布什主义的影响

一、实现了对克林顿总统的美国国家安全战略的巨大转变 二战以来，美国的国家安全战略大体上分为冷战时期的“遏制战略”、“超越遏制战略”和冷战后美国的对外扩张战略。目前美国仍然处于这一全球扩张的过程中。总的说，美国的国家安全战略有“三大支柱”，即安全、经贸和人权。主要是因应2001年“9·11”事件和国际恐怖主义，乔治·W·布什总统在美国的综合实力基础上，借助反对恐怖主义之机维持冷战后美国在世界上的绝对优势和“领导地位”，推出其国家安全战略即布什主义，强调军事主义，     

美国国家反恐中心简介

“9·11”事件使美国清醒地认识到恐怖主义对美国国家安全的威胁。从2002年起，在美国颁布的历届、历版各层级安全战略中，官方无一例外地将恐怖主义列为国家安全的首要威胁。     

领导世界还是支配世界?--分析美国国家安全战略的一种视角

自冷战结束以来,美国应当实行何种国家安全战略以及人们应当如何看待美国国家安全战略的问题,一直吸引了许多学者和政策分析家的注意.本文并不具体分析美国的国家安全战略,而是试图提出一种分析美国国家安全战略的新视角,即从是要领导世界还是支配世界的角度探究这一战略之争,并从概念、内涵和理论基础方面对这两种战略抉择进行分析和比较.     

美国国家利益与目标确立的特点和原因探析

针对不同的时代背景,以及基于对不同时期国际格局的认识,美国对其国家安全利益和战略目标进行了不同的阐述和调整,但所体现出的总体特点却是连贯和明确的。《美国国家安全战略报告》是1987年以来美国政府阐述其国家安全战略的首要战略性文件。本文结合对这一系列《报告》的分析阐明了美国在不同时期界定国家利益、确定战略目标时所体现出的总体特点,即全面性、广泛性、复杂性和在现实主义与理想主义之间平衡;并进而对其原因进行了探析。     

“拒绝衰落”与美国“要塞化”：特朗普的大战略

美国是大战略理论与实践的重镇。冷战结束后，“自由霸权主义”构成了美国大战略的基本内涵。在相对权势有所衰落的背景下，特朗普政府于2017年12月提出的新版《美国国家安全战略》体现出美国大战略转型的端倪。该战略是对“自由霸权主义”的颠覆：除在战略目标(追求或巩固世界霸权地位)大体一致外，该战略极力强调美国安全环境的恶化和外部挑战的大幅增强，在战略路径上主张单方面强化美国的经济与军事实力，放弃多边主义，撤回对国际机制的支持，以期在未来的大国竞争中取胜。特朗普的战略存在内在的缺陷，效果亦存在颇多不确定性，与国际政治经济发展趋势明显相悖，对中国国家安全环境产生了较为直接的影响。     

小布什政府时期美国索马里政策研究

1993年“黑鹰坠落”事件后，索马里逐渐淡出了美国的视野。“9·11”恐怖袭击，使美国外交政策的重心发生了变化，反恐被提到了国家安全战略的高度。担心索马里这样的“失败国家”成为又一个阿富汗式的滋生恐怖主义的“温床”，索马里的内乱被再次提上美国非洲战略的议事日程。布什执政的八年时间里，美国加大了对索马里的介入。然而，美国的政策既没能给这个战乱纷飞的国家带来和平，也没能阻止伊斯兰激进势力的扩张。美国的索马里政策是失败的，是布什迷信武力，不相信和解原则的失败，是“布什主义”的恶果。     

布什的战略遗产及其前景

布什执政7年来，先后推出了带有很强冒险性和进攻性的战略原则“布什主义”和“新布什主义”，这些原则推行的后果，无论是收益或损害，都将作为美国的战略遗产传承下去。梳理和总结布什的战略遗产，有助于分析研究今后美国全球战略的走向。     

一体化背景下的国家安全 战略能力探讨

能力是实现国家安全战略目标的基础，在国家安全战略实践中，能力是重中之重，但国家安全理论对能力问题的探讨却有所不足。国家安全战略能力是国家安全理论中的新概念，与国家安全能力、国家战略能力等传统概念既有联系又有区别，主要是指推动和落实国家安全战略的能力。随着国家安全概念不断拓展，国家安全战略能力也需要放在一体化的国家战略体系背景下深化分析。一体化概念运用到国家安全领域时，主要指统筹安全与发展的关系、各安全领域之间的关系、体系与能力的关系。国家行为主体建设和运用国家安全战略能力时，需要统筹这三对关系进行思考。一体化背景下，在国家安全战略能力要素方面，需要注意到战略资源、转化机制和谋划水平的拓展与延伸；在国家安全战略能力的结构方面，需要注意国家安全战略能力建设和运用各环节、各安全领域战略能力、国内外安全战略能力的变化。文章结合中国所处的当前战略环境，认为一体化背景下提升中国国家安全战略能力的主要途径包括强化战略领导能力、聚合国际国内资源、优化能力转化机制、军民融合发展和强化人才队伍建设。     

《2006年美国国家安全战略报告》解析

《国家安全战略报告》是美国政府行政当局重要的战略性文件, 对美国政府的外交、 军事、安全领域的政策措施有很大影响力。通过解读美国国家安全战略报告, 我们可以从一定程度 上了解美国外交政策的战略走向。《2006年美国国家安全战略报告》的出台, 为我们了解小布什政 府未来的外交政策走向, 提供了一个观测窗口。     

“重振美国,领导全球”——奥巴马政府《国家安全战略报告》评述

奥巴马政府《国家安全战略报告》出台。《报告》是"9.11"事件以来美国国家安全战略的重大调整,是对布什政府战略失误深刻反思的结果;《报告》明确提出"重振美国,领导全球"的战略目标和以安全、繁荣、价值观与国际秩序为四大支柱确保美国利益的战略方针;《报告》强调加强国内建设来增强美国的实力地位;既着眼现实,又关注长远;强调综合运用多种手段推进和实现国家利益。奥巴马国家安全战略的推行也将面临国内政治、经济、外交等多方面的制约因素。     

Diplomatic Interactions and Negotiations

This article examines the role of state actors, organization agencies, and individual agents in diplomatic interactions and negotiations. States as diplomatic actors, organizations as diplomatic agencies, and individuals as diplomatic agents enter into complex and interdependent relationships. Proposing a three‐level analysis of interstate interactions and diplomatic negotiations, I argue that no diplomatic negotiation happens without interactions between parties at the state, organizational, and individual levels. The agency–structure paradigm provides a conceptual framework for understanding behavioral and structural properties of international interactions and their influence on diplomatic negotiations. Diplomatic negotiation employs specific forms of interaction, using a distinct language, protocol norms, symbols, ceremonies, and rituals. The state's “self” (as a social conception of its identity, values, and interests) affects the process of diplomatic negotiation. By managing, organizing, and improving international interactions at the actor, agency, and agent levels, negotiating parties can advance the process and effectiveness of diplomatic negotiation.     

Enhancing Community Leadership Negotiation Skills to Build Civic Capacity

Most intra‐ and interorganizational decision making entails negotiations, and even naturally talented negotiators can improve with training. Executive trainings for managers and leadership programs for publicly elected officials, public managers, and nongovernmental organizations frequently include negotiation modules. These efforts, however, have yet to reach community leaders who also need to develop their negotiation skills. We propose that members of disadvantaged low‐income communities who lack educational and economic opportunities, and are less able to advocate for their own interest, need to build and strengthen their civic capacity, including their negotiation skills, to become more effective parties to decisions affecting them. While many professionals and executives have access to training, such opportunities are less accessible to the leaders of these disadvantaged communities. Although such leaders draw from their own heuristic knowledge, skills, and abilities, they could also benefit from sharpening their negotiation skills. We propose that the multidimensional understanding of their community that members accumulate through direct experience is indispensable, nontransferable to outsiders, and not teachable through in‐class activities. Leaders with the ability to leverage knowledge and assets to connect effectively to community insiders as well as to outside people, institutions, and resources, however, possess some specific inherent personality traits as well an understanding of social structures, strategies, and agency, which can be taught and learned. Such skills as how to conduct negotiations around the table and away from it and how to identify community members who can help and how to rally them are also teachable. The cases were chosen to illustrate the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) that make these leaders effective in and beyond their communities. We highlight those KSAs that we think are teachable in the framework of a negotiation module in community leadership training to enhance civic capacity for community betterment.     

规模化猪场生产母猪心力衰竭的病理学观察

为探究生产母猪心力衰竭(heart failure)的病理变化和组织学特征,对广西某规模化猪场45头死亡生产母猪进行了临床症状观察、大体解剖和组织病理学检查。结果,其中18头病猪临床症状表现为易疲劳,精神沉郁,呼吸困难,夜间咳嗽和突然死亡;剖检可见心包严重黏连或心室扩张、心包积液、心肌出血、心脏横径与纵径之比增大,以及肝、脾、肺、肾的淤血肿胀;组织病理学变化表现为心肌肿胀变性或萎缩坏死,纤维素性肺炎、间质性肺炎、化脓性肺炎和支气管肺炎,以及多个器官的淤血。结果表明,心力衰竭为母猪突然死亡的重要原因,其主要病理学特征为心室扩张或心包粘连,心肌肿胀坏死、心肌纤维化并伴随多器官淤血病变。     

Experiential and emotional encounters of women planners in Africa

Women planners in Africa do not constitute a critical mass: their numbers remain negligible and their output unrecognised, while mentors and role models still tend to be male. Women's experiences are undervalued, and their knowledge is often excluded in policy, project planning, and implementation. This article arises not from systematic academic research but from confessional, reflective, pilot research based on personal experience and the experiences reported by 25 women planners between 1999 and 2004. It deliberately seeks to break the monotony of drawing from survey results which are often detached from experiential and emotional encounters. Using anecdotal material from Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, it examines the training and professional environment of the ‘planneress’; and discusses the emotions, expectations, and experiences of female planners in everyday encounters.     

禽流感病毒RT-PCR及多重RT-PCR检测技术的建立

研究建立了禽流感病毒(AIV)A型、H5、N1、H9、N2亚型特异性RT-PCR及H5/N1、H9/N2、A/H5/N1多重RT-PCR检测技术,用于检测或同时检测和鉴别A型及H5N1、H9N2亚型AIV。所建立的RT-PCR和多重RT-PCR从核酸提取、基因扩增到产物分析在3~4h内即可完成,经对36株AIV及相关病毒分离物检测,与病毒分离鉴定的结果完全一致,且与相关病毒或其他亚型无交叉反应。采用多重RT-PCR检测80份棉拭子样品,并与病毒分离鉴定方法比较,二者H5N1、H9N2亚型的鉴定结果完全吻合。结果表明,该方法具有快速、敏感、特异等优点,为临诊样品中AIV型及H5N1、H9N2亚型鉴定和诊断的有效方法。     

美国《网络空间国际战略》评析

在信息化时代,网络空间承载着国家政治、经济、文化和军事发展与安全的重荷。网络空间存在的黑客攻击、网络犯罪和网络恐怖主义事件层出不穷,因此网络空间安全已上升到国家安全战略的层面,美国政府于2011年5月16日发布的《网络空间国际战略》引起世界各国瞩目。美国《网络空间国际战略》以"共同创造繁荣、安全、开放的网络世界"为基本宗旨,以"基本自由、隐私和信息流动自由"为核心原则,从经济、网络安全、司法、军事、网络管理、国际发展、网络自由等诸方面为美国未来网络安全战略的发展指明了方向。《网络空间国际战略》的出台表明美国政府已将网络安全提升到国际战略的新高度,它隐含着美国谋求网络空间霸权的战略目标,具有引领国际战略新变革和引发网络空间价值观冲突的现实战略效能,它对中美关系的影响和中国的应对之策也是值得认真分析和思考的。     

Parliamentary Questions,Newspaper Coverage,and Consumer Confidence in Times of Crisis: A Cross-National Comparison

This article investigates the interactions among parliamentary questions, newspaper coverage on the economic crisis, and consumer confidence. It focuses on France, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands for the period 2005–2016. Based on insights from political agenda-setting and media effects research, we expect multidirectional relationships to be present. Parliamentary records and newspaper archives are used to analyze the monthly amount of attention for the economic crisis. Pooled time series models and vector autoregression analyses are employed to demonstrate that indeed, politicians, journalists, and citizens depend on one another, but also that remarkable cross-national and over-time differences exist. In the countries where the economy was severely damaged by the crisis (France and Spain), news coverage is less strongly affecting both parliamentarians and citizens. However, when the economic situation worsens, political agenda-setting influences get stronger,while media effects on consumer confidence becomeweaker over time.     

“土耳其模式”的新变化及其影响

凯末尔时代的"土耳其模式"是世俗权威政治的产物,其基本内涵是以现代化为目标的激进世俗主义、民族主义和西方化。土耳其历史的发展重塑并改变着土耳其模式的内涵,并形成了埃尔多安时代的新版"土耳其模式",即奉行消极世俗主义、民主化、市场经济和对外自主性,强调尊重宗教传统价值观。新版"土耳其模式"是土耳其教俗力量较量的产物,具有一定的民主政治属性,显示出土耳其伊斯兰主义温和化以及伊斯兰与民主可以相容的特点。新版"土耳其模式"为政治转型中的阿拉伯诸国提供了借鉴,并产生了示范效应。但是,"土耳其模式"乃独特历史发展的产物,是难以被复制的,它本身尚未定型,有其局限性和过渡性特征。     

The Rhythm of the Deal: Negotiation as a Dance

In all the literature on the theory and practice of negotiation, the governing metaphors have been games, war, and fighting. This is true not only for tactical schools of power‐based negotiation but even for more constructive, interest‐based approaches. Our language is infused with talk of tactics, flanks, concessions, gaining ground, and winning. This article explores the possible consequences of abandoning this picture in favor of the less‐explored metaphor of the dance. We argue that both the content and the process of negotiation can change dramatically once we think of bargaining as an aesthetic activity that can provide intrinsic joy as well as extrinsic benefits. Such a “dance” provides plenty of room for competition as well as cooperation, as movements can be spirited and confrontational as well as smooth and harmonious. We identify many forms of dance that can occur within negotiation and explore three: the dance of positioning, where passions and presentations interact proudly; the dance of empathy, when the partners come to better understand each other; and the dance of concessions, where the deal is struck and the music concludes. Finally, we discuss how the dance can be employed pedagogically, in teaching and training negotiation and mediation. In particular, the Brazilian dance of capoeira illustrates holistically and experientially how movement and rhythm can be interpreted both as fighting and as dancing and how we can come to see a process as both aesthetic and purposeful at the same time. First feeling, then thinking, and, finally, speaking, we can use this medium to explore the dynamics of confrontation and cooperation in a negotiation setting.     

Political-economic determinants of electoral participation in India

ABSTRACT

Elections bestow popular legitimacy to the democracies and, accordingly, electoral participation is an important indicator of the quality of democracy and civic engagement. Understanding what factors drive citizens’ decision to vote is central to the theory and practice of democracy and has implications for voter mobilization efforts of political parties and government agencies. We study the individual level determinants of electoral turnout in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections exploiting a nationally representative India Human Development Survey-2005 (IHDS-2005). We find convincing yet mixed evidence in support of political-institutional factors, and some variables of the psychological, mobilization, socialization, and resource models in explaining voter turnout. Public confidence in state government, newspapers, and judiciary, television watching, participation in civic body meetings, local conflict, caste conflict in neighborhood, local political connections, and caste association membership significantly increase the predicted probability of turnout. Factors like time family lived in the place, age, holding of below-poverty-line (BPL) cards, and receipt of public benefits increase voter turnout; whereas, business association membership, being female, metro-city resident, business being the main income source, urban residence, and the age quadratic reduce voter turnout. Separate analyses of the rural and urban, male and female contexts largely obtain the same line of results.