中国与印度国际竞争力的比较与解释

本文首先对中印两国经济社会总体发展状况进行了比较,认为无论从经济指标还是从社会指标考察,中国均比印度处于更高的发展阶段。对两国制造业国际竞争力的分析比较表明,中国制造业的国际竞争力总体上强于印度。对两国服务业国际竞争力的研究表明:其一,在大多数年份,印度服务业的综合国际竞争力强于中国;其二,中国服务业国际竞争力的提升主要来源于竞争优势。虽然中国服务业综合竞争力弱于印度,但实际中国服务业的竞争优势始终强于印度,只是由于中国制造业发展速度更快,才使得中国服务业的比较优势弱于印度。文章最后从劳动力素质、基础设施、政府作用、社会异质性、宗教文化、海外侨民六个方面分析了中印之间竞争力存在差异的原因。     

后冷战国际体系变动与中欧关系

就后冷战时代的中欧关系而言,国际体系的影响是具有现实主义解释力的视角之一。一方面,这一关系由冷战的历史结构演变而来。虽然冷战的结束为之带来了巨大的影响,令其发生了分水岭式的变化,但新的国际体系仍然受到上个时代遗留的体系性因素的制约。另一方面,中国和欧洲二者本身都是当代国际政治中的重要变量,其双边关系对国际体系的演化又起着显而易见的反作用。因此,中欧关系与国际体系变动之间时而呈现一种互为因果的联系,这一联系将因中、欧力量的增长及其互动的深化而趋强。     

缅甸对印度人和孟加拉人的政策

印度人在缅甸社会比其他外侨更不受欢迎。这是由于印度人同缅甸原住民在种族和宗教上的差异很大 ,且印度人很不容易接受缅甸的语言、服装和风土习俗。因此 ,缅甸人叫他们“嘎拉”。值得关注的是 ,由于早期历史上的交往因素 ,缅甸与印度在文化特别是在宗教方面有牢固的关系。在殖民地时代 ,印度人的地位很显著 ,虽然他们排在欧洲人之后 ,位居第二 ,但他们把资金分投到农业、制造业和服务业。 196 2年以来 ,印度人的政治、经济和社会自主权明显下降 ,但自 1988年 9月现军人政府上台后 ,印度人的状况已得到改善。     

《改革与发展中的印度经济》简介

赵建军副教授撰写的《改革与发展中的印度经济》一书于 2 0 0 4年 1月由中南大学出版社出版。《改革与发展中的印度经济》共 2 8万字 ,分上中下三篇。上篇回顾了 1 991年以来印度经济改革的历程 ,主要阐述和分析了印度的工业、农业、基础设施和财政金融等部门改革和发展的状况。中篇主要介绍和评估了印度吸引和利用外资情况、外资政策的演变 ,并对中印两国吸引和利用外资情况、外资政策进行比较。下篇题为“印度经济与中国经济”。这一篇除了对中印经济发展状况做了总体比较外 ,还就印度反倾销对中印双边贸易的影响、中印两国国家创新能力比…     

印度洋海权竞争与印度的战略反应

冷战结束以来,印度洋的战略重要性逐步提升,美国一直在印度洋维持着强大的军事力量,中国、日本和澳大利亚也在不同程度上介入印度洋事务.印度海洋战略的目标是主导印度洋,却对其他国家介入印度洋采取了不同的战略反应.印度对美国由防范逐渐演变为防范与合作兼有的平衡自主型战略反应,对中国和日本分别采取了防范主导型与合作主导型战略反应,对澳大利亚则长期维持着合作缓进型战略反应.威胁认知与收益预期对印度的战略反应提供了整体性解释.对美国威胁认知的降低是印度对美国降低防范并与之开展合作的主要因素;中国军事能力的提升以及印度由来已久的关于中国"威胁"意图的判断,很大程度上影响了印度对中国的战略反应;印度对日澳两国的威胁认知较低,但对日本较高的收益预期促使印日之间的海洋合作更为深入.     

美印战略伙伴关系与中国:影响和对策

冷战结束以来,美印关系逐步迈上一个新的台阶.基于共同的利益和价值观,美印在经济和安全领域展开了前所未有的合作.美印战略伙伴关系对中国与这两个国家的关系将产生深远的影响.本文通过分析美国对中印关系和印度对中美关系的影响,以及中国与美印两国分别存在的共性和分歧,提出了中国在中美印战略三角关系中可采取的战略和政策.     

服务经济发展与长三角城市群经济一体化

浦东开发20年以来，长三角城市群经济实现了快速增长的伟大“奇迹”，但是作为中国“综合实力最强的区域”，长三角城市群的经济增长方式仍然是一种资本驱动型经济增长方式，提高全要素生产率对地区经济增长的贡献、加快服务业发展是未来长三角城市群实现经济可持续增长的决定因素。本文重点分析了长三角城市群服务经济发展的四大机遇，并提出长...     

中印参与区域经济合作现状分析与比较

中国和印度同为亚洲发展中大国,20世纪末以来,两国都在加强各自的区域经济合作.本文分析了中国和印度参与区域经济合作的现状,并对中印参与区域经济合作的特点进行了比较,探讨了二者的共性与不同.     

冷战后印度与东盟关系:调整、发展与趋势

20世纪90年代,适应大国崛起战略的需要,印度的"东向政策"出台。印度的"东向政策"推动了冷战后印度与东盟关系的调整与发展。冷战后的印度与东盟关系的发展呈现"双轮驱动"的态势,一方面印度发展与东盟国家的双边关系,另一方面,依托东盟相关机制,印度发展同东盟的多边关系。未来10-15年,印度与东盟关系的发展将是经贸与安全"齐头并进"的趋势。     

冷战后日本对华政策的变化与中国的对策

冷战后日本在追求成为一个“正常国家”的过程中 ,采取了与冷战前追求日中友好所不同的政策。虽然尚无证据认为日本在追求与中国建立一个不友好甚至是对抗的关系 ,但中国在对日政策的问题上仍应争取主动即修正 1 972年以来一直坚持的“友好”、“合作”等传统上的习惯标准 ,而应以中国自身的利益为中心处理中日两国关系。在这一视角下 ,日本的对华政策是否能回到冷战前的友好姿态并不是最重要的因素。     

能力分配、制度共容性和战略关注度:冷战后亚太多边经贸合作制度构建的成败分析

冷战结束后,亚太地区以经济合作制度为主的各类制度建设迅速发展,并嵌入到地区秩序中,这些制度的发展经历了不同的历程,产生了不同的结果。从制度变迁理论的视角来看,地区制度的发展历程可以分为制度需求、制度构建和制度的维持与深化三个阶段,不同因素在各阶段发挥的作用不同。具体而言,在亚太地区,能力分配、制度共容性和霸权国对地区的战略关注度这三个变量对于地区经贸合作制度构建的成败起到了决定性的影响。文章将后冷战时期的亚太制度变迁分为四个时期,通过考察各个时期内最具代表性的制度来检验上述理论假设。文章认为,当地区内大国力量对比悬殊时,只有同时具备较高的霸权国战略关注度和较强的制度共容性时,地区合作制度的构建才能成功;当地区内力量对比接近时,地区合作的路径会趋于多元化,具备较高的霸权国战略关注度或具有较高共容性的地区合作制度的构建都可以获得成功。因此对于中国而言,在霸权国对地区合作的战略关注度下降和大国力量对比接近时,要推动当前地区经济合作,需要保持战略定力,更多着眼于地区合作中的互利共赢。     

The 2008 Financial Crisis and the Flying Geese Model

In the twentieth century Japan embarked on an economic developmental path that came to be known as the Flying Geese Model. The geopolitical milieu after the Second World War provided Japan with favourable conditions for rapid economic growth and industrialization. By the 1950s, many had noticed the success of the model and it was subsequently adopted by other East Asian countries. They too enjoyed decades of remarkable economic growth. An important element of the model is growth driven by export to the USA and Europe. As a result of the 2008 financial crisis, the traditional markets of the geese are shrinking. The new situation poses grave challenges to both the existing flying geese economies and latecomer economies which wish to follow the model. East Asian countries are responding to the situation by broadening and deepening their existing economic linkages and developing new ones. This represents a continuation of East Asian regionalism in the wake of the 1997 financial crisis.     

中国崛起与东亚地区秩序演变

冷战结束后,东亚地区秩序的变化显而易见,但如何界定当今的东亚地区秩序却一直存有争论。本文试图从地区秩序的界定和分类入手,结合冷战后有关东亚地区秩序的争论,分析中国崛起对东亚地区秩序的影响,以辨析和把握东亚地区秩序的发展方向。作者发现,冷战后有关东亚秩序的争论说明,东亚地区尚未形成得到普遍认可的秩序安排,但决定其未来发展走向的两个核心因素已愈发明确,即美国的东亚同盟体系的延续和中国经济实力的崛起。东亚地区秩序演变趋势是,美国依托其东亚同盟体系与经济崛起的中国协调,共同塑造地区规则,维护地区稳定安全。其具体特征是:美国依靠其地区同盟发挥作用;中国与美国及其盟国通过多边或双边协调解决地区安全问题;中国自我克制缓解地区安全问题。决定东亚地区秩序未来的关键是既有的美国东亚同盟体系如何应对中国崛起。要巩固、深化地区协调共治秩序,需要美国及其东亚同盟体系对中国的自我克制政策做出善意的战略回应。     

The economic development of Vietnam,Laos, and Cambodia

The three states of Indochina are engaged in the most radical economic transformation of any of the nations in Southeast Asia. Of the three countries, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, with a population of 70 million, is the most important to the market economies of Asia and the West. Although their individual situations vary greatly, the systemic reforms of all three countries emphasize decentralization and privatization, and permit market forces considerable scope in determining economic activity. They remain several decades behind most of their counterparts in the rest of Southeast Asia with respect to the standards of living of their populations and the overall development of their economies. With the end of the Cold War, they have had to redirect their external political relationships and must contemplate internal political reforms occasioned by influences accompanying a new economic orientation. In Vietnam and Laos, the Communist party is in command of the society’s fundamental decisions; it is determined to retain political control. In Cambodia, pluralism and a form of democracy are mandated by the United Nations and by the new Cambodian constitution. Over the near term, full membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be important to all three countries once their economies become compatible with the other ASEANs.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace , by Dennis Ross.
The Truth about Camp David: The Untold Story about the Collapse of the Middle East Peace Process , by Clayton E. Swisher.
The 9/11 Report. Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Authorized Edition.
Turkey-Iran Relations, 1979-2004: Revolution, Ideology, War, Coups and Geopolitics , by Robert Olson.
A Diplomatic Revolution: Algeria's Fight for Independence and the Origins of the Post-Cold War Era , by Matthew Connelly.     

北约东扩:历史地理规律的延续?

北约东扩是“冷战”后欧洲地缘政治变化的主要事件 ,它已取得了令人瞩目的进展。北约东扩有着久远的地缘政治理论根基 ,马汉的“海权论”、麦金德的“陆权论”以及历史上德国的战争地缘政治学和法国的地缘政治学理论无不包含了对欧洲权力意义的论证。本文旨在通过对“海权论”、“陆权论”及德国、法国地缘政治理论中“东进”的主张和新地缘政治学中欧洲联合思想的剖析 ,探究北约东扩的历史地理规律。     

National Competitiveness in Comparative Perspective: Evidence from Latin America

The term competitiveness is widely applied as a catch‐all for investor‐friendly policies and institutions. This article argues that sloppy applications of the term ignore the possibilities of policy tradeoffs and varieties of institutional choices. Popular conceptualizations of the term describe three discernible clusters of economic policies and institutions. One cluster captures openness to international trade; a second gauges regulatory impediments to private sector competition; a third refers to public sector investments in human capital, security, and infrastructure. This essay develops three empirical indexes to operationalize these clusters and shows that these concepts are not only theoretically but also empirically distinct. In particular, the correlation between these measures is not especially high in a sample of Latin American countries. The larger economies in the region tend to be more competitive on the regulatory and public goods dimensions but fall well behind smaller economies in terms of external competitiveness, broadly conceived.     

Economic development and structural setting: Hong Kong electronics industry

A structural analysis of the economic development in developing economies is proposed. A development model is constructed and examined against the experience of the Hong Kong electronics industry. The proposed model indicated that the local structural settings of developing economies did not foster a high profit incentive and investment environment for rapid economic development. However, the same settings when integrated into an international structural context can generate a structural profit that is based on the difference in the cost of production. This structural profit can act as an engine of growth for the whole economy. The application of the model has shown that the calculation of the structural profit is not simply based on certain factors of production but on the overall cost of production. In addition, the application also indicated that three main aspects of the structural settings have played the determining role in shaping the development of the industry, namely, the export network, risk and uncertainty in the local structural settings and peripheral industries.     

Globalisierung und die Nachfrage nach sozialer Sicherheit. Eine kritische Analyse des „domestic demand“-Ansatzes

Comparative research on the impact of globalization and international competition underlined that public policies were strikingly stable, contrary to the expected cutbacks in social expenditures. This resilience of the welfare state is explained by voters’ demands for social protection which can be related to new uncertainties connected to economic openness. The domestic demand approach conceives the welfare state as a means to compensate for the employment risks resulting from a globalized economy, and as a means to foster the acceptance of an open economy. This paper analyzes the link between globalization, insecurity and domestic demand. It considers the class specific effects of economic openness. The domestic demand approach is subjected to a test based on data from the International Social Survey Programme (waves 1990, 1996 and 2006) and additional country-level features. The results show that unemployment makes citizen’s preferences for social security expand, while economic openness has a negative effect: the more open the economy of a country the lower social security demand of citizens. Contrary to the expectations, the more people perceive job security to be threatened the lower is support for social security. Obviously, citizens on the average are skeptical against rising unemployment protection since they fear higher burdens by social expenditures without directly benefitting from them. Those still employed do not vote for more expenditure. However, the lowest social class increasingly demands social security in the context of open economies. Over time, social security demand gets more mired at the low end of the social spectrum. The hypothesis that economic openness spreads economic risks and feelings of insecurity over broad social strata is rejected. The results support the debate on dualization processes.     

Reflections on Japan's past

Fifty years after the devastation of World War II, Japan's remarkable long‐term, export‐driven economic success is known as the East Asian development model and East Asian economies have become the engine for the world's economic growth. Yet the collapse of Japan's 1980s over‐inflated “bubble economy” has created apathy and pessimism, says former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone. In May 1995, on the occasion of his seventy‐seventh birthday, after more than 45 years in the Diet, IIPS Chairman Nakasone reflects on Japan's modern history and issues a call for renewal in the following speech. Above all, he says, “Japan does have a few mavericks” and “people with true convictions [should] come forward . . . the Japanese are waiting for genuine leadership.”