也门安全形势严峻的原因及趋势

21309年12月25日，美国境内发生圣诞节“炸机未遂事件”，“阿拉伯半岛基地组织”宣称对此负责。该组织扬言将对西方发起更多袭击，把异教徒赶出阿拉伯半岛，弱化和摧毁也门萨利赫政府，在也门建立“基地”组织安全基地，袭击美国和沙特等国家。今年1月19日，联合国制裁委员会把“阿拉伯半岛基地组织”列入国际恐怖组织黑名单。美国和也门政府加强了反恐力度，全球最贫穷落后的国家之一——也门成为反恐热点，引起国际社会的普遍关注。     

也门恐怖乱象解读

也门向来是基地组织等伊斯兰极端、恐怖势力活动的天堂。9.11后,美国与也门联手打击也门境内的基地组织,一度使这里的极端恐怖活动步入低谷。但受也门国内政治社会动荡、经济崩溃以及基地组织加强渗透等因素的影响,2006年以来也门境内的恐怖分子再掀新的恐怖浪潮。2009年12月25日,受训于也门基地组织的穆塔拉布更是制造了炸机未遂案,再次引发世人对也门的关注。     

也门的恐怖主义与政治动荡北大核心CSSCISSCI

2015年初以来,也门局势动荡急剧升级。2月6日,也门胡塞武装组织宣布成立总统委员会和全国过渡委员会;3月26日,应也门总统哈迪求助,沙特等国对胡塞武装展开越境军事打击。也门国内恐怖主义势力日益猖獗,并乘政局动荡之机兴风作浪。恐怖主义与也门国内恶劣的经济社会环境和长期动荡的政治局势相互作用,产生联动效应。也门国内外有关方面不断加强对也门恐怖主义问题的管控,主要采取了经济援助、政治调停、军事反恐三种手段。也门政治稳定短期内难以恢复,如何优化管控措施、遏制恐怖主义将是今后相当长时期内应对也门问题时需要努力破解的一大难题。     

“基地”组织阿拉伯半岛分支

2011年西亚北非地区剧变以来,中东地区许多阿拉伯国家陷入政局动荡的状态.这种动荡状态不仅导致这些国家政权的更迭,国内经济发展和社会秩序的失序,而且为中东恐怖主义兴起和发展提供了温床,使中东恐怖活动再度掀起新一轮高潮.其中,也门最具代表性.自2011年初起,因受突尼斯、埃及政局剧变影响,也门发生反政府示威,示威者要求萨利赫总统下台.随后,也门陷入内战不断、乱象丛生的境地.2011年11月,根据海湾合作委会(简称海合会)协议,萨利赫将总统权限移交给副总统哈迪,被迫下台.不久,胡塞武装崛起并试图夺权、恐怖活动频仍、部落势力的壮大等为包括“基地”组织阿拉伯半岛分支(al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula,简称AQAP)在内的恐怖势力的渗透和坐大提供了机遇.2011年5月28日,AQAP利用也门政府和胡塞武装的争战无暇旁顾之机,占领了也门南部阿比扬省省会津吉巴尔市,并将该市作为其在也门南部建立的“伊斯兰酋长国”的首都,①这标志着也门恐怖活动达到一个新高潮,从而引起了国际社会的广泛关注.     

也门局势持续恶化

今年1月中旬以来,也门各地爆发反政府示威游行,要求总统萨利赫下台。由于萨利赫三食其言,海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（简称海合会）调解也门政治危机的努力最终失败。5月23日,也门最大部落——“哈希德”部落武装与也门政府军发生激烈交火,造成数百人伤亡。5月28日,双方达成临时停火协议,但不久冲突再起。6月3日,也门总统府遭炮击,萨利赫受伤前往沙特首都利雅得治疗。     

也门部落暴力问题初探

由于政治、经济和文化等原因引起的也门部落暴力事件非常普遍,已成为突出的社会问题,不仅扰乱社会治安,影响社会稳定,而且阻碍也门的对外开放和经济社会发展.部落暴力是也门由来已久的一种部落现象,贫困、政治因素、社会矛盾、部落保护习俗,以及武器泛滥等是引发部落暴力的重要原因.解决也门部落暴力问题的根本途径在于促进社会发展和摆脱贫困;建立合法的政治参与渠道和法律途径、促进传统同现代制度的协调;同时加大打击恐怖主义和控制武器泛滥的力度.     

沙特、也门边界冲突的原因及前景

沙特、也门边界冲突的原因及前景程星原，陈双庆去年年底和今年年初以来，也门、沙特两国军队在两国有争议的边境地区屡次交火，造成人员伤亡。随后两国在各自边境附近集结兵力，调遣重武器，使该地区紧张局势骤然升级，形成阿拉伯地区的又一热点。本文就沙特、也门边界冲...     

中也经贸发展回顾与展望

也门进出口贸易情况 也门是世界上最不发达国家之一.在1990年5月南北也门实现统一后的前几年,每年进出口贸易总额一般只有几亿美元,此间的贸易虽逐年增长,但一直处于逆差状态.     

基地组织当前“建国”活动及其走向

国际社会正在认真审视当前基地组织渐进式开展的＂建国＂活动。该组织现阶段的＂国家观＂深植于伊斯兰教的原始教义,并在当代国际关系现实的基础上有所调整。基地组织的＂建国＂实践最先出现在也门和伊拉克—叙利亚交界地区并非偶然,与这些国家或所处地区长期的内战或政治冲突极有关联。美国中东战略的失衡与自相矛盾,为基地组织的壮大乃至＂建国＂起到了＂保驾护航＂的作用。＂建国＂活动也在组织、战术与思想等层面给基地组织造成了诸多难以化解的矛盾。     

也门乱局中的部落因素探析

也门北部毗邻沙特阿拉伯,东部与阿曼接壤,南邻亚丁湾,西部滨临红海,与非洲隔海相望,自古就是战略要地.2010年底,突尼斯爆发的“茉莉花革命”在中东地区引起连锁发应,造成中东地区秩序大动荡.一些中东国家纷纷出现政治危机,突尼斯、利比亚、埃及和也门相继发生政权更替,国内秩序混乱.2011年11月也门前总统萨利赫下野后,国内出现暂时性权力真空,中央政府权力式微,胡塞武装组织不断壮大,“基地”组织阿拉伯半岛分支(al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula,简称AQAP)活动频繁以及外部势力干涉,使也门陷入错综复杂的乱局之中.     

论中印缅孟地区经济合作的发展与和平共处五项原则

一、引言中印缅孟地区是指中国、印度、缅甸、孟加拉国4个国家相互接壤和毗邻的地区 ,其地域主要包括中国的云南省 ,印度东部的比哈尔邦、西孟加拉国邦和整个东北部地区 ,缅甸全境和孟加拉国全境。该地区是世界上最贫困的地区之一 ,但它连接着东亚、东南亚、南亚三大区域 ,以及处于太平洋地区与印度洋地区的中间地带 ,这一特殊的区位优势为该地区开展区域经济合作创造了良好的条件。和平共处五项原则是1953年12月中国政府在同印度就两国在中国西藏地方的关系问题的谈判中首次提出 ,1954年中国政府同印度政府和缅甸政府分别发表联合声明 ,确…     

东南亚反恐难点和走向及云南国际大通道建设的对策

东南亚地区的恐怖袭击活动在最近几年异常活跃 ,恐怖爆炸与袭击此起彼伏 ,形势令人担忧。很显然 ,东南亚已经变成了恐怖分子活动的重灾区之一。日益猖獗的恐怖活动给东南亚地区的安全、稳定与发展造成了极大的威胁。在今后相当一段时间内本地区很可能仍是反恐的主要场所 ①,成为“反恐的第二阵线”(布什语)。伊斯兰教作为东南亚地区的一种外来宗教 ,其传入后大量地融入了当地的本土文化因素 ,因此一般认为东南亚的伊斯兰教是比较温和的。但是巴厘岛爆炸案等事件却使人们开始关注东南亚伊斯兰教极端主义势力。这里恐怖主义网络异常活跃 ,各种…     

软实力与印度的崛起

印度是一个软实力资源非常丰富的国家. 其博大精深的文化、稳定的民主制、有声有色的全球外交以及人数众多且成就突出的海外印度人都是印度比较突出的软实力,对印度的崛起产生了积极的影响.但另一方面,印度的软实力还存在着许多不足之处.其文化中的一些弊端和陋习,民主制中的一些缺陷以及地区外交政策的效果不佳,又会在一定程度上制约甚至阻碍印度的崛起.印度只有克服这些缺陷,才能做到真正崛起.     

东盟区域反恐合作机制的演变与发展

随着恐怖主义活动的多样化以及国际网络化,反恐一直是东盟地区安全问题的重要主题,东盟不断发展和完善的合作机制对在该地区打击恐怖主义、维护地区安全与稳定方面起到了重要的作用。该地区打击恐怖主义的行动已从"单独行动"或者"双边合作"转变到"区域合作"之中,形成了以东盟为主导的系统的地区合作机制。     

Defining international terrorism: A pragmatic approach

One of the fundamental problems in addressing the phenomenon of international terrorism is that despite a plethora of scholarly work and more than thirty years of inter‐governmental discourse there is still no commonly accepted definition of international terrorism. Existing definitions tend to fall into two broad categories academic and political. Contemporary academic definitions of international terrorism are primarily designed to fit incidents into various statistical models. They are often lengthy, over‐complicated and defy common usage. Governmental definitions of international terrorism tend to be ambiguous to allow the most politically convenient interpretation of events. This paper takes a pragmatic look at the ongoing definitional dilemma in the study of international terrorism. Drawing upon both sides of the definitional spectrum, it charts a middle course arguing for a more lucid and functional definition of terrorism based on primary characteristics which distinguish international terrorism from other types of violence.     

“New Terrorism” = Higher Brutality? An Empirical Test of the “Brutalization Thesis”

This article focuses on the so-called “brutalization” of terrorism. The brutalization thesis as part of the larger theoretical concept of “new terrorism” argues that “new terrorism” is more brutal than “old terrorism.” Many scholars claim that the 9/11 attacks mark the beginning of a new era of terrorism that has lifted international as well as domestic terrorism to a new level of violent brutality. Others argue that this process had already started in the early 1990s. After discussing possible ways to operationalize a brutalization of terrorism, for example focusing on suicide bombings or terrorist attacks against soft targets, this article tests the empirical credibility of the brutalization thesis regarding both potential starting points. Data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) shows that only three out of nine indicators increased significantly during the 1990s, partially backing the idea of a general brutalization, whereas increasing numbers of suicide attacks and beheadings after 9/11 support the notion of a qualitative change in terrorism and its brutality connected with the idea of maximizing media and public attention. Yet, these developments are regionally limited and the brutality of this “new terrorism” exceeds the levels known from the zenith of “old terrorism” in the 1970s and 1980s in only a few cases.     

新时期东南亚地区反恐斗争的难点及走势

"9·11"事件已过去近10年,其间世界各地的恐怖事件不断,东南亚地区也不例外,这对东南亚地区的安全、稳定与发展造成了极大的威胁。面对恐怖主义的威胁,东南亚各国政府日渐认识到合作反恐的重要性。     

International terrorism? Indian popular cinema and the politics of terror

The first decade of the twenty-first century has been marked by the decisive entry into our media landscape of the so-called global war on terror, with countless films and TV series from all over the world addressing the issue of international terrorism. Even Indian popular cinema, which has been addressing the issue of domestic terrorism since the late 1980s with films such as Roja (Ratnam, 1992), Drohkaal (Nihalani, 1994), Maachis (Gulzar, 1996), has, since the new millennium, begun to tackle the topic of international terrorism. In this article, I will analyse the shift in the construction of the terrorist discourse in Indian popular cinema from a domestic to an international perspective in order to highlight the close proximity between the two, as in fact, the “global war on terror” narrative seems to offer Indian filmmakers the possibility to simultaneously address international and domestic terrorism. In particular, I will refer to Karan Johar’s film My Name Is Khan as a text which, while discussing the consequences of the American war on terror on its minorities, problematises the official discourse on terrorism and its neo-Orientalist character. It also draws a parallel between the situation of minorities in the United States and India. In so doing, the film triggers a reflection on the state of the Indian nation and questions the state of the secularist values of newly independent India after decades of communal violence.     

Urban Irregular Warfare and Violence Against Civilians: Evidence From a Colombian City

Defining terrorism and explaining how it occurs remains a contentious issue. This article attempts to generate new understandings on these topics by applying the work of Ehud Sprinzak's delegitimatization model to the Sea Shepherds. Evidence presented in the article suggests that the Sea Shepherd's present level of political violence passed through gradual phases. In this respect, it is possible to suggest that Sprinzak's model has applicability for maritime organizations, as well as terrestrial based groups. However, we also note that on the one hand, it may be possible to argue that in some respects the Sea Shepherds may constitute either a “blind spot” in the literature on terrorism and political violence, because its actions could in some circumstances be considered activism, militant direct action, piracy, vigilantism, terrorism, or eco-defense, which makes it very difficult to classify. On the other hand, that both the Sea Shepherds and the whalers may both engage in illegal activities, but are not prosecuted, may indicate that states and the international community may have neither the will nor the means to enforce laws against them. Therefore, they may be turning a blind eye to their actions. Throughout the article we maintain that the Sea Shepherds constitute an example of a gray area phenomenon. Despite the ambiguity surrounding their legal status and academic interpretations of their actions, the results of nearly three decades of the organization's activities, including its 2007 campaign to disrupt Japanese Antarctic Whaling, suggest that the Sea Shepherds may be best categorized as a vigilante group, because they claim they are seeking to enforce a legal status quo because of states' and the international community's inabilities or unwillingness to do so.     

Economic Sanctions,Poverty, and International Terrorism: An Empirical Analysis

This study examines the impact of economic sanctions on international terrorism. It is argued that sanctions intensify economic hardships on the poor within countries and this increases their level of grievance and makes them more likely to support or engage in international terrorism. Further, economic sanctions are conceptualized as creating an opportunity for rogue leaders to manipulate aggrieved poor people to terrorize foreign entities who are demonized as engaging in a foreign encroachment on the sanctioned nation's sovereignty. A cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 152 countries for the past three decades provides evidence that ceteris paribus, economic sanctions are positively associated with international terrorism. This finding suggests that, although the main purpose of economic sanctions is to coerce rogue countries to conform to international norms and laws, they can unintentionally produce a negative ramification and become a cause of international terrorism.