Predicting the institutional effects of term limits

In this paper we develop a model to predict the seniority turnover, and transition consequences of term limit reforms for any institution with a regularized procedure for rotating membership. With this model we can predict the number of members who will be serving in their last term at any given time once an institution reaches a stable state under term limit reforms. For example, our results show that for the U.S. Senate current term limit proposals will result in a substantial increase in the number of “lame duck” members and a significant reduction in average seniority. We make no claims as to the public policy effects of term limit proposals. However, our model can be used to design a proposal that will maximize any benefits or minimize any public policy effects found to be associated with term limit reforms.     

The 1987 Norwegian Local Elections: A Protest Election with a Swing to the Right

In one way. Norway's local elections would seem to he a deviant case a protest election with a landslide victory to a recently established neo-liberalistic party, greater volatility among the voters, and an unusually low turnout. However, the election survey and other electoral statistics reveal a continuation and reinforcement of social and regional trends in voting patterns, trends which have emerged during recent elections.     

Fighting on behalf of the state—the issue of pro-government militia autonomy in the Donbas war

This study investigates the degree of autonomy the Ukrainian volunteer battalions had from the regular forces during the war in Donbas. The findings indicate that the degree of autonomy was high and that in particular, three initial conditions were decisive for this outcome: (1) the relative level of militia military strength in the initial states of conflict; (2) the degree of agenda overlap; (3) the degree of bottom-up organization. The empirical evidence further suggests that the three factors produced the identified outcome through the mechanisms of “institutional lock-in,” “performance interdependence,” and “entitlement.” Consequently, the Ukrainian state and regular forces ended up accepting a higher degree of autonomy, in terms of command and control, on the part of the volunteer battalions than they otherwise probably would have preferred. This outcome contributed significantly to saving the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state in 2014–2015, but may also have created conditions for challenges to the same state further down the road.     

LC-MS-MS analysis of buprenorphine and norbuprenorphine in whole blood from suspected drug users

A liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method is described for the analysis of buprenorphine and norbuprenorphine in whole blood. Linearity was achieved between 0.2-5 ng/g for buprenorphine and 0.5-5 ng/g for norbuprenorphine. Stability studies on spiked whole blood and an authentic sample showed no degradation of buprenorphine- and norbuprenorphine-glucuronide to their respective aglycones. Buprenorphine and norbuprenorphine showed some degradation when stored at 4°C for three weeks, but was stable when stored at -20°C for 4 weeks. The method was applied to forensic cases of driving under the influence of drugs (DUID) and petty drug offences (PDO) during 2007-2009. Out of 2459 cases analyzed, 322 were positive for both buprenorphine and norbuprenorphine (13%), 219 for buprenorphine only (9%), and 12 for norbuprenorphine only (0.5%). The mean and median concentrations (N=322) were 1.7 and 1.0 ng/g, respectively, for buprenorphine and norbuprenorphine. The mean and median norbuprenorphine/buprenorphine ratios were 1.5 and 1.1, respectively. There was no significant difference in concentration ratios for DUID and PDO cases (p>0.05). We conclude that the described method for analysis of buprenorphine and norbuprenorphine in whole blood could be used to investigate use or misuse of buprenorphine but that many of the cases presented with very low concentrations of buprenorphine. We also conclude that analysis should be performed within two weeks unless samples are stored frozen prior to analysis.     

Conservation,green/blue grabbing and accumulation by dispossession in Tanzania

This article shows how wildlife and marine conservation in Tanzania lead to forms of ‘green’ or ‘blue grabbing’. Dispossession of local people's land and resources has been gradual and piecemeal in some cases, while it involved violence in other cases. It does not primarily take the usual form of privatization of land. The spaces involved are still formally state or village land. It is rather the benefits from the land and natural resources that contribute to capital accumulation by more powerful actors (rent-seeking state officials, transnational conservation organizations, tourism companies, and the State Treasury). In both cases, restrictions on local resource use are justified by degradation narratives, while financial benefits from tourism are drained from local communities within a system lacking in transparent information sharing. Contrary to other forms of primitive accumulation, this dispossession is not primarily for wage labour or linked to creation of a labour reserve. It is the wide-open spaces without its users that are valued by conservation organizations and the tourism industry. The introduction of ‘community-based conservation’ worked as a key mechanism for accumulation by dispossession allowing conservation a foothold in village lands. This foothold produced the conditions under which subsequent dispossessions could take place.     

The Environment: How to Solve Problems That Don't Respect Borders

Many environmental problems do not respect political or jurisdictional borders. Not only does this frustrate the formulation of technical solutions, it also leads to duplication of effort, overlap and jealousies.
Australia has attempted to address such jurisdictional problems, as in the case of the Oceans Policy. At a global scale borders are fundamental stumbling-blocks. Disparities in wealth (the North-South divide) will need to be addressed if threats such as global warming are to be met.     

'Ideal Types' of Referendum Behaviour

Referendums represent a special variant of political elections. Although it must be assumed that the behaviour of voting in referendums is determined by a range of factors identical to those that are operative in other contests, it can be asked to what extent referendum voting behaviour is sensitive to active campaigning on the part of political parties and organized groups. It may add to our understanding of referendums, therefore, to analyze them in terms of three 'ideal types': party-structured, group-structured, and unstructured contests. Illustrations taken from certain recent referendums support the argument that it is useful to consider the extent to which these ideal types are in evidence - alone or in combination - when explaining referendum voting behaviour.     

Inter-Municipal Cooperation and Satisfaction with Services: Evidence from the Norwegian Citizen Study

We investigate the effects of inter-municipal cooperation on citizen satisfaction with fire services and refuse handling. While there is a growing interest in cooperation as a way of providing municipal services, little is known of the effect on citizen satisfaction. Through a multilevel analysis combining individual and municipal data, we find that inter-municipal cooperation has a negative effect on satisfaction with fire services, no effect on refuse collection but a positive effect on satisfaction with source separation. The results, we argue, show how the organizational form may affect satisfaction in different ways depending on service characteristics.