate release decision making are necessary components of adequate clinical practice in forensic psychiatric units. Unfortunately, methods to identify treatment targets and ameliorate aggressive behaviour have developed at a slower pace than risk assessment technologies. Recent progress on the identification of offence paralleling or functionally equivalent behaviour offers a framework for individually tailored treatment and idiographic release decision making, although empirical scrutiny of this approach is inadequate. This paper describes an examination of the relationship between aggressive behaviour prior to admission with aggression during inpatient psychiatric treatment, and reconviction for violent offending following discharge. Results showed a relationship between pre- and post-admission aggression but no relationship between aggression during inpatient psychiatric treatment with either pre-admission aggressive behaviour or violent recidivism. These findings indicate the importance of state psychological variables, specifically those states affected by symptoms of psychiatric illness, as well as environmental activators and inhibitors of violence that operate within the hospital. These require inclusion in an adequate functional analysis of aggressive behaviour for forensic psychiatric patients.     

Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence

ABSTRACT

Recent years have seen a consensus emerge regarding the dynamic risk factors that are associated with future violence. These risk factors are now routinely assessed in structured violence risk assessment instruments. They provide a focus for treatment in structured group programmes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to risk-related theoretical issues, whether these dynamic risk factors are causally related or simply correlates of violent offending, or the extent to which they change as a consequence of treatment. More challenging is the lack of evidence to suggest that changes in these dynamic risk factors actually result in reductions in violent offending. In this paper we consider the meaning of the term dynamic risk, arguing that only those factors that, when changed, reduce the likelihood of violent recidivism, can be considered to be truly dynamic. We conclude that few of the violence risk factors commonly regarded as dynamic fulfil this requirement. There is a need to think more critically about assessment findings and treatment recommendations relating to dynamic risk, and conduct research that establishes, rather than assumes, that certain dynamic risk factors are directly related to violence. Some suggestions for advancing knowledge and practice are provided.     

Duration of the time to reconviction: Evidence from UK prisoner discharge data

Duration models were used to investigate reconviction risks for a sample of 34,126 offenders released from prison in England and Wales during 1998. Different versions of the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to a comprehensive data set covering several offense types. Factors such as age (modelled using bands rather than a linear or quadratic format), gender, convictions-history, and offense type were found to be strongly associated with the risk of reconviction. Interactions between factors were also included and it was shown that the discrepancy between the risk of reconviction for males and females became weaker as the number of previous convictions increased. The study helped identify the subgroups of offenders for whom reconviction risks are greatest and the times when they seem to be most vulnerable to reconviction. Implications are explored for the design of prisoner resettlement programs and the prioritization of offenders for more intensive forms of intervention.     

How long did it last? A 10-year reconviction follow-up study of high intensity training for young offenders

Objectives

Most research has suggested that correctional boot camps are not very successful in reducing reoffending, but recent evidence has been more encouraging for programs that include significant rehabilitative components. In line with this, High Intensity Training (HIT) for offenders aged 18–21 at Thorn Cross Young Offender Institution in England was followed by a significant reduction in the number of reconvictions in a 2-year follow up. This article aims to evaluate the impact of the HIT program after 10 years.

Methods

The evaluation used a quasi-experimental design in which male young offenders who received HIT were individually matched, on their risk of reconviction, to a comparison group who went to other prisons. Official reconviction data, including the prevalence, frequency, types, and costs of offenses were used as the outcome measures.

Results

Offenders who received HIT had a significantly lower prevalence and frequency of reconvictions, but their superiority over the control group reduced over time (after about 4 years). However, the cumulative number of convictions that were saved increased steadily over time, from 1.35 per offender at 2 years to 3.35 per offender at 10 years. The cumulative cost savings also increased over time, and the benefit:cost ratio, based on fewer convictions, increased from 1.13 at 2 years to 3.93 at 10 years.

Conclusions

The beneficial effects of the HIT program became more obvious over time. More randomized experiments and long-term follow-up research, including regular interviews, are needed to evaluate the cumulative and persisting effects of correctional interventions more accurately.     

Examining Predictors of Parole Release in a Rural Female Jail Population

Parole has long been a linchpin of correctional practices but few studies have examined discretionary parole release in a female population. The current study examines factors, both static risk and dynamic needs, that influence parole decision making in a rural female jail population. The researchers collected data on parole releases from a rural county jail over a 3-year period beginning in 2012 (N?=?138). Offenders obtained a recommendation for parole release from a reentry assessment team that met at the jail each month to evaluate cases for parole eligibility. Logistic regression was used to explain variance in the factors considered by the reentry assessment team and it was evident that both static risk factors and dynamic needs play a role in discretionary parole release. We also examined obstacles or challenges that female offenders face when paroling to a rural location. Several policy recommendation related to the study are addressed.