中美俄:三边关系互动新趋势

中美俄三边关系是当今世界上最重要的三边关系。在共同应对国际金融危机的大目标下,特别是在奥巴马就任美国总统之后,三边关系出现了一些新的转机,其中处于较低水平的美俄关系出现了较大的调整。作为联合国常任理事国的中美俄三国,其相互关系的良性互动必然有利于世界的和平、稳定与发展。因此,不排除未来三国之间建立某种对话与协调机制的可能。     

中美拉三边关系的影响因素及其战略应对

在中美拉三边关系中,美拉关系是传统联系,其对美国高层决策者有强大的刚性作用。中拉关系是新近联系,是目前中美拉三边互动凸显的动力。中美关系则是三边关系整体的核心,决定着三边互动的基本面。未来三边互动的基本态势是,中国和拉美经济的持续发展促使双方进一步加强联系,然而,美国对拉美的霸权思维定势则会导致其对中拉互动产生强烈的不信任感。两者之间会形成一定的紧张关系。中国无需因担心中美关系受影响而不发展中拉关系,同时也不能贸然采取行动引起美国的强烈不安并最终导致中美关系的严重受挫。此外,中美拉三边的良性互动机制也极其必要。这种三边良性互动机制应既包括民间的经济和文化交流,也包含中美拉三边的高层战略对话。     

"9.11"事件以来的中美俄关系

冷战后的中美俄关系在力量对比格局、互动基本内涵等方面都完全不同于冷战时期的中美苏关系."9.11"事件虽然使三国关系发生重要变化,但也没有改变冷战后中美俄关系发展变化的大趋势.三边关系中合作-竞争的内涵更为明显,中国在三边关系中的地位得到进一步改善.     

中美日三角关系及其前景

中美日三角关系的状况和演变，一直是影响亚太地区和平与发展的重要因素之一，对此国际社会高度关注。美日对华政策的调整，正使三边关系发生新的微妙变化，出现了一些有利于中美日合作和良性互动的“亮点”。三国的和谐共处，将为构建一个充满活力的“亚太大家庭”做出重要贡献。     

对21世纪初中美俄新三角关系的几点看法

经过后冷战１０年力量消长的演变，中美俄三方打交道的国际环境和基础在继续发生重大而深刻的新变化。中美俄相互依存和互动仍将对世界和平与稳定产生重大影响。但与过去战略“大三角”显著不同的是，这一新三边关系在可见的将来不大可能成为牵动全局的轴心，正逐渐演变成为一种 “柔性三角”的新三边关系。     

关于美印战略伙伴关系的再思考

冷战结束后,美印关系逐渐从相互疏远的"天然盟友"转型成为全方位合作的"战略伙伴"关系。美印战略伙伴关系开始于克林顿总统任期后期,小布什总统任职期间进一步强化,在奥巴马总统时期得到进一步发展。美印战略伙伴关系具有全方位、战略性、机制化、不平衡、联合制衡中国等特点。美印战略伙伴关系升温的背后有两国共同的利益追求但也存在诸多分歧。随着奥巴马政府"重返亚太"战略的展开,美印战略伙伴关系的发展与互动将对亚太地区安全甚至全球地缘政治格局产生重要影响。中国政府需加强与美、印两国的战略沟通与对话,推动中、美、印三国在亚太地区的良性互动,努力塑造中美、中印新型大国关系。     

“超级第三者”:日本对中美构建新型大国关系的认知

日本是中美新型大国关系的"超级第三者",中美在构建"新型大国关系"中要高度重视日本变量。日本对中美构建"新型大国关系"存在防范与顾忌心理,将之更多解释为中美军事新型大国关系。日本的悲观派认为中美新型大国关系将危及日美同盟和日本对钓鱼岛的占领,但是乐观派认为这将在一定程度上有助于加强日美关系、日俄、日英关系。日本强调发展新的外交智慧,改善中日关系,呼吁中美关注日本第三方立场。构建中美新型大国关系,需要加强中美日三边关系的管理,建立三边对话机制,以实现中美日在亚太地区的良性平衡互动关系。在三边关系中,充分发挥日本"超级第三者"作用,让其成为中美两国沟通的桥梁。     

中美日三边经济关系：新世纪，新变化

进入新世纪头10年，中美日三边经济关系随着中美日三国经济增长和经济实力对比关系的改变而出现了显著变化，即：中国的地位快速提升，而日本的地位明显下降，美国的地位虽有下降但依旧十分重要。分别从中美日三个国家的视角审视三边关系，则主要表现为：中国从倚重日本转变为倚重美国，美国从美日经济摩擦转变为美中摩擦，而日本则从对美依赖转为对华依赖。这种变化将构成新世纪全球经济格局和大国经济关系调整的重要动向。     

论当前中美俄三边关系新特征和新趋舅

国际金融危机以来,中美俄三边关系进入以合作为主的新阶段。在普京重新出任总统后,美俄能否在欧洲反导问题上形成共识,将成为影响美俄关系发展的重要因素。未来,中美俄三边关系将会是各国在争取自身战略利益的过程中不断寻求妥协,将彼此间的竞争控制在规则允许的范围内。基于美国实力相对衰弱、俄中实力上升、解决全球性和地区问题上需要合作等因素,三国关系仍可能以继续保持建设性合作的基本态势向前发展。     

21世纪美欧俄三边关系:能否超越地缘政治

当前 ,美欧俄三边关系与冷战时期美苏欧三角关系相比 ,有许多显著的新特点。美国作为当前世界上惟一的超级大国 ,自然成为美欧俄三边关系中矛盾的主要方面 ,而矛盾的主要方面决定这一关系的性质。布什政府的全球战略实际上是世界帝国战略 ,受新保守主义理论和进攻性现实主义理论影响最大。它与欧盟和俄罗斯的战略在目标、重点和手段上都有很大的不同。在冷战时期 ,美苏欧三角关系的互动模式主要是地缘均势模式 ,“零和”游戏规则在其中起主要作用。而在当前美欧俄三边关系互动中 ,虽然还存在地缘政治模式 ,但已出现地缘经济、国际机制、“共赢”等三种新的模式。美欧俄实力的消长、经济全球化和区域经济一体化趋势的发展将决定三边关系的互动模式。每一对双边关系中将是多种互动模式共存 ,美欧俄三边关系在一些重要领域互动中也是多种模式共存。在今后若干年美欧俄三边关系将处于十字路口。     

Reaching the Millennium Development Goals: equality and justice as well as results

Though less than expected, resources are available for simple, cheap interventions that can accelerate progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. Results-based management has been the key to increasing access to education and health care, but it does little to change the political, social, and economic conditions that make people poor. Unless there is a better balance between the drive to achieve measurable impact, investments in long-term poverty-eradication measures, and the creation of space where poor people can discuss and develop strategies for achieving equality and social justice, it will not be as easy to make poverty history as many people think.     

Hearts, as well as Minds: Wellbeing and Illness among Greek Cypriot Refugees

Recently the psycho-social health of refugees has rightly receivedemphasis, but the physical health of long-term refugees warrantssimilar attention. This paper uses qualitative and quantitativedata on informant-reported health outcomes for two Greek Cypriotvillage cohorts, one displaced, the other not displaced. Supplementarydata from a national diabetes prevalence study confirmed a possiblelink between refugee status and greater probability of cardiovascularillness. Depressive illness also seemed higher among the refugeevillage cohort. But it is not only the illness of some of theserefugees, but their surviving this, and the comparative wellnessof others which is important, compared with the ‘demographicshock’ victims of post-socialist Europe, 1989–1995.The paper suggests why the Greek Cypriots have done rather betterin health terms than the post-socialists of Eastern Europe,1989–1995, but argues that refugees in failing statesmay have much worse health outcomes.     

广西经济现状和优势以及广西企业向东盟发展的策略

本文介绍广西的经济现状、优势,提出广西与东盟进行经济贸易合作的建议。     

Not as bad as it seems: EU and US democracy promotion faces China in Africa

The rise of China in Africa is often described as a major challenge to the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) democracy promotion policies. China is accused of providing important volumes of loans, development aid, trade and investments without “political strings” attached, thereby undermining the US and the EU's possibilities to set material incentives for reforms. This article investigates Ethiopia and Angola as two cases where one would expect that the growing presence of China has made it more difficult for the EU and US to support reforms. Empirical findings presented in this article go against this argument. In both countries, the EU and the US face substantial difficulties to make the respective government address governance issues. However, the presence of China has not made it more difficult for the US and the EU to implement their strategies. Instead the empirical analysis suggests that domestic factors in Ethiopia and Angola, notably the level of challenge to regime survival both governments face, influence both governments’ willingness to engage with the EU and US.     

猪圆环病毒分离鉴定及猪断奶多系统衰弱综合征的诊断

剖检北京、河北某些猪场发生的仔猪先天性震颤、断奶后发育不良、咳喘、消瘦、黄疸等症状的病猪,均显示猪断奶多系统衰弱综合征(PMWS)的病理学变化;电镜观察病猪的脾和淋巴结组织样品,见细胞核内堆积大量无囊膜的病毒粒子;进而从病猪的病料中分离到2株猪圆环病毒(Porcine circovirus,PCV).经电镜观察细胞内增殖、浓缩、提纯的病毒,为直径约17 nm的无囊膜的病毒粒子;间接免疫荧光试验可观察到PCVⅡ特异性免疫荧光;用2对引物分别扩增分离毒株,均得到2条与PCVⅡ特异性核苷酸片段大小一致的扩增片段.     

Theory as Thought: Britain and German Unification

Inspired by Rudra Sil and Peter Katzenstein's call for analytic eclecticism and making use of newly available, previously classified archival documents, we distill the essential logics of realism, neoliberal institutionalism, and constructivism and examine their role in shaping the debates amongst British policymakers in the context of German unification in 1989-90. We find that, although all the theoretical logics help shape the policymaking surrounding unification, none stands alone as a basis for understanding social reality. Indeed, all functioned together as British policymakers thought in terms of theory to make sense of German unification. The logic of realism clearly played an important role in shaping the perceptions of top British leadership, particularly Margaret Thatcher, of German unification as a problem. But realism did not determine the solution to the "problem." Instead, British policymakers drew on the logic embedded in neoliberal institutionalism, turning to institutions to manage the unification process. The reason for this can be found in the role of constructivist logics-particularly identity and rhetorical entrapment-that constrained British policymakers to cooperative policy options. By taking this approach, this article makes several important contributions. First, it sheds light on British policy during a critical historical moment. Second, it significantly improves understanding regarding Germany's historical and current place in Europe. Third, it ties major theoretical traditions together through a foreign policy analytical approach, and in the process suggests that many of the theoretical boundaries separating scholars are overdrawn. Finally, the article pushes international relations scholars to keep in mind the complex relationship between reality and theory. In the final analysis, bringing to bear these three perspectives highlights the complexity of the processes that produced British policy-and by extension those that shaped German unification-as well as the importance of breaking free of the strictures of the ideas versus materiality debate.     

世贸组织存在的问题及其发展前景

1 999年 1 2月 3日 ,举世瞩目的 WTO第三届部长级会议在美国西雅图无果而终 ,WTO因此遭到了成立 5年以来的最大挫折。“千年回合”受阻的直接原因是成员方在农业、反倾销、劳工标准和环保政策等议题上的巨大分歧 ,而分歧背后所反映出的问题更是发人深思。目前 ,WTO正面临着如何协调成员国之间利益关系的挑战 ,其宗旨的实现也有待于成员国各方的努力与呵护。     

Business as Usual

In the years since 9/11, there is no doubt that the emphasis of U.S. global strategy has been on counter-terrorism and the war in Iraq. During this period of time, the U.S. investment in strategic, political and military resources in the Middle East, Iraq, and the war on terror, which are the top priorities on the list of Bush＇s foreign policy, has been far greater than in any other fields. However, there are some in the U.S. who believe that China＇s rise has been much ignored by the U.S., due to the global war on terror （GWOT）, and that America should, in fact, be focusing more on China, not the Middle East. However, as we see it, China has by no means been ignored by the U.S., neither has China＇s rise been the result of U.S. ignorance.     

Sovereignty as Responsibility

This article examines the development of a new normative principle of international order, sovereignty as responsibility; its communitarian implications; and the ways in which the newly conceived responsibility of the “international community” to protect the people of states failing to live up to their responsibilities as defined by international norms can come to terms with the notion of democratic self-government.