论吉林村镇银行可持续发展问题

制约当前村镇银行可持续发展的最大障碍是慈善思维方式——农民因为贫穷需要廉价资金。村镇银行发放小额农户贷款被认为是扶贫的手段。村镇银行采取商业化方式,实施高利率小额农户信贷与支持、帮助农村中的贫困群体并不矛盾。完善小额农户贷款还需要信贷员激励机制。村镇银行需要政府扶助,但又要避免地方政府的过度干预,避免政府信用担保的道德风险,这样才能实现可持续发展。     

Financial sustainability in savings and credit programmes

This article provides a framework for determining, justifying, and improving financial sustainability of savings and credit programs. Credit programs have income from interest and fees. Income must pay for the cost of funds, loan write-offs, operating costs, and inflation. Reference is made to Otero and Rhyne's four levels of self-sufficiency in credit programs. The Grameen Bank is an example of Level 3 and most credit unions are level 4. Nongovernmental groups in the United Kingdom are level 1 or 2. Experience has shown that removal of subsidies did not affect the quality of services or shift benefits away from the poor. Success in serving poorer people better is attributed 1) to more money being available for lending under tighter management practices, 2) to greater openness to a variety of clients from removal of subsidy restrictions, 3) to a shift to higher interest rates that eliminate richer borrowers, and 4) to a shift to serious collection of loans which is a disincentive to more privileged borrowers. Percentages of loan loss, administration costs, cost of funds, and inflation are useful in measuring the sustainability of credit programs. Interest and fee income must also be measured. Fee repayment rates do not have a common definition of arrears, default, and write-off. A simple measure is the percentage of total costs covered by income. The World Bank recommends the Subsidy Dependence Index. Women tend to be better at repaying loans. Loan size should be related to borrowers' ability to handle the amount of the loan. Low and subsidized interest rates deter depositors and attract richer borrowers. Poorer borrowers are attracted by access to credit and not the cost of credit. Interest rates should be based on market rates. The loan payment should be no longer than necessary. Small groups of borrowers can guarantee each others loans. Group-based loan schemes work best. NGOs must project an image of being serious about loan collections and must take action immediately when a payment is missed. Good repayers should be rewarded with quick repeat loans.     

The Road to Pergau Dam: Aid Policy,Ideology, and the Thatcher Government

This analysis charts the changes in British aid policy under the Margaret Thatcher government (1979–1990). In particular, it examines the impact of so-called neo-liberal ideology in overseas development strategy in an era where “structural adjustment”—aid in return for market-based reforms—became World Bank and International Monetary Fund orthodoxy. There is some evidence to show British increases in multilateral aid during the 1980s supported a neo-liberal aid policy. Bilateral aid policy, however, demonstrated a subordination of aid to foreign policy and a pro-business—not ideologically pro-market or neo-liberal—alignment. One of the results of these structural changes was the Pergau Dam scandal at the end of the Thatcher years.     

Crossing the threshold: A positive analysis of IBRD graduation policy

According to World Bank policy, countries remain eligible to borrow from the IBRD until they are able to sustain long-term development without further recourse to Bank financing. Graduation from IBRD is not an automatic consequence of reaching a particular income level, but rather is supposed to be based on a determination of whether the country has reached a level of institutional development and capital-market access that enables it to sustain its own development process without recourse to Bank funding. This paper takes a positive approach to IBRD graduation policy, investigating what income and non-income factors appear to have influenced graduation status in recent decades, based on panel data for 1982 through 2009. Explanatory variables include the per-capita income of the country, as well as measures of institutional development and market access that are cited as criteria by the graduation policy, and other plausible explanatory variables that capture the levels of economic development and vulnerability of the country. We find that the observed correlates of Bank graduation status are generally consistent with the stated policy. Countries that are wealthier, more creditworthy, more institutionally developed, and are less vulnerable to trade, financial, and other shocks are more likely to be graduates. Predicted probabilities generated by the model conform closely to the actual graduation and de-graduation experiences of Trinidad and Tobago and Korea, among other countries, and suggest that Hungary and Latvia may have graduated prematurely—a prediction subsequently borne out by the large loans that they later received from the IBRD in the wake of the global financial crisis.     

Informal influence in the Asian Development Bank

Through case studies and empirical analysis, scholars have uncovered convincing evidence that individual donors influence lending decisions of international financial institutions (IFIs) such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Less clear are the mechanisms by which donors exert influence. Potential mechanisms are either formal or informal. Formal influence is through official decisions of the board of executive directors while informal influence covers all other channels. This paper explores the role of informal influence at the Asian Development Bank by examining the flow of funds after loans are approved. Controlling for commitments (loan approvals), are subsequent disbursements linked to the interests of the key shareholders, Japan and the U.S.? I compare these findings with results for the World Bank and consider implications for institutional reforms.     

Political Trust,Corruption, and Ratings of the IMF and the World Bank

There are only a handful of studies that examine public support for the IMF and World Bank. Public opinion data on attitudes to the economy feature prominently in these studies. Utilizing data from the Afrobarometer survey, we find that evaluations of the economy, ideology, and a range of sociodemographic factors including age, gender, employment status, health, education, and living conditions are not significantly related to ratings of effectiveness. Rather, we find that political trust and corruption—two very important concepts in the wider literature on individual-level attitudes toward international relations and foreign policy issues—are strongly associated with ratings of effectiveness.     

Does government ideology influence political alignment with the U.S.? An empirical analysis of voting in the UN General Assembly

This paper examines whether government ideology has influenced political alignment with the U.S. in voting in the UN General Assembly. I analyze a dataset of UN General Assembly voting behavior of 21 OECD countries over the 1984–2005 period employing two alternative indices of government ideology. The results suggest that government ideology has had a strong influence on voting alignment with the U.S.: leftwing governments were less sympathetic to US positions. The ideology-induced effect was stronger when the US President was a Republican. This finding contrasts with the declining electoral cohesion in OECD countries. The distinctly different alignments of leftist and rightwing governments with the U.S. reflect deeper sources of ideological association than would be predicted if the issues were solely those of economic policy on a left–right spectrum.     

From Swagger to Self-Advocacy: India’s Postgraduate “Transition” in the World Bank

The International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank's facility for low-income countries, has granted India an unprecedented exception to its usual “graduation” policy—extending transitional support to its largest borrower, even though it has crossed the normal eligibility cutoff for IDA’s soft loans (based on per capita income). Before 2012, some Indian officials had called for a “graceful graduation,” believing that India did not need concessionary development assistance any longer. But with IDA graduation imminent in 2013 and facing a limit on borrowing from the Bank’s other window for middle-income countries, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, India successfully appealed for continued IDA access. This article draws on official interviews and documents to show how India secured post-graduation transitional support from IDA—suggesting that while India’s leaders seek to present their country as a rising power with influence in multilateral institutions, they can also be pragmatic in their status demands and quietly persuasive in their economic diplomacy.     

Donor influence in multilateral development banks: The case of the Asian Development Bank

This paper explores the influence of Japan and the United States over the geographic distribution of Asian Development Bank funds. Estimation using panel data for less developed Asian countries from 1968 to 2002 suggests significant donor influence with inconsistent weight placed on humanitarian criteria given limited funding for the region's largest countries, China and India. Comparing the results with research on World Bank loan allocation suggests donor interests are relatively more important in the ADB. This finding justifies the existence of the ADB on political grounds but calls into question its relative merits on economic grounds. JEL codes F35 · O19     

Making Room at the Negotiating Table: The Growth of Diplomacy between Nation-State Governments and Non-State Economic Entities

The study of diplomacy has traditionally focused on relationships and interactions between the governments of nation-states, empires, principalities, and similar politicies. This state-centric view has been challenged in recent times by scholars who have sought to take into account the proliferation of different types of actors in the international arena. This paper address diplomacy between governments and non-state economic entities, a broad category of bodies extending from multilateral economic institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and GATT/World Trade Organization to consultative and knowledge-generating bodies such as the World Economic Forum and International Chamber of Commerce.     

The policy-making dimension of post-conflict governance: the experience of Aceh,Indonesia

Rebuilding and strengthening the essential functions of government is a critical aspect of peace-building and recovery after conflict. There is now a wide literature on the challenges of post-conflict state-building based on the international community's experiences in such places as Kosovo, East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan. Much of this literature is concerned with the challenges of strengthening administration and service provision—what might be loosely called the policy implementation functions of government. Much less attention has been given to the policy formulation capacities of post-conflict governments. This is surprising given the importance of conflict-sensitive policies for peace-building and for laying the foundations for economic growth and employment. Many post-conflict governments lack capacity for policy development—a gap that is often filled by international technical assistance. In cases where the international community is providing support to a reasonably functioning government after a conflict, this study argues that more attention needs to be given to the government's policy-making capacity. Using the experience of post-conflict Aceh as a prism, the study argues that technical advice can be too easily wasted unless there is concomitant support for developing the institutional infrastructure needed to manage advice and to prepare options for political deliberation and choice.     

Financing the peace: Evaluating World Bank post-conflict assistance programs

Does World Bank aid to countries damaged by civil conflict meet its stated goals of speeding economic recovery and reducing the risk of conflict recidivism? We contend that the Bank’s success depends on its ability to bolster and signal the credibility of politicians’ commitments to peaceful politics and tailor its programs to the post-conflict environment. In the first systematic evaluation of World Bank post-conflict assistance, we estimate selection-corrected event history models of the effect of Bank programs on recovery and recurrence using an original dataset of all World Bank programs in post-conflict environments. Among key results, we find that the Bank tends to select aid recipients according to their pre-existing probability of conflict recurrence and that, once we control for this non-random selection, the Bank has no systematic effect on either conflict recurrence or economic recovery.     

Public support for the international economic organizations: Evidence from developing countries

Public opinions regarding the international economic organizations (IEOs; the IMF, World Bank, and WTO) are understudied. I contrast five lines of argument using a multi-country survey of developing countries, focusing on evaluations of the economy, skills, gender, and ideology and measures of involvement with the organizations themselves. At the individual level, respondents have negative views if they have negative views of the state of the economy. More educated respondents are more likely to have negative views of the IEOs. Women are more likely to have positive views of the IEOs than men. National levels of engagement with the IEOs also affect public evaluations of them. Evaluations of the state of the economy are more influential determinants of IEO evaluations in states that receive IMF and World Bank loans, as well as in states that are active in WTO dispute resolution.

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The effects of IMF programs on U.S. foreign direct investment in the developing world

Given the popular wisdom that the U.S. government influences IMF policies and tends to support the business community, it might be expected that IMF programs benefit U.S. firms abroad and thus borrower nations are attractive destinations for U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI). Surprisingly, no study has tested the impact of IMF loans on U.S. FDI. Controlling for common explanations in the literature, we use a treatment effects model and interviews with IMF staff researchers to investigate whether countries under different kinds of IMF programs receive more U.S. FDI than countries not under IMF arrangements. Using panel data for 126 developing countries from 1980 to 2003, we find that IMF borrowers tend to be more attractive to U.S. investors but not all IMF programs have the same effect. Our findings suggest that differences in loan duration, the extent of borrower input in policy decisions, and loan amounts affect borrowers’ leverage with the Fund and the U.S.     

Endogenizing Labor Mobility: A Partisan Politics Explanation

Much of the existing literature shows that factor mobility across industries has important political economic implications but that it is exogenous to the political process. This article argues that labor’s mobility across industries can be endogenous to changes of power relations due to partisan reasons. Based on a general equilibrium model, the prediction is that, when unions are decentralized, governments led by left-wing parties seek and obtain higher labor mobility than do governments led by rightist parties. However, as unions become more centralized, this distinction becomes less clear-cut. Time series cross-sectional analyses of OECD countries from 1960 to 1999 support this prediction and the endogenous labor mobility hypothesis.     

Economic Competitiveness and Social Policy in Open Economies

While many studies have shown that greater trade openness affects the overall size of social spending, this study emphasizes that it also affects types of social policies that a government prioritizes. When faced with deepening trade competition, governments tend to use different policy measures to address the opportunities and challenges stemming from their economic competitiveness in the international market. Policy makers in countries with high relative labor costs are likely to privilege social insurances and income transfer. This is because as high labor costs make their workers more vulnerable in the trade competition, governments seek to protect skilled labor in order to maintain their economic advantage in advanced industries. In contrast, when relative labor costs are low, human capital investment programs are likely to be emphasized to enhance productivity and the quality of labor to capitalize the cost competitiveness of a country’s workers. The findings from empirical analyzes of 26 OECD economies from 1991 to 2012 support these arguments.     

Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers and the rhetoric of participation

The World Bank and IMF have proposed the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) framework for all poor countries as a condition of receiving unconditional debt relief under the HIPC Initiative. The PRSPs will also be the key vehicle for the World Bank and IMF and other donors for various assistance packages, including loans. Like its predecessors, the PRSP framework promotes the ideas of ‘participation’ and ‘ownership’. This article argues that ownership of such a grand framework cannot possibly rest with the poor countries or their people if the whole idea is the product of World Bank and IMF think-tanks. It discusses participation in the development of Bangladesh's PRSP and argues that neither participation nor ownership was the target in preparing a national poverty-reduction strategy: they were merely necessary components of a document required for the continuation of debt and lending relationships with the World Bank and IMF.     

Multinational corporations and regional integration: Some preliminary reflections

In 1970, the worldwide affiliates of mutlinational corporations (MNCs), headquartered in Europe and the USA, numbered 27,300. Inevitably, they have had a significant effect on regional integration—economic, social, and political. Economically, production and marketing patterns of MNCs have tended to aid regional integration in developed regions. However, they have had a limited impact in the Third World.

The presence of MNCs in pluralistic societies will probably further social integration by first fostering a regionally oriented elite; this orientation may then spread to the populace at large. In the Third World, however, MNCs may actually widen the elite‐masses gap.

Social integration also has political overtones, as the socialization process will inevitably enhance attitudinal integration. The more MNC facilities in a region, the more will decision‐making powers and activities tend to be transferred from national units to regional institutions (institutional integration), and the more governments within the region will be urged to make joint policies (policy integration). However, nationalistic feelings and fears of dependence will probably impede regional political integration in the Third World.     

Membership no longer has its privileges: The declining informal influence of Board members on IDA lending

This paper examines the ability of Board members of the most important multilateral donor to developing countries, the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank, to influence IDA allocations toward their home countries. I show that a system of Bank staff ratings of individual countries' policies, which has become more important in IDA lending over time, has systematically reduced the informal power of Board members. I show that while IDA Board members received more IDA commitments than their counterparts prior to 1989, this influence has disappeared since, as the importance of the policy index has increased. The findings are robust to the inclusion of fixed effects and a variety of relevant controls. In order to further support my argument, I also investigate the influence of Board membership on the Bank's policy index itself. I am unable to establish any positive relationship between Board membership and the index, either during the Cold War or afterwards. The findings not only shed important light on the internal workings of World Bank allocations to poor countries, but also highlight the ways in which institutional designs can affect the balance of informal power in international institutions.     

Who Can Reform the Labor Market? IMF Conditionality,Partisanship, and Labor Unions

Labor market reforms are critical for economic growth. Yet, they are politically contentious, and governments, more often than not, are faced with strong opposition from interest groups. Scholarly work shows that governments often rely on external intervention to implement politically difficult reforms. This is the case with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that typically conditions its financing on the implementation of required reforms. Do borrowing governments benefit from IMF programs to overcome domestic opposition to reform by organized interests? Utilizing a unique new data set on IMF conditionality, I show that partisan and electoral concerns and domestic alliances strongly affect the implementation of labor market reforms, even when the IMF imposes them. When faced with increasing number of strikes, left-wing governments are more likely to implement labor market reforms than center/right-wing governments. However, the left is less likely than the center/right to fulfill its international commitments during election years when labor groups are militant. These findings highlight the left’s unique ability to form pro-reform coalitions and the IMF’s conditional role in removing domestic political opposition to reform. Counter-intuitively, right-wing governments still struggle to reform the labor market, even during economic crises and under IMF programs.