SPLM–NCP asymmetrical power relations jeopardise the implementation of the CPA and the future of the Sudan

ABSTRACT

The political instability that has characterised Sudanese politics since independence is attributable to political exclusion, economic neglect and marginalisation. Discrimination based on religion, language and culture has constituted the main contradictions between the masses of the Sudanese people (periphery) and the politically dominant Arabised Nubians (centre) in all the different politico-ideological hues experienced by the nation. Attempts to resolve this contradiction have left the structural imbalances inherited from the colonial administration of the Sudan intact. This explains the resurgence of war, particularly in Southern Sudan. The recent peace agreements between the National Congress Party (NCP), namely the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A); the Darfur Peace Agreement with the Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM) (Minawi); the Cairo Agreement with the National Democratic Alliance and the Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement with the Eastern Sudan Front, have left the NCP still in firm control of the oppressive state machinery. The CPA power-sharing protocol awarded the NCP a majority which institutionalises a power asymmetry that the NCP utilises to obstruct implementation of the CPA and delay the process of democratic transformation.

This article analyses the asymmetry in the NCP–SPLM partnership and power relationship. It assumes that the tragic death of Dr. John Garang de Mabior is a major cause of the political weakness demonstrated by the SPLM since 2005. This power imbalance jeopardises the CPA implementation and the future of the Sudan as a state.     

Under the conflicting pressures of the ideals of the era and the burdens of history: Ethnic relations in Estonia, 1918–1925

Abstract

One of the many challenges that Estonia faced when it gained independence was the minority question. The history of certain minorities, above all that of the Baltic Germans, has already been studied fairly intensively. Nevertheless, the scope of all previous studies has been rather narrow (the position of a single minority). This article traces the history of all ethnic minorities in Estonia and views them from a broader perspective. Answers are sought to the following questions: What were the ethnic relations like in Estonia in 1918–1925? Why were they so? Did they change in the course of time? The article is based on the systematic study of Estonian press and archival sources. It constitutes an expanded version of the conclusion of the author's Finnish-language monograph Ajan ihanteiden ja historian rasitteiden ristipaineissa: Viron etniset suhteet vuosina 1918–1925.     

The position of the states in the political thought of the Dutch revolt 1555–1581

Summary

In 1846 the Conservative party split over Peel's decision to repeal the Corn Laws. While over a third of Conservative peers voted for repeal from a variety of motives, not least out of loyalty to the Duke of Wellington, a clear majority rallied to the protectionist standard raised by the Duke of Richmond. The Protectionists elected Lord Stanley (the future fourteenth Earl of Derby) as their leader. Stanley's policy was to reunite the Conservative party in the House of Lords in opposition to the Whig government and to use this as a forge on which to work the reunion of the whole party. In 1846 this seemed to be a sensible policy with a reasonable chance of success. A majority of Peelite peers favoured reconciliation with the Protectionists and Stanley maintained generally good relations with the most prominent Peelites in the Lords during this period. Yet despite these advantages Stanley's policy failed. Although the Peelite peers did not organise as a political party they retained a separate identity and few of them joined the Protectionist government formed in 1852. Stanley failed because the strength of feeling associated with protectionism and free trade was too deep to be overcome, even in the Lords.     

Responding to Western Critiques of the Muslim World: Deconstructing the Cliché of Islamophobia and the Genealogies of Islamic Extremism

This paper is premised on the questions of whether Islam as a religion, spiritual domain, cultural practice and philosophy should be held responsible for whatever activities the Muslims choose to do in their personal capacity. Does the ascribed status of individuals being Muslims and their choice of declaring themselves as terrorists in the name of Islam entail that they are true followers of the religion and have been theologically and spiritually inspired by it? These questions have sprung up because Islam as a religion has constituted the fundamental component of western interpretation of the reasons for the rise of violent extremism involving Muslim radicals. In this context, the objective of this paper is to examine how the contemporary western interpretations, linking the actions of Muslim extremist groups with those of the ontology and epistemology of Islam, are predicated on a faulty cognition of the nature and the guiding principles of that religion itself. To accomplish this, the paper critiques Samuel Huntington's ‘clash of civilizations’ thesis and Bernard Lewis's version of the roots of Muslim extremism.     

Clash of the Titans?

Abstract

Asia's strategic evolutions during the next two decades or so will put major theories about great-power behavior to the test. A trio of new books about the Sino–Indian rivalry help sketch out a timely research agenda.     

Description of the peasants’ sexual behavior in August Wilhelm Hupel’s Topographical Messages in the context of the history of the Estonian family

The aim of this article is to introduce the work of August Wilhem Hupel, a Baltic German author of the 18th century. The article focuses on the sections in his most voluminous work Topographische Nachrichten von Lief- und Ehstland (1774–1782) that describe Estonian peasants’ sexuality. Hupel’s writings belong to the sources of the history of the Estonian family, a field that has been rediscovered at the beginning of the 21st century. Thanks to the work of Marika Mägi and Nils Blomkvist, a new paradigm for research in this field has been opened up. This article adheres to that paradigm.     

Fighting on behalf of the state—the issue of pro-government militia autonomy in the Donbas war

This study investigates the degree of autonomy the Ukrainian volunteer battalions had from the regular forces during the war in Donbas. The findings indicate that the degree of autonomy was high and that in particular, three initial conditions were decisive for this outcome: (1) the relative level of militia military strength in the initial states of conflict; (2) the degree of agenda overlap; (3) the degree of bottom-up organization. The empirical evidence further suggests that the three factors produced the identified outcome through the mechanisms of “institutional lock-in,” “performance interdependence,” and “entitlement.” Consequently, the Ukrainian state and regular forces ended up accepting a higher degree of autonomy, in terms of command and control, on the part of the volunteer battalions than they otherwise probably would have preferred. This outcome contributed significantly to saving the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state in 2014–2015, but may also have created conditions for challenges to the same state further down the road.     

Understanding the War in Syria and the Roles of External Players: Way Out of the Quagmire?

With Western commentators, media and think tanks still being the predominant determinant of the global international relations discourse and therefore also of the discourse relating to Syria, discerning actual realities coherently from the fog of a very biased narrative presents great challenges. Deciphering the complexities of West Asia has never been easy and the situation in Syria is particularly complicated. This article argues inter alia that the Commonwealth as an entity needs to add its efforts, voice and prestige to the global effort to prioritize the restoration of peace in West Asia in general and Syria in particular.     

A proper study of the discourse on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Methodological implications of a large-scale study of the first Gaza war

Drawing on a large-scale study examining the British broadsheets’ coverage of the first Gaza war, this paper proposes some methodological considerations for analyzing the particularly emotive discourse on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and suggests a reflective multi-methodological approach to account for both the complexities and the intensities of the conflict. The paper starts by arguing that, working with a large data-set, quantitative data are both required and required to be interpreted by acts of contextualisation. Two strategies of contextualization are then introduced: interpreting patterns and associations in the numerical data. Following this, the paper continues by examining the findings and dilemmas that have emerged from quantitative analysis, using qualitative analysis of editorial extracts. It therefore shows examples for how quantitative codes can be built into and built up by narratives and arguments. Doing this, it also demonstrates possible ways of connecting qualitative to quantitative research: explanation, extension, and transformation/subversion.     

The Emergence of the Idea of ‘International Law’ in the Ottoman Empire before the Treaty of Paris (1856)

The literature on the Ottoman Empire's position in the European states system generally considers the Treaty of Paris as a landmark event for the European states’ recognition of the Ottoman participation in the European concert and the advantages of European international law. This article argues that this consideration overestimates the impact of the Treaty of Paris and reveals that before 1856, the Ottoman Empire was a part of the European states system and was subject to European international law both in terms of treaty-making practices and in the utilization of European customary law. Moreover, the article argues that the Ottomans were interested in the concept of international law before the Treaty of Paris. The existence of archival documents on Ottoman dealings with the European states and the publication of two translations from the European international law treatises before the Treaty of Paris indicate that the Ottomans interest in international law was to ensure the survival of the empire.     

Courting the Voters? Policy Implications of Party Competition for the Reform Output of the Second Merkel Government

Understanding party competition as a ‘political market’, we explore its characteristics during the second Merkel government, 2009–13. On the demand side, analysing opinion polls and the Länder election results, we find that the outcome of the next Bundestag election was uncertain. Thus, electoral competition was likely to be intense. On the supply side, opposition parties presented credible alternatives to government policies with regard to social as well as environmental policy. Regarding the Euro crisis, however, a consensus across the established parties existed. Studying three of the most salient policy issues, we identify party competition as a crucial determinant of decision-making. While the debate on minimum wages was substantially shaped by party competition, resulting in ‘anticipatory obedience’, nuclear energy only became affected by electoral considerations after the ‘Fukushima shock’ which resulted in a major policy shift. Regarding the response to the Euro crisis, however, party competition was essentially suspended.     

Losing the Power of Parliament? Participation of the Bundestag in the Decision-Making Process Concerning Out-of-Area Military Operations

The article analyses the role of the German Bundestag in decision making on out-of-area military operations since 1994. It is framed by the research question whether the power of the parliament has been weakened by the building of international rapid reaction forces such as the European Battle Groups or the NATO Response Force. In the first part, the position of the Bundestag in the decisions since 1994 is explained. The second part is mainly focused on the decision-making process pertaining to the 2006 EUFOR operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In 2006, the German Battle Group was not sent to Congo due to domestic constraints. On the basis of this incident and a more general analysis, the article underlines the crucial role of the Bundestag in the decision-making process. It disputes the claim that the Bundestag is losing its power in favour of the government.     

The Bedouins in the Galilee in the War of Independence of Israel 1948–1950

The relations of the Bedouins with the Jewish population during the War of Independence were very complex. The Bedouins were both opponents and friends. Bedouin groups helped the Jews in their struggle against the Palestinian national movement and against the Arab armies like Arab-al-Hib. Before the foundation of the state, these Bedouins had already participated in the protection of the security of the Jewish population. They supplied intelligence on events of the Arab and Palestinian sides, and also fought by the side of the Jews in the War of Independence, but at that time other groups joined the Palestinian national movement and took part in the struggle against the Jewish population, more so after the declaration of the partition plan in the United Nations. Subsequently, Bedouin fighting gangs were established and they joined the Palestinian struggle with the Jewish population.

The Bedouin positions during the war had implications for their fate in the State of Israel. The War of Independence allowed a significant part of the Bedouin tribes to escape to the neighbouring Arab states – Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Many of the Bedouin tribes that escaped did so as they were connected with fighting with the Arab gangs and the Arab Liberation Army. The Bedouins who were in the Zionist camp during the war or who adopted a neutral position stayed in the territory of the borders of the State of Israel.     

Voices of the Commonwealth: An Oral History of the Modern Commonwealth 1965–2012

This article describes a major exercise undertaken by the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, London, to put together an oral history of the modern Commonwealth. The project was set in the context of a wider research agenda aimed at investigating whether the Commonwealth has made any difference globally in policy terms. As part of the exercise, the author, who was the lead researcher on the project, interviewed senior figures within the Commonwealth who played key roles in shaping the destiny of the organization and in influencing policy. The article is a personal account of the exercise.     

Palestine: the return of the one‐state solution

The Cambridge History of Islam. Edited by P. M. Holt, Ann K. S. Lambton, Bernard Lewis. Cambridge University Press, 1970. Volume I: The Central Islamic Lands. Pp. xviii, 815. Bibliog., Index. ££6.00. Volume II: The Further Islamic Lands, Islamic Society and Civilization. Pp. xxvi, 966. Plates, Bibliog., Index. £7.00.     

Antithesis – the reconstruction of the African Union for a viable and sustainable solution for the unity of Africans

ABSTRACT

Franz Fanon, the Algerian revolutionary of African descent, once declared: ‘Each generation must, out of relative obscurity, discover its mission, fulfil it or betray it.’ The challenge confronting African researchers on matters related to the Afro-Arab borderlands – regions spanning Tchad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania and the Sudan where the African and Arab worlds meet – centre on resolving, reversing and undoing historical denials and inaccuracies. This article critically reviews the falsification of history in this part of Africa, in the Sudan in particular, and the role of the Arab League, the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, the Organisation of African Unity and its successor the African Union, in addressing the plight of its inhabitants. The article concludes with the recommendation of the creation of a new, culturally based Pan-African organisation able to fill a void and offer redress.     

Framing the fall of Sinjar: Kurdish media’s coverage of the Yazidi genocide

Abstract

In the early morning of 3 August 2014, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) attacked the Sinjar district in the vicinity of Mosul. The area was largely under the control of Kurdish forces at the time, especially those associated with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Those forces could not defend the district and ISIS was able to take control of the area. Consequently, a considerable number of Yazidi people were killed or displaced, while female Yazidis were raped and kidnapped. This study, based on framing theory, attempts to explain how two major Kurdish media organizations, Rudaw, which is loyal to KDP, and the Kurdish News Network (KNN), which is loyal to the Gorran (Change) Movement, each covered the event in their news reports. By performing a content analysis of 222 news stories covering the event, the key finding of the research is that, in instances of assigning responsibility for the fall of Sinjar, political considerations are the determining factor in how the narrative was framed. Taken as part of a growing literature on media in Kurdistan, the research outlined in this article supports the conclusion that the framing of media coverage in the Kurdistan Region is subject to strong political bias and media organizations support the political narratives advanced by their political patrons, as it is the case in many other Middle Eastern countries.