缅甸政治体制:特点、根源及趋势

军人发动军事政变建立军人政权,这是第三世界国家政治发展进程中的一个普遍现象。据统计:目前世界有53个军人执政的国家。一般来说,军人执政国家政治体制的发展具有如下几个共同规律:1)政治纲领和主张变化无常;2)长期政局不稳和政治、社会动乱;3)政权更替的主要方式是军事政变。但是缅甸的奈温人政权却表现出自己的特殊性。首先,奈温政权长期奉行缅甸式社会主义,且一直旗帜不倒;其次,缅甸政局自1962年奈     

后军人时代缅甸的“双头政治”及其外交影响

缅甸进入后军人时代后,国内呈现由军人集团和文官政府组成的"双头政治"权力格局,这种格局是前军人集团政治设计的结果,对现在缅甸的外交政策有很大影响。在外交政策的制定、落实和应对国际压力的过程中,"双头政治"的博弈因少数民族的政治参与而变得更加复杂,体现为军人、文官政府和少数民族的"三方博弈"。在缅北民族和解进程中,各方政治力量的博弈使得缅甸陷入既需要外部帮助斡旋而又让外部难以有效参与的困境。在中资大项目问题上,这些博弈导致缅甸对华政策出现"依赖"与"反依赖"纠葛,而中缅关系无法有效推进的局面。在若开罗兴亚人问题上,各方博弈更使缅甸陷入国际道义、政治与法律围攻的窘境。究其根本,缅甸仍停留在"求稳定"与"求发展"的初级阶段,而国内长期存在的政治认同分歧与族群割裂,使其在后军人时代可能进入另一个"乱局"。军人势力仍然强大、文官政权软弱、少数民族各自进行不同程度的国际动员,各方"自助"而"不得助"的客观形势,使得民盟政府初期良好的外交环境日益恶劣。因国内政治而不断引发外交危机,缅甸孜孜以求的独立自主、中立主义和韧性外交受到极大影响,缅甸的复兴梦与发展梦未有穷期。     

缅甸独立后外交政策的演变与中缅关系的发展

缅甸独立后,其政治发展经历了多次政权更迭,致使其外交政策发生了几次较为重大的变化。受此影响,中缅关系也出现了一些起伏,但总体上看,奉行积极友善的对华政策一直是历届缅甸政府所遵循的原则。     

1988年以来欧盟对缅甸的立场与政策浅析

自从1988年缅甸军人新政权上台以来,欧盟对缅甸的立场和政策具有多元性并兼顾平衡的特点,既有制裁措施,表达对缅甸军人统治的不满和批评,亦实施人道主义援助,协助缅甸发展社会经济;同时还在亚欧会议和欧盟-东盟会议框架下与缅甸政府保持接触.总之,欧盟对缅甸的政策受到其利益与国际危机处理模式的影响.     

缅甸军人政权缘何能长期存在?——一些西方学者的观点解析

缅甸的军人政权是当今世界寿命最长的军人政权之一.缅甸的军人政权缘何能长期存在,一些西方学者从不同角度进行了研究和解释.本文认为,一些西方学者对缅甸军人政权长期存在的内因的分析,多数观点是能够自圆其说的,但其关于外因的说法则值得怀疑.本文指出,一些西方学者将缅甸军人政权能够长期存在的主要外部原因归结为中国、印度、俄罗斯尤其是中国的支持,这是不切实际、带有政治偏见的.尤其是他们对所谓"中国在缅甸的战略利益"的种种猜测.似有"以小人之心度君子之腹"之嫌.     

影响印尼与美国关系的几个因素

美国是世界唯一的超级大国,印尼是世界第四人口大国,是东南亚地区领头的国家,美国与印尼关系对亚洲有着重大的影响。冷战时期,美国把印尼视为遏制共产主义和中国的重要一环,两国关系经历了交恶的苏加诺时期和结为盟友的苏哈托时期。苏哈托下台后,印尼新政府奉行大国平衡外交政策,印尼与美国关系虽然密切,但又保持着一定的距离。本文分析了影响印尼与美国关系的几个因素,与读者探讨。     

进步还是倒退?——政治发展视野下的缅甸2010年选举

从政治发展角度讲,缅甸2010的选举更多地意味着一种倒退。该选举赋予了军人集团的政治垄断以正当性。这样的结果之所以会出现,全国民主联盟的错误选择是其中一个重要的原因。选举后的缅甸新政权,虽然依然会面临来自西方国家的强大压力,但来自亚洲一些国家的支持,则会给缅甸的新政权提供有力的支撑。展望未来,缅甸的政治发展之路将十分艰难。     

军政关系与缅甸政治发展道路的形成——兼论其对外交关系的影响

自现代国家建立之后,缅甸便致力于走议会制民主政治道路,但其发展却屡遭挫折.纵观缅甸跌宕起伏的政治发展进程,其命运始终与军人集团紧密关联,军政关系是直接决定缅甸政治发展道路的重要因素.军政关系既是塑造缅甸政治结果的核心机制,也是理解其政治发展道路的关键密钥.在1988年"缅甸之春"之后,军人集团开启了"渐进性脱离"模式的政治民主化转型,军人集团全面领导、设计和构建了"有纪律的民主"这种具有缅甸特色的政治体制.事实上,缅甸"有纪律的民主"并不是绝对意义上的西方式民主政体,而是一种兼具威权统治方式与民主政治规则的"混合政体".军人集团构建"有纪律的民主"这种特殊"混合政体"的根本目的是要继续维持自身对国家的领导,其缘起、形成及建构与缅甸的军政关系有着极为密切的关系.同时,"有纪律的民主"也是缅甸探索走具有本国特色政治发展道路的结果.文章通过结合军政关系来理解缅甸在1988年后的政治发展道路的形成机制,这将丰富对于军政关系、"混合政体"及军人政权转型等方面的研究,也有益于认知当代后发国家自主探索走具有本国特色发展道路的特殊规律和前沿动态.     

国际身份危机与缅甸军人接权后的外交困局

缅甸在军方重新接管政权两年多来，国内危机持续外溢，在国际上遭受西方制裁等危机。既有文献从军方合法性、反对派动员和大国博弈的角度去解读，但仍难以系统诠释缅甸危机的僵局所在，也即缅甸内部政治互信与国际信任赤字相互叠加的结果。缅甸在政权更迭后，无法由内而外塑造“我群”共识，与国际行为体产生难以调和的认知歧异，继而生成了多重身份危机，包括遭受制裁、难以“重新融入国际社会”的转型身份危机，难以继续融入“东盟大家庭”的地区身份危机，以及与大国关系失衡的中立身份危机。缅甸的国际身份在2011—2020年的转型十年间逐步明晰，而在2021年转型受挫后，外交困局也随之而来。通过案例分析发现，缅甸看守政府改善外交处境的前提是努力确保国际身份清晰化，同步争取外部共识。鉴于中短期内缅甸难以确证转型身份和中立身份并回归“正常国家”,通过“东盟方式”重塑地区身份仍是最不坏的选择。     

东盟对中国崛起的认知和反应——以东盟大国平衡外交政策的调整为例

东盟对中国的崛起持欢迎态度,与此相应,东盟对原来中美日三个大国的大国平衡外交政策进行了微妙的调整,即疏远美日、拥抱中国.东盟大国平衡外交政策调整的原因与国际形势的变革、中美日三国实力的变化及其对东盟外交政策功利性对比密切相关.对东盟大国平衡外交政策的调整,中国应审时度势,利用契机,从经济、政治安全和软实力外交等领域进一步推动中国-东盟双边关系的发展,从而为中国的和谐世界外交战略打下区域基础.     

布什政府对台政策的回顾与展望

布什政府第一任期内的对台政策经历了从亲台、抚台向抑台的转变,呈现出不断调整、战略清晰化、军事关系强化、与对华政策反向互动等特征.未来美国对台政策将以维持台海现状为主,继续对台军售、提升美台关系,拉拢日本等盟国参与,对重大"台独"事变发生时大陆可能采取的武力解决方针进行"吓阻",但也会继续遏制"台独",支持两岸接触谈判.我们应当以新的思路改善两岸关系及与周边国家的关系,铲除美国"以台制华"着力点,分化美国"以台制华"同盟,战术上"以美制台",增强自身经济、军事实力和制度竞争力,做好应付战争的准备.     

美国南海政策的军事化及其影响

当前,国际社会正处于"百年未有之大变局"中,中美两国竞争加剧。在这一背景下,美国南海政策的军事化倾向尤为突出。通过案例分析、运用比较分析的方法对美国南海政策军事化及其影响进行探究,可以看出美国南海政策军事化的主要目的是遏制中国的崛起。为达到这一目的,美国提升了"航行自由行动"的频率和烈度,增加了在南海内沿和外围的军事战略存在,还加强了与盟国的同盟关系。不过,美国国内有一部分人认为南海政策军事化目前并未达到其希望的效力,反而使美国在战争与和平之间愈加难以保持平衡。美国在南海地区的影响力受到挑战的同时,中美关系也因此有所倒退,南海局势变得更加复杂。鉴于此,中国一方面要保持克制态度,增强危机意识,做好预案,通过高质量外交对话等方式增进与美国的政治互信,另一方面也要加快推进与东盟国家《南海各方行为准则》的谈判与磋商,与东盟国家一道维护好南海地区的和平与稳定。     

Japan's Foreign Policy beyond Short-term Politics

In August 2009, the Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP), which had been in power since 1955, lost the general elections to a recently-formed party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The LDP's foreign policy had placed emphasis on relations with the US, and on international cooperation and relations with Asia. The LDP's foreign and defense policy lacked a long term vision; it was incremental, pragmatic and could be described as reactive or passive. An examination of the DPJ's foreign policy, three years after its coming to power, reveals that it has accepted part of the LDP's inheritance. The Japan-US Alliance was reasserted as pivotal to Japan's security. Cooperation with Asia has not given birth to a new regional structure or to new institutional mechanisms, and dialogue with China has not improved; incrementalism is still preferred in the field of defense. Nonetheless, the fact that Japan's opposition is now a catch-all party at the center of the political scene changes the framework of foreign and defense policy-making considerably. Therefore, the likelihood of interpartite cooperation over foreign and security policy is theoretically conceivable. Nonetheless, political and institutional constraints to change in the field remain.     

冷战后缅甸的对华政策

在冷战期间,中国对缅甸采取党对党、政府对政府的双重政策。１９８８ 年缅甸发生政治动乱后,中国终止了对缅共的支持。１９８９ 年４ 月缅共因发生内讧而解体,年迈的领导人被遗弃,这一中缅关系中的敏感问题不复存在。鉴于共同的世界观,中缅双方高层人员往来频繁。双方高级将领也经常互访,以加强缅军与中国人民解放军之间的人事关系     

Shifting Domestic Politics and Security Policy in Japan and Taiwan: The Search for a Balancing Strategy between China and the US

This article examines the impact of the changed domestic political environment in Japan and Taiwan in the second half of the 2000s, namely the arrival of administrations with a more moderate China policy, on their respective relations with Beijing and Washington. It seeks to find out the extent to which Japan under the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and Taiwan under the Kuomintang (KMT) may have attempted a policy shift towards accommodation of China at the expense of their respective security ties with America. The article also examines how much impact upon security policy can be traced to the changes in domestic politics in the two cases. The discussion suggests that, irrespective of the altered domestic political situation, the concern that China's growing military power may adversely affect national interests has largely trumped the political will for seeking accommodation, more so in the Japanese case than in the Taiwanese case. While both Tokyo and Taipei have avoided deferring to Beijing's interests, each has sought to strike a delicate balance between engaging China and maintaining defense ties with the US.     

布什政府对东盟的政策及其对中国的影响

本文总结了布什执政以来美国对东盟的政策,探讨了影响美国政策的因素,分析了美国对东盟政策的调整将对中国—东盟关系产生的影响。文章认为,“9.11”事件以后,美国的反恐战争为其重返东南亚提供了契机。布什政府调整了对这一地区的政策,改善或提升了与东盟国家的关系。然而,把东盟作为一个地区机制,美国还没有完整的战略。美国主要推进的是双边关系,其中以军事关系为重。美国政策对中国的影响是复杂的,在中美关系稳定的情况下,其负面影响在短期内不会太大。     

The Evolution of Malcolm Fraser's China Policy

This article explores the evolution of Malcolm Fraser's views on China. While Gough Whitlam is fondly remembered as a trailblazer for normalizing Australia‐China relations, Fraser was a pioneer in rendering a sense of bipartisanship in Australia's China policy. Fraser was not initially a Sino‐enthusiast, however. He came from a background of staunch anti‐Communism and throughout the 1950s and 1960s believed that China posed a major threat to stability in the Asia‐Pacific. The Liberal Party fiercely opposed the Whitlam government's decision to normalise diplomatic relations with China in 1972. Following the Whitlam dismissal in 1975, Fraser became Prime Minister and, in what seemed to be an abrupt departure from the Liberal Party's position, thoroughly embraced relations with China. As Leader of the Opposition, Whitlam called out the hypocrisy of the Liberal Party's radical policy shift. This study examines the domestic and international dynamics that shaped Fraser's views on China and ultimate adoption of a successful China policy. This is the untold story of a crucial turning point in Australia‐China relations under the leadership of a conservative government, in which a strong relationship with China became a cornerstone of bipartisan Australian foreign policy.     

试析冷战后老挝的对华政策

冷战结束后 ,老挝加快了对华方针和政策的调整 ,两国关系在经历曲折后得到了全面恢复和发展。老挝实施新的对华政策具有积极意义。未来老挝对华政策的总趋势将是继续促进两国睦邻友好和全面合作关系的平稳发展。     

Geopolitics,Ethnic Conflicts along the Border,and Chinese Foreign Policy Changes toward Myanmar

Ever since Myanmar reoriented its foreign policy as a result of its transition to democratic rule in 2010, it has significantly improved its relations with the West, particularly the United States. Amid heightened geostrategic competition between the U.S. and China, how can we understand the Chinese government’s changing approaches to Myanmar, where China’s strategic and economic interests face unprecedented pressure? This article examines those changes in the context of the Chinese government’s response to three militarized ethnic conflicts along its border with Myanmar before and after Myanmar’s foreign policy reorientation. Drawing evidence from Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs statements and Chinese media coverage of the 2009 and 2015 Kokang conflicts and the 2011-2013 Kachin conflict, the article argues that combined geopolitical changes and domestic nationalist signaling explain the variations of China’s foreign policy approaches to Myanmar. The article thus contributes to ongoing interest in China’s foreign policy approaches to Southeast Asia in the wake of geostrategic competition between China and the United States.     

Swiss Energy Policy and the Challenge of European Governance

The European Union establishes external relations with third countries in different ways. Network governance is considered as an organisational opening that provides for more cooperative flexibility and inclusion. In this article, I examine to what extent network governance enables Switzerland's inclusion in the European energy sector. I argue that, as the network governance of EU energy policy becomes more institutionalized – from the regulatory forums of Florence and Madrid to the European Regulators Group for Electricity and Gas (ERGEG) – Switzerland tends to be excluded. I further argue that this lack of political inclusion is partly compensated by patterns of market governance that favor Swiss firms. Neither network nor market governance, however, is a sufficient form of coordination and traditional options such as bilateral agreements (electricity) and autonomous adaptation (gas) seem inevitable.