The idea of selective release

We interviewed 203 juvenile inmates housed in a juvenile corrections facility in New Orleans, using a revised version of the Rand instrument developed by Chaiken and Chaiken. The purpose was to demonstrate how prediction scales, used in the past to identify high-rate offenders for selective incapacitation, actually may be more suitable for identifying low-rate offenders for selective release. Our results show that the prediction scale performed worse at identifying high-rate offenders but better at identifying low-rate offenders. We discuss the policy implications of our findings.     

A Collective Vision of Artistry: The MacDowell Colony and the Organizational Design of Creativity

This article is a scholarly overview and analysis of Hurricane Katrina's social and cultural devastation of the unique, indigenous culture of New Orleans. This study has been prepared as a scholarly and academic endeavor. However, it is also the basis for consideration of measures that could be taken to facilitate the reconstitution of the living environment of New Orleans in a way that is respectful of its folk culture. The physical devastation caused by the hurricane severely compromised the precious cultural communities of the French colonial Gulf Coast. The impact was most devastating to New Orleans because of its distinctive folk culture, which includes vivid cultural rituals such as the Mardi Gras Indians, jazz, the jazz funeral tradition, second line parades, and local cuisine. This culture is potentially fragile because it is a living culture—not based on collections preserved within the walls of a museum, but rather in the lives of its people. It is indisputably worthy of respect and revitalization. This project, realized through intensive research, will surely benefit the academic community and, most important, the people of New Orleans, to whom this document is dedicated. The project has been interesting, but it is an even greater honor to have the opportunity to advocate the necessity of reconstituting the folk culture of New Orleans through positive action to sustain the city's unique way of life. This will not be easy, but it is crucial for any "new New Orleans."     

MEASURING LAMBDA THROUGH SELF-REPORTS*

The Rand Corporation 's pioneering study on self-reported measures of individual offending rates has generated considerable controversy. In this study, the Rand methodology was refined in an attempt to achieve more precise estimates of λ Individual interviews, a more detailed calendar system, and month-by-month reporting were used with an intake cohort of 403 recently convicted male offenders. This paper examines variability in offending rates within individuals, in particular their highest rates and most recent rates, and the implications for measuring λ     

The judicial response to crime and the criminal: A utilitarian perspective

This paper examines the hypothesis that the sentencing decision of the criminal court is consistent with utilitarian principles and that the judiciary uses the length of incarceration as an instrument for the maximization of societal well-being. A theoretical model is developed, whose principal arguments are offender and offense attributes, resource costs, the availability of alternative sanctions, and the general crime rate. Four questions are considered: (i) How does a utilitarian court respond to a general increase in crime? (ii) How does the availability of alternative sanctions affect the length of incarceration ? (iii) How does a utilitarian court respond to offenders who are more likely to recidivate? (iv) How does the court respond to offenders who commit more serious offenses? The model is empirically evaluated, using cross-sectional data for the state of Georgia for individuals sentenced to prison in 1978 for a UCR index offense. The theoretical model provides few specific behavioral rules for the court to follow. Answers to the foregoing four questions are shown to depend upon both the efficacy of sanctions and the cost of the administration of those sanctions. It is not possible to predict, for example, how a utilitarian court should respond to a rise in crime or how it should respond to offenders who are likely to commit more serious offenses. The empirical analysis shows that, in fact, the sentence length varied inversely with the general offense rate, with the likelihood of imprisonment, and with the length of postprison probation. The evidence also indicates that sentences vary with the individual's original record but not with the offender's age or race. With the exception of possible gender bias, the court's sentencing behavior was consistent with utilitarian principles.     

The effectiveness of felony probation: Results from an eastern state

Data from New Jersey were used to examine the effectiveness of felony probation. Examination of more than 2,000 burglars, robbers, and controlled substance offenders placed on probation in 1976–1977 showed that their recidivism at three, four, and approximately 10 years after sentencing ranged from approximately one-third to more than half arrested and about 10 percent imprisoned. Prior convictions, type of offense, age, race, the Greenwood prediction device, use of heroin, and employment were statistically significant correlates of recidivism. The major conclusion is that probation is an acceptable sentencing alternative for some felony offenders in some states but that recidivism rates can be alarmingly high for particular categories of offenders. In addition, probation officials should devote some attention to the needs of probationers in such problem areas as employment and drug abuse.     

POLICE REPORTS AND VICTIMIZATION SURVEY RESULTS An Empirical Study

To test the assumption that police reports cannot be used as a representative sample of all criminal events, a research study was undertaken comparing the characteristics of robberies and robbery victims derived from police offense reports in San Jose, California, to those derived from a victimization survey in the same area The result of the comparison of these two data sources disclosed that: (1) for commercial robberies there were no differences between police offense reports and victimization survey data for the characteristics which were compared; (2) for personal robberies, there were no differences for the characteristics of victim's sex and age, number of victims, victim/offender relationship, and number of offenders. The differences observed for victim's race and time of occurrence can be attributed to classification problems and methodological differences It is highly probable that the police robbery offense reports and the Victimization survey data are representative of the same population of robberies Results suggest that further evaluation of the assumption that police offense reports do not reflect the “true” nature of all (i.e., reported and unreported) crime is warranted.     

Felony probation: A re-examination of public risk

The California Rand study focused major attention on the potential threat that felons on probation presented to the public. Their findings of a 65% rearrest rate during a 40-month follow-up of 1672 felons raised considerable concern but left one key question unanswered: are those disturbing results unique to California or are they representative of a nationwide crisis generated by the critical prison overcrowding problem? The authors of the present study replicated the Rand report for the State of Missouri in an attempt to answer those questions. A total of 2083 felons from the most urban population of Missouri were tracked for the same 40-month period utilized by Rand, with very different results. The Missouri rearrest rates were found to be a respectable 22%. The obvious conclusion is that felony probation is an effective alternate to prison in Missouri, and the Rand study may not be representative of felony probation in general.     

Race,crime type and imprisonment

This paper largely replicates, within the state of North Carolina, Blumstein's (1982) national study of the effects of arrests on the racial disproportionality of the prison population. In agreement with the previous study, these data indicate that the racial difference between rates of arrest and imprisonment varies with the type of offense. The level of arrests failed to account for a sizeable amount of the racial differentials in imprisonment for drug offenses, forgery and driving under the influence. An unexpected finding is a lower than expected (by arrests) rate of black imprisonment for rape and robbery.     

Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates

This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.     

Predicting Outcomes with Juvenile Court Case Histories

This report supplements a prior article in this journal (Rogers and Williams, 1994). Utilizing Ted Palmer's 1991 formulation, we identified a set of indicators relevant to juvenile court decision-making and to policy formulation. Here, through a more stringent statistical technique, we provide additional evidence of the potential that juvenile court histories possess for both theory and practice. We explore case materials gained and maintained by juvenile probation officers as a way of generating outcome predictors for whether youth receive probation or institutionalization. Using discriminant function analysis, we obtain relatively good prediction. Delinquency history and social psychological variables are found to enhance prediction of case outcomes. Contrary to some scholars, we believe the juvenile court is here to stay. Thus, the fundamental issue becomes one of making it a more efficient, effective instrument for reintegrating youths it must serve. As this institution approaches its centennial in 1999, we believe the court must become a focal point of research. This article is intended to further that task. After identifying the three strongest predictive variables (offense after first hearing, alienation, and denial of blame), we employ our seven key indicators as a guide for illustrating their everyday application for juvenile probation officers working with their youthful clientele.     

Illegal entrepreneurs: a comparative study of the liquor trade in Stockholm and New Orleans 1920–1940

The 1920s were a golden period for smuggling in Nordic waters, as systems of prohibition were established in Finland, Norway and Iceland, while in Sweden an intricate system of rationing was implemented in 1917. A comparative study of the illegal liquor trade in Stockholm and New Orleans shows that the actual methods of smuggling were similar in the two cities. Mother ships brought the cargo to a point outside territorial waters, where it was shifted to smaller boats. These brought the liquor in through the archipelago of Stockholm or the bayous of the Mississippi delta. The relative lack of corruption in Sweden did not limit the extent of the black market. According to contemporary estimates, the amount of smuggled liquor was about the same in the two cities. The kind of alcohol that was brought in was different, however, and the value of the trade higher in New Orleans. Also, the organization of the trade differed, in terms of ownership and distribution. In neither city did the illegal entrepreneurs appear to be very violent. The fact that the rate of violence was much higher in New Orleans, than in Stockholm, did not seem to affect their business methods.     

RESIDENTIAL CHANGE AS A TURNING POINT IN THE LIFE COURSE OF CRIME: DESISTANCE OR TEMPORARY CESSATION?*

Many former prisoners return home to the same residential environment, with the same criminal opportunities and criminal peers, where they resided before incarceration. If the path to desistance from crime largely requires knifing off from past situations and establishing a new set of routine activities, then returning to one's old environment and routines may drastically limit an ex‐prisoner's already dismal chances of desisting from crime. This study tests these ideas by examining how forced residential migration caused by Hurricane Katrina affected the likelihood of reincarceration among a sample of ex‐prisoners originally from New Orleans, LA. Property damage from the hurricane induced some ex‐prisoners who otherwise would have moved back to their former neighborhoods to move to new neighborhoods. Findings from an instrumental variables survival analysis reveal that those parolees who moved to a new parish following release were substantially less likely to be reincarcerated during the first 3 years after release than those ex‐offenders who moved back to the parish where they were originally convicted. Moreover, at no point in the 3‐year time period was the hazard of reincarceration greater for those parolees who moved than for those who returned to the same parish.     

Effect of broken windows enforcement on clearance rates

Originating in the New York City Transit System, “broken windows” enforcement has become a widely implemented policing strategy. Research testing the effectiveness of focused enforcement upon minor offenses and “uncivil” behaviors, however, has been inconclusive. There has been no study which has addressed broken windows enforcement as an explanatory factor for clearance rates. Most previous research on clearance rates were completed more than two decades ago, well before the implementation of structured broken windows enforcement. Utilizing official crime data for the thirty-five largest municipal police agencies in Texas from 1990 through 2004, this research examined the relationship between broken windows enforcement and clearance rates for UCR Part I offenses. Using hierarchical multivariate linear modeling (HMLM) analysis to capitalize upon the longitudinal characteristics of the data allowed examination of the influence of broken windows enforcement across a wide spectrum of agencies over a long time period.Broken windows enforcement showed inconsistent results across the different crime types. Broken windows enforcement had a positive impact on the clearance rates for burglaries and a marginal impact on auto theft clearance rates. In the case of larceny clearance, greater levels of broken windows arrests actually had a negative relationship. For all of the offense categories, the number of sworn officers was negatively related to the clearance rates. Crime per officer measures showed negative significant effect on the clearance rates for the property offense categories.     

SELECTIVE INCAPACITATION AND THE PROBLEM OF PREDICTION*

Recent innovations in sentencing policy across the United States reveal a renewed interest in the idea of selective incapacitation of criminal offenders. This is perhaps most evident in the proliferation of “Three Strikes and You're Out” habitual-offender statutes across the nation. Although the term was first introduced by David Greenberg in 1975, Peter Greenwood and Allan Abrahamse's eponymous 1982 Rand report represents the most fully articulated plan for implementing such a strategy. The report's release stimulated much discussion, because of the AUTHOR'S claims that selective incapacitation could simultaneously reduce crime rates and prison populations. Ethical problems inherent in such proposals as well as methodological inconsistencies in the original research warrant a reexamination of the proposal and of the empirical basis for the conclusions offered therein. Greenwood and Abrahamse's original research is replicated with a representative sample of California state prison inmates (N = 2, 188) in light of these limitations, with specific focus on the methodological issues concerning the construction of the predictive scale. The selective incapacitation scheme advocated by Greenwood and Abrahamse performs extremely poorly in terms of both reliability and validity, thus precluding the implementation of such schemes. The article contains a discussion of other, more ethically acceptable uses of an instrument that identifies “high-rate” or “dangerous” offenders. In conclusion, some observations on the limitations of incarceration-based strategies of crime control are offered.     

PROBATION AND PAROLE: PUBLIC RISK AND THE FUTURE OF INCARCERATION ALTERNATIVES*

Jail and prison populations in the United States have continued to grow unabated during the past two decades but crime rates have not declined. Partly in response to the pressures caused by burgeoning correctional populations, the use of alternatives to incarceration has expanded. An ongoing debate centers on the effectiveness of these alternatives. Many criminal justice professionals and some researchers question whether such alternatives seriously restrict the criminal justice system 's ability to incapacitate the active offender. This study deals specifically with two alternatives to incarceration: probation and parole. We examine offender recidivism for a sample of probationers and parolees active in New Orleans, Louisiana, and offer a new approach to addressing the effectiveness issue. Past research has evaluated the effectiveness of alternatives by examining failure rates of diverted offenders. High failure rates, we argue, do not necessarily imply a significant loss of the incapacitative effects of imprisonment. We suggest that a more appropriate measure of the loss of incapacitative effect is the proportion of all offenses committed by persons on probation or parole. Our results suggest that such losses are surprisingly low. The policy implications of our findings are discussed.     

Sentencing Female Misdemeanants: An Examination of the Direct and Indirect Effects of Race/Ethnicity

Little is known about the predictors of sentencing for the typical female offender—one who commits a misdemeanor or lesser offense. Moreover, although ample discussions of racial/ethnic disparity in sentencing may be found in the extant literature, most researchers have focused on what happens to males who commit felonies. Thus, to help fill a void I examine the likelihood of receiving a jail sentence among a sample of cases for female misdemeanants. All were convicted in New York City's Criminal Court. I account for direct and indirect effects by estimating a causal model that predicts the sentencing outcome. Race/ethnicity did not directly affect sentencing. Indirect effects, however, were found. Black and Hispanic females were more likely to receive jail sentences than their White counterparts due to differences in socio‐economic status, community ties, prior record, earlier case processing, and charge severity.     

票据犯罪若干问题研究

票据犯罪主体因罪而异 ,有的票据犯罪一般个人主体、一般单位主体不能实施 ,只有特殊个人主体、特殊单位主体才能实施。有的票据犯罪主体必须具有票据当事人身份 ,非票据当事人不能成为该项犯罪主体。票据犯罪罪过形式是故意和过失 ,模糊罪过和混合罪过的观点并不适用刑法所要求的票据犯罪。银行结算凭证虽然不是票据 ,但是应该归属票据犯罪对象范畴。我国刑法应当承认票据无形伪造。     

Homelessness and the mentally ill offender.

This paper presents the results of a retrospective analysis of the discharge summaries of 69 mentally ill offenders. The subjects were patients in a New York State Psychiatric Hospital for a two-year period between January 1988 and December 1989 who were referred by the courts under New York State Criminal Procedure Law (CPL). The subjects were further compared as to homelessness at the time of the instant offense to study the association of this variable and criminal behavior among the mentally ill. Statistical analyses demonstrated significant relationships between variables of homelessness, prior offense history, and substance abuse.     

The Use of Citizen Review Boards with Juvenile Offender Cases: An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of a Pilot Program

This study evaluates a Citizen Review Board (CRB) program designed to review juvenile offender cases. The sample includes 157 juvenile offenders that were first‐time adjudicated offenders. The youth were randomly assigned by the juvenile judge either to receive review by the CRB or go through the regular court process. Sixty‐eight of the youth were reviewed by the CRB and 89 made up the control group. Data were collected on both groups for more than three years. Program outcomes examined for the study included court processing time, placement and treatment facility changes, and re‐offense rates. Findings suggest that the youth served by the CRB program had statistically fewer out‐of‐home placements in treatment programs during the course of the study and more time had elapsed between the date of the original offense and the re‐offense for youth reviewed by the CRB. The rise in the number of juvenile offenders going through the nation's court systems, as well as a rise in the number of citizen review boards, indicate a need for further examination about how CRBs can best serve the juvenile court system and the youth served by that system.