试析土耳其文官政治与军人政治的博弈——基于正义与发展党的执政实践

军人在土耳其历史文化中占据重要地位,曾经通过3次军事政变推翻民选政府,并通过还政文官政府使土耳其沿着凯末尔主义的方向前进。正义与发展党上台后,尽管文官政府和军方极力维持脆弱的平衡关系,但双方在权力争夺、加入欧盟、库尔德问题、复兴伊斯兰文化等方面分歧重重,争端不断。文官政治和军人政治博弈的结果说明了土耳其的军人政治逐渐让步于文官政治,军人干政在可预见的将来很难再发生;尽管世俗主义和伊斯兰主义之间的斗争仍很激烈,但已逐渐趋于理性;正义与发展党"保守的民主"模式获得民众的普遍认可,将为中东诸国提供一种民主发展的范式。     

近三十年来国内土耳其政治研究概览

现代土耳其是重要而特殊的中东伊斯兰国家.凯末尔在土耳其进行的世俗主义改革是一场革命,在中东伊斯兰国家和地区产生了深远影响.1945年以来,土耳其率先向多党制过渡,启动了漫长、艰难而又最终成功的民主发展历程.     

影响土耳其当代政治发展的历史文化遗产

现代土耳其有四大政治文化遗产,即传统威权主义的军人政治遗产、伊斯兰政治文化遗产、凯末尔主义遗产和多党民主政治遗产.它们都在现代土耳其国内政治的发展变化中起独特作用.作为一个创造了悠久文明、曾经对世界历史产生了重大影响的国家,现代土耳其不可避免地会受到其历史文化遗产的影响,而现代土耳其的种种矛盾现象,正是这些历史文化遗产与现当代社会现实相互冲撞和冲突的产物.     

论正义与发展党执政下的土耳其"民主模式"

正义与发展党有浓厚的伊斯兰主义背景,且有广泛的社会基础,但就该党性质而论不属于伊斯兰主义政党.正发党执政以来奉行温和、务实的政策,以"民主保守党"自居,积极推进民主化进程,在宗教与世俗间寻求平衡,在不改变国家政权世俗性质的前提下,竭力维护伊斯兰文化传统和习俗,强调伊斯兰价值观的重要性.正发党主导下的民主模式对土耳其政治发展道路有重大影响.与此同时,宗教与世俗间的较量复杂多变又决定了这种民主模式内涵的模糊性和不确定性.     

土耳其国家与宗教——凯末尔世俗主义改革之反思

凯末尔世俗主义改革的主旨,与其说是政教分离,不如说是国家控制宗教.凯末尔世俗主义改革极大地强化了国家对宗教的控制,但这场精英主义运动没有抵达边缘,也没有接近民众.土耳其具有中心-边缘、国家与宗教双重二元结构,也具有作为边疆国家的特殊性与对欧洲和伊斯兰的双重身份认同,其国家与宗教的关系极为复杂.伊斯兰是奥斯曼-土耳其的主要和内在属性,欧洲性是土耳其的次要和外在属性.把伊斯兰定性为土耳其的内在属性,就可以理解和解释边缘的强大,世俗主义改革的受挫与历经数代人强力的世俗化后,具有伊斯兰教背景的正义与发展党在政治上的强势崛起.     

土耳其正发党与繁荣党的差异比较研究

土耳其繁荣党和正发党是明显亲伊斯兰的政党,但两党在一系列关键问题上意见相左.繁荣党有明显的政治宗教化倾向,正发党则坚持温和世俗主义基础上的政教分离原则;繁荣党在政治上实行专断,正发党则提倡民主宽容;繁荣党否认西方文化,反对欧盟,正发党则肯定欧盟的进步价值,在土耳其争取加入欧盟方面取得重大进展;繁荣党未能改变土耳其经济的总体形势,正发党则引导土耳其经济摆脱危机,实行健康发展.上述差异是促使繁荣党被取缔和正发党连续执政的决定性因素,并可能对未来的土耳其政教关系和中东原教旨主义思潮产生积极影响.     

土耳其新总统阿卜杜拉·居尔

2007年8月28日，尽管饱受争议、一波三折，阿卜杜拉·居尔终于在第三轮总统选举中赢得超过半数的议会席位而成为土耳其世俗共和国历史上第一位具有浓厚伊斯兰背景的总统。虽然根据土耳其宪法，总统仅仅拥有签署法律以及否决法案的象征性权力，但被视为土耳其世俗主义堡垒的总统职位一旦被伊斯兰主义者攻破，从而实现正义与发展党对总统、议会和政府的控制，这就意味着土耳其共和国将进入一个新的历史时期。     

土耳其和巴基斯坦政教关系对比研究

土耳其与巴基斯坦一直具有传统的友好关系,共同的宗教信仰是土耳其与巴基斯坦相互认同的一个重要基石;两国95%以上的居民都是穆斯林,伊斯兰教在两国的政治、经济、社会、文化和外交等方面都起着非常重要的作用。在两国历史发展中都曾出现伊斯兰政治化和政治伊斯兰化的趋势,在全球化的进程中,伊斯兰复兴是两国都要面对的问题。本文试图在探讨土耳其与巴基斯坦建国之初对伊斯兰教的定位的基础上就两国在政教关系方面的异同作较为深入和系统的比较和分析。     

土耳其新总统阿卜杜拉·居尔

2007年8月28日，尽管饱受争议、一波三折，阿卜杜拉·居尔终于在第三轮总统选举中赢得超过半数的议会席位而成为土耳其世俗共和国历史上第一位具有浓厚伊斯兰背景的总统。虽然根据土耳其宪法，总统仅仅拥有签署法律以及否决法案的象征性权力，但被视为土耳其世俗主义堡垒的总统职位一旦被伊斯兰主义者攻破，从而实现正义与发展党对总统、议会和政府的控制，这就意味着土耳其共和国将进入一个新的历史时期。     

试论军人政治与民主化进程——以土耳其1980年政变为例

20世纪70年代土耳其遭遇严重的政治、经济和社会危机,各届政府无力应对,最终导致军队干预.稳定国内局势成为政变后军方的首要任务,构建新的权力架构是政变的逻辑延伸.1982年宪法是文官政治恢复的重要标志,翌年全国大选则是恢复文官政治的实质性步骤.恢复文官政治使土耳其政变获得了异于南美洲国家军事独裁的特征.土耳其军方发动政变,旨在维护自身利益,其客观后果则是民主事业的"归位".1980年政变并非土耳其民主发展的悲剧,而是土耳其民主框架的"理性收缩";不是民主发展遇到的挫折,而是民主发展模式的调整.     

Religious parties and democracy: A comparative assessment of Israel and Turkey

Discussions of the role of religious parties in democracies can be highly misleading when they take the parties' ideologies at face value and assign them to the binary categories of moderate vs radical. Only by a careful review of how religious parties use religious and secular symbols in defining their political stances can we evaluate their roles vis-à-vis liberal democracy. The competing political ideologies of the Mafdal and Shas Parties in Israel and the National Action Party, the Prosperity Party and the Justice and Development Party in Turkey are foci of this analysis. Two controversial concepts, ‘redemption’ in Israel and ‘secularism’ in Turkey, are used to question how these parties appropriate religious symbols in their policies towards secular public and institutions. The arguments draw on a set of interviews with the religious party leaderships and a content analysis of party ideologues' views. The findings suggest that parties that adopt the strategy of sacralization (that is, assigning religious meanings to secular ideas thereby treating them as sacred) appear more moderate yet they are more likely to support authoritarian policies. However, the so-called radical religious parties tend to be more inclusive and are more likely to secularize their respective religious tradition internally by redefining secular terms. Despite their novel political agendas both groups fail to exhibit principled commitment to liberal values and fail to provide inclusive and coherent alternatives to their secularist counterparts.     

Demographics, Religion, and the Future of Europe

Immigration and changing demographic trends mean that Europe will in the very near future inevitably be transformed, culturally and politically. As in the Cold War, it again represents a critical theater for rivalry, but this time it is between Christianity, Islam, and secularism. European nations will either be the sites of religious conflict and violence that sets Muslim minorities against secular states and Muslim communities against Christian neighbors, or it could become the birthplace of a liberalized and modernized Islam that could in turn transform the religion worldwide. We urgently need to understand the developing contours of European religious beliefs and practices, and not just as they apply to Muslims, for the outcome of the rivalry there will have profound implications for the United States.     

Armies of God,Armies of Men: A Global Comparison of Secular and Religious Terror Organizations

This article compares the violent activity of secular and religious terror organizations. Utilizing data compiled by the Global Terrorism Database cross-referenced with secondary and primary sources regarding the degree of religious components embedded in organizations’ ideologies, it tests the violent patterns of activity carried out by organizations guided by predominantly secular, secular/religious, and religious ideologies, between the years 1970 and 2012. The findings confirm that a) religious ideology correlates with specific, more deadly, attack tactics and violent patterns; and b) the degree of religious components within terror organizational ideology should be tested along a spectrum: the more religious an organization is, the more attacks it tends to carry out, and the deadlier its attacks become.     

What's so ‘religious’ about ‘religious terrorism’?

This article assesses the validity of the concept of ‘religious terrorism’ and its consequences for research and policy practices. It explores the origins, assumptions and primary arguments of the term and subjects them to an analytical assessment. It argues that the distinctions typically drawn between ‘religious’ and ‘secular’ terrorism are problematic, both conceptually and empirically, and that the term is misleading in its typical assumptions about the motives, causes and behaviour of groups classified as ‘religious terrorist’. In particular, it shows that the behaviour of those thus labelled is so diverse, and often so indistinguishable from their ‘secular’ counterparts, that the term has little meaning without further qualification, while simultaneously obscuring important aspects of both ‘religious’ and ‘secular’ violence. It then goes on to illustrate how the term, rooted in a particular historically situated understanding of religion and a particular set of power structures, serves as a disciplinary device to domesticate ‘political religion’, delegitimising certain actors while legitimising a number of highly contentious counterterrorist practices designed to deal with those described as ‘religious terrorists’. The article ends with some suggestions for alternative ways to study the role of beliefs and institutional structures, religious or otherwise, in producing political violence.     

Islamic terrorist activities in turkey in the 1990s

This article focuses on Islamic terrorism in the framework of overall Islamic activity in Turkey. It argues that Islamic terrorist organizations active in Turkey during the 1990s strived to establish an Islamic shari ’a‐based state on the Iranian example, profited from deeper social and political trends in Turkish society and, at the same time, strengthened those trends by their violence. These groups enjoyed wide Iranian support and often acted on behalf of Iranian local and regional, political and strategic interests. The reaction of Turkish authorities in the past to Islamic terrorist activity was limited, and thus encouraged leaders of these groups and their sponsors to continue escalating violence, hoping it would bring down the secular democratic regime in Turkey.     

Party prohibition cases: different approaches by the Turkish constitutional court and the European Court of Human Rights

The article deals with the different approaches followed by the Turkish Constitutional Court and the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) in party prohibition cases. The Turkish Constitution and even more so the Law on Political Parties contain a long list of party bans, the violation of which leads to the closure of the party by the Constitutional Court. The Turkish Constitutional Court, both under the 1961 and the 1982 Constitutions, interpreted these provisions in an exceedingly illiberal manner, and has so far closed down a total of 24 political parties. Turkish rules and practices concerning the prohibition of political parties are among the most important ‘democracy deficits’ of the Turkish political system. In the article, the Turkish Court's illiberal approach to party prohibition cases, especially those involving the protection of the national and territorial integrity of the state and of the principle of secularism, is compared with the much more liberal criteria developed by the ECtHR and the Venice Commission.     

Turkish–Syrian relations in the wake of the Syrian conflict: back to securitization?

This paper analyses the bilateral relations between Turkey and Syria since the breakout of the popular uprising in 2011, with particular reference to a securitization–desecuritization framework. The author inquires whether Turkish policymakers have securitized the Syrian civil war and framed it in security-laden discourse in the time period under review. Turkey extended strong support to the demonstrations and invested efforts towards a regime change. Assad’s response was unfriendly. Both the Assad regime’s policy vis-à-vis Turkey and the repercussions of the civil war in Syria posed serious threats to Turkish national security. However, based on the analysis of official statements by Turkish authorities during the crisis, the author argues that Turkey avoided framing the Syrian refugee crisis in security terms, whereas border violations, such as the downing of a military aircraft by Syrian regime forces, were defined as threats to national security. The paper further discusses the reasons for Turkey’s selective approach to issues concerning bilateral relations with Syria.     

India's secularism in comparative perspective

This review assesses whether Gary Jeffrey Jacobson's The Wheel of Law resolves the two major dilemmas besetting Indian secularism: first, how to reconcile the paradox of transforming formal equality into substantive equality for groups and individuals while also allowing religious freedom; and, no less importantly, with whom lies final authority for transforming religious practices. This review essay argues that the crisis of secularism, linked intimately with democracy and manifested in the rise of religious majoritarian (Hindu) nationalism, can be resolved only by confronting the question of power – in this case, the authority to alter religious practices.     

Why this institute

Turkish democracy passed its “maturity” test in 2007. The massive shift of power from the Kemalist establishment to the rising, mostly provincial elites and their allies culminated in the landslide victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the summer, which increased and consolidated its electorate after its first electoral victory in 2002. One of the main fault lines of the Turkish social and political order, secularism, took centre stage in the military's interference in the presidential election debacle, the ensuing massive demonstrations and the parliamentary and presidential elections that followed. At the same time, xenophobic nationalism, the dark side of democracy, raised its ugly head, fed further by the exacerbation of PKK violence. With the AKP's monopolisation of power, Turkey's politics are in uncharted waters and many of the givens of the republican era are being questioned. Unable to cope with the profound economic and social transformations and changing composition of the population due to massive migration, the old political structures are crumbling, yet the new political leadership, so adept at municipal government and so pragmatic in its approach to problem solving, has yet to offer the country a comprehensive vision of its politics.     

俄东正教的特点及其对白银时代宗教哲学的塑造

作为基督教的分支,俄罗斯东正教具有区别于新教与天主教的特征,这些特征表现在对世俗政权的依附性、浓重的神秘主义色彩、重视神人性原则、重视灵修、重宗教仪式等。东正教对于俄罗斯文化与历史产生了极其深远的影响,它是俄罗斯白银时代宗教哲学逃脱不掉的"母体文化",引导和塑造了俄罗斯白银时代宗教哲学的基本精神取向。