Hedging Strategies of the Middle Powers in East Asian Security: the Cases of South Korea and Malaysia

Many middle powers in East Asia—particularly South Korea and Malaysia—are affected by the strategic relationship between the USA (hereafter the USA) and China. Therefore, I would like to examine the strategic behaviors of the middle powers in East Asia from a hedging strategy perspective. The hedging strategy extends the logic of the traditional balance of power theory while maintaining a strong emphasis on structural incentives, which critics have found lacking in the soft balance approach. Most East Asian states have calibrated their security measures and strategies in response to the changing US-China relationship. The purpose of this article is to compare the hedging strategies of South Korea and Malaysia, which are middle powers, that affect the East Asian security order. This article, thus, aims not simply to explain specific instances of the hedging strategies of middle powers but also, based on this theoretical foundation, to establish a new frame of analysis for the hedging strategies of middle powers through objective and critical assessment.     

2011年韩国政治外交述评与展望

2011年韩国的政治外交出现了不少新的变化。＂安哲秀现象＂的出现打破了长期以来保守和进步两派左右韩国政治的格局,韩国社会开始形成超越保守与进步理念的＂第三势力＂。朴槿惠、韩明淑等一批女性政治家活跃于韩国政坛,备受瞩目。韩国在继续强化韩美同盟关系的同时,进一步加强与中国的外交关系。为了克服国际金融危机的影响,韩国大力开展FTA外交,并取得了显著成果。2012年是韩国大选之年,韩国各种政治势力正在积极整合力量,希望在选举中谋求自己的利益最大化。韩国政府将继续调整与大国的关系,开展多边外交,并积极推进与中国和日本的FTA谈判。     

Main-streaming the climate change and green growth agenda into development visions: A narrative from selected sub-Sahara African countries

Abstract

Primary commodities continue to play a critical role in the economic development of many economies in Africa. However, the climate change phenomenon is threatening the role of these commodities through two routes. First, through its demand for a development trajectory that mitigates and adapts to climate change by following a less primary commodities-intensive development agenda, and second, climate change induced extreme weather events such as floods and drought that threaten the production of some of these commodities, Through a case study of four primary commodities-intense African economies: South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Cameroon, this article examines the degree and intensity of the articulation of the climate change and green growth agenda in the policy documents that shape the development agendas of these countries. The findings indicate a paucity of discussions on the green growth agenda in the development visions of all the countries except South Africa. In contrast, there is a general discussion of the challenges that climate change poses to the development efforts and articulation of the need to mitigate and adapt to these challenges. The need for mitigation and adaptation is proactively articulated in the post-2007 development visions of South Africa, Nigeria and Cameroon and retrospectively discussed through complementary policy documents supporting the pre-2007 development vision of Kenya. What remains to be determined, is how these visions will be translated into specific policies and implemented in order to enable these economies to adapt to and mitigate climate change in a manner that allows them to sustainably exploit some of their primary commodities and to compete in a world that in the future will increasingly demand green products and services.     

South Africa's bilateral relationships in the evolving foreign policy of an emerging middle power

This article introduces the special issue on ‘South African Foreign Policy: identity, directions, and intentions’. Here we seek to summarize key insights from the contributions to this special issue to deepen understanding of South Africa’s evolving post-apartheid foreign policy through an exploration of the nature and trajectory of key bilateral relationships from both the global ‘South’ (Brazil, China, Iran, the AU) and ‘North’ (Japan and the UK). This window on the country’s international relations enriches understanding of the normative and structural factors that influence not only South African foreign policy, but those of what Edouard Jordaan calls emerging middle powers as they seek to position themselves as influential actors in international affairs. We sketch the contours of these key South African relationships in four areas where the tendencies and tensions of emerging middle power foreign policies are apparent: regionalism, multilateralism, reform of global governance, and approach to moral leadership.     

韩国国会政治中诱发肢体冲突现象的因素初探

肢体冲突是议会内处于劣势的少数党为表达抗议、进行自我防御的一种议事途径和手段。其最终目的是要通过议事妨害、拖延,达到阻止争议法案顺利通过的目的。研究表明,多数党的＂规则强权＂与少数党的＂自我保护、自我救济＂之间的对抗是引发肢体冲突的根本原因;而少数党以肢体冲突作为首选斗争方式,则根源于韩国国会制度中威权主义权力的运行惯例,以及议事规则中缺乏对少数党权利保障而形成的多数党与少数党严重的政治不平衡局面;从深层结构看,肢体冲突还与国会内部、政党内部的社会资本状况不足有着内在的联系。     

Should South Korea go Nuclear?

A nuclear debate has arisen in South Korea following North Korea's nuclear tests and weapons program. Despite the US extended nuclear deterrence for its security, a sizable section of the people in South Korea have started debating if their country can revisit the nuclear option as a deterrent to North Korea's continued threats. Several law makers have started articulating such a view. Several opinion polls held recently also endorse such a view. However, the US is unlikely to allow South Korea to take the nuclear path as it would have serious consequences not only for the region but also the world. China would also not rejoice with the prospect of having another nuclear power in its neighborhood. If South Korea goes nuclear, Japan and Taiwan will find it difficult to resist having their own nuclear weapons. To stem such a trend, it becomes all the more necessary for the international community to address the issue of denuclearizing North Korea. The suspended Six-Party-Talks ought to restart soon and China has a great role in reigning in Pyongyang. Fortunately, the government in South Korea has not supported the view of the country going nuclear. But if the security situation deteriorates further, it might become irresistible for the government to have a rethink, with an inevitable domino effect in Japan and Taiwan soon.

This article makes an in-depth study of the prevailing trend in South Korea, the views of some influential law makers pleading for the country to go nuclear, various public opinions polls, possible US stance and implications that such a change in policy would have on the region's security situation and the author's assessment based on the critical examination of the above-mentioned factors. Many sources have been cited to analyze this issue before arriving at an objective assessment of the point raised in this essay.     

South Africa’s foreign policy aspirations and the National Development Plan (NDP 2030): the role of soft power

Chapter 7 of the NDP 2030 articulates a foreign policy vision for South Africa over two decades. While the NDP acknowledges the place of ‘soft power’ in realising this vision, it remains doubtful whether South Africa will indeed take advantage of the enormous gains offered by soft power as a foreign policy lever. This paper examines the role of soft power in achieving the foreign policy mandates prescribed in the Plan. It argues that, like other regional powers such as China, South Africa needs to pay more attention to its soft power attributes if it is to fast-track the successful implementation of its foreign policy ambitions for 2030. We conclude that sustaining South Africa’s rising position and influence in the international system and in Africa, will largely depend on its ability to consciously adjust its foreign policy trajectories – in the long term – in tandem with its soft power resources and competences.     

21世纪中国地方政府在中韩关系中的作用

随着中国改革开放的深入和中韩关系的发展,中国地方政府开始在中韩关系中发挥日益重大的作用。本文以山东省、上海市、广东省、湖北省为案例,分析了21世纪中国地方政府在中韩关系中的作用。这种作用体现为以下三个方面：中国地方政府与韩国的经贸关系为中韩关系发展注入了强大的经济动力;中国地方政府与韩国的外事活动为中韩关系发展奠定了坚实的政治基础;中国地方政府与韩国的文化交流为中韩关系发展营造了友好的民意支撑。展望未来的中韩关系,本文得出的相关政策启示在于：对于中国地方政府而言,要为韩国企业入驻创造良好的投资环境;对于中国中央政府而言。需要给予地方政府在发展中韩关系中适当的授权和分权;对于韩国政府而言,需要积极应对中国经济发展方式的重大转变;2012年韩国丽水世博会将是进一步密切中国地方政府与韩国关系的重要契机。     

South Africa as an emerging power: from label to ‘status consistency’?

South Africa proudly wears the label ‘emerging power’, with its membership of the BRICS and G20 probably the most visible signs of this conferred status. This paper explores the concept of the emerging powers within the context of current global power shifts and locates South Africa within this group. It discusses the criteria for and characteristics of emerging powers, and then turns to some of the constraints and challenges faced by these states. Specific attention is paid to the ‘how’ of these states' recognition and inclusion in global institutions and the impact of domestic conditions and regional politics on their positions, focusing particularly on South Africa. It concludes that these factors will continue to challenge South Africa's ability to rise above the semblance of importance conferred by its inclusion in the category of emerging powers to a position in which it exercises this status to its own advantage, including its idealistic objectives of promoting greater global equality and recognition for Africa and the global South. Although other emerging powers face similar challenges, South Africa's domestic constraints and related lack of regional and global reach, politically and economically, threaten its ‘status consistency’ as an emerging power.     

South Africa’s multiple faces in current climate clubs

Climate clubs emerged as a concept to revitalise the international climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and mitigate the free-riding problem. The underlying idea suggests that countries committed to reducing emissions can advance a stable coalition in the form of a club with other countries. As a result, more countries would put forth targets for more ambitious emissions reductions. This article analyses South Africa’s memberships in current climate related clubs. We contextualise South African climate club governance in its wider geopolitical and national context of low-carbon development. The purpose of the analysis is to identify if and how South Africa can possibly contribute to advancing ambition for change within climate clubs. Furthermore, it advances ideas about possible design options for climate clubs that may appeal to developing countries.     

经济全球化与韩国民主化：以发展战略转型为视角

自20世纪60年代实施出口导向型发展战略后,韩国被纳入国际经济体系之中,并与之同步演化。随着新自由主义意识形态主导的全球化的进一步发展,出口贸易的严重依赖使得韩国政治经济发展受到全球市场的制约与影响。本文运用相互依赖理论来分析经济全球化的发展与韩国发展战略转型之间的相关性以及韩国经济结构的变迁及其与政治转型相互型塑的发展结果。     

Nationalism,Confucianism, work ethic and industrialization in South Korea

The “economic miracle” of South Korea has been well documented by many scholars, but most studies have focused on the cooperative relations between the state and entrepreneurial elites, with little attention being given to the accomplishments and contribution of Korean labor to industrial development. To date there has been no comprehensive sociological study as to how workers in South Korea were “ideologically” mobilized and motivated to commit their labor power to the process of industrialization. In an attempt to redress this imbalance, this article offers an analysis of the role of Confucianism and nationalism in the state-sponsored ideology of work in South Korea during its economic boom of the 1960s and 1970s. It is argued here that both the workers' voluntary participation in industrial work and the harmony in the workplace, which were two of the most essential factors in the nation's remarkable economic success during the 1960s and 1970s, were intimately linked to a new ideology of work and entrepreneurship which combined nationalism and pro-growth Confucian precepts. The article will thus sociologically examine ways in which ideas about work in South Korea have incorporated nationalist ideals and Confucianism, and analyze the relevance of this ideology of work to the nation's phenomenal economic growth.     

韩国民主化进程中的工人运动

一般认为，工人阶级在一个社会中是最活跃、最具革命性的群体，在民主化过程中，工人阶级应当发挥关键乃至领导者的角色。但本文认为，韩国的经验并未证明这一．最。相反，在韩国的民主化过程中，工人阶级表现得比较稳定。不论是1987年之前的“不充分民主”阶段，还是之后的“形式民主”的实质化阶段，韩国的工人阶级都始终表现为社会中的稳定力量，而不是积极参与民主运动并容易引起社会动荡的力量。这主要是由于国家通过控制意识形态、工会和立法以及限制工人阶级的体制外同盟对工人运动加以控制，同时也采取了相应的经济、政治以及配套的社会措施对其加以疏导，同时也伴随着工人阶级自身所作的适应和调整。     

Pseudo Change: China’s Strategic Calculations and Policy Toward North Korea after Pyongyang’s 4th Nuclear Test

After North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January 2016, China’s response was stern enough for certain China analysts to posit that the Middle Kingdom’s approach to its Cold War ally was changing. In reality, however, China’s imports from North Korea, especially coal, a crucial mineral for the North’s income but banned by United Nations (UN) Resolution 2270, did not decrease. Politically, China also strived to maintain mutual relations with North Korea. Based on its strategic and other cost-benefit calculations, Beijing needs to maintain economic and political ties with Pyongyang and thus has no incentive to seriously observe the U.N. resolution. In this context, China is expected to virtually repeat the gestures it made in the past in dealing with the North. Under these circumstances, sanctioning North Korea through China is not considered a viable option in tackling the nuclear issue; rather, the USA and South Korea should change their policy approach toward this problem.     

The transition in the political economy of South Korean development

This article analyzes the current transition in the political economy of South Korea in the context of political democratization and economic development. Because South Korea can be regarded as a case in which successful economic growth preceded political democratization, the article reviews the advantage and the disadvantage of late industrialization and its limitations. It discusses rising conflicts of interest among economic agents, labor disputes, and the erosion of international competitiveness. The article also reviews the sociopolitical reform program advanced by the new administration and its ramifications for the economic prospects. The article concludes that the Korean economy will continue to grow but not as fast as it had grown in the past and that the new political environment will play a critical role in determining the characteristics of capitalism in South Korea. The success of future economic development will depend on the stability of the political system and the national capacity to resolve conflict of interests.     

Future dynamics in Sino-Korea relations

This article argues that the basic interests of the major actors involved in the Korean problem converge on the cross-recognition and “two Koreas” formula. Seoul’s diplomatic normalization with Moscow, and North Korea’s ongoing negotiations with Tokyo, testify to this trend. Because of its sensitivity to North Korea’s dilemma and carefully measured policy, China has succeeded in sustaining North Korea’s trust while improving its ties with South Korea. Shaken by the changes in the international system and threatened by the rapidly growing economic capability of the South, North Korea’s overall foreign policy objective is shifting from unifocation to accepting the existing status quo, a movement toward a direction that China has been advising. A mostly likely breakthrough to the stalemate in Korea will come from the Pyongyang-Tokyo bilateral relations. Ironically, when the South feels more confident than ever before about the possibility of unification under its terms, the rest of world is moving toward the cross recognition it has advocated. Whether the two Koreas with over-lapping diplomatic relations with all four major powers surrounding the peninsula will be able to achieve the unification that all Korean people desire will largely depend on how the regimes manage inter-Korean relations in coming years.     

America's Korea,Korea's Vietnam

Atrocities committed by American soldiers against Vietnamese civilians during the Vietnam War have once again become an issue of public debate in the United States, yet similar actions by South Korean troops fighting America's war in Vietnam remain virtually unknown in the West. The Republic of Korea (ROK) dispatched more than 300,000 combat troops to Vietnam between 1965 and 1973, but after decades of enforced silence by successive authoritarian governments, Koreans have only recently begun to grapple with the ambiguous legacy of the Vietnam War for South Korea. In the spring and summer of 2000, testimonies in the South Korean media by Korean veterans of the Vietnam War revealed for the first time detailed, extensive accounts of Korean atrocities against Vietnamese civilians. These revelations, and the controversy they triggered within South Korea, bring into bold relief the role of Koreans in America's Vietnam War and the role of the Vietnam War in the political and economic development of South Korea.     

Trends in North Korean foreign policy

North Korea’s foreign policy track record in the post-cold war era is mixed. Most notable setbacks are the diplomatic normalization between the Soviet Union (now Russia) and South Korea; the reversal of its UN policy that paved the way for the simultaneous admission of the two Korean states to the world organization; and the diplomatic normalization between China and South Korea. On the credit side of Pyongyang’s diplomatic ledger are changes in its relations with Tokyo and Washington. While tangible results have yet to materialize, particularly in North Korea-Japan relations, the groundwork has nonetheless been laid for significant improvement. North Korea’s suspected nuclear weapons development program has played a major role in the unfolding of its relations with the United States. Conceptually, North Korean foreign policy can be explained in terms of its quest for three interrelated goals: security, legitimacy, and development. In the post-cold war era security appears to have emerged as the most important of the three goals. North Korea is at a crossroads. The choices it makes in foreign policy will determine not only the direction of its domestic policy but, ultimately, the survival of the regime itself. The external players in Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, Beijing, Moscow, and Vienna (the IAEA) have varying degrees of leverage over Pyongyang’s policy as well.     

Limited Pluralism in a Liberal Democracy: Party Law and Political Incorporation in South Korea

ABSTRACT

Formal modes of political incorporation in South Korea rest on a foundation of limited pluralism. The notion that the state should impose rigid boundaries on political representation pervades the country’s democracy. This notion is enshrined in law – in particular in the constitution’s Article 8 and in the Political Parties Act – and is upheld and perpetuated by the judiciary, the election commission, and the parties that dominate representative institutions. Labour is particularly disadvantaged by the limited pluralism contained in party laws. The role of party law in shaping modes of political incorporation is frequently overlooked. This account of party law in South Korea echoes this issue’s attention to the quiet ways that the state in Asia has silenced or ignored particular groups while maintaining the formal institutions of electoral democracy. In this case, the effect is to facilitate a rightward drift by the state as left-leaning actors face greater challenges in contesting elections.     

How the East Asian Crisis Will Change International Relations

We may expect regional response to the tension and conflict in Asia begun by China in 2009 gradually to transform the international order in that region, where the United States has been the active great power. Today the United States is so overextended in commitments and so lacking in force structure (and political will) that she can no longer play that role. Nor, however, has China succeeded in her initial assumption that regional powers would defer to her vastly increased military power. Unless China finds a way to extricate herself, we may expect regional powers, each strengthening herself, to grow closer together as a group in which Tokyo plays an unaccustomed central role, both in diplomacy and arms supply, although in coordination with the United States. North Korea is also highly dangerous. The likely outcome is greater military strength generally, with South Korea and Japan nuclear powers.