试析泰国社会运动和政治不稳定的根源

自2005年以来,泰国政治风波不断,社会运动此起彼伏.无论是他信派还是反他信派势力执政,政府都面临着来自民间力量的强大压力.本文对社会运动的概念作了初步探讨,并且确定了泰国半自主、半宪政的国家类型.在此基础上,文章从政治形态、经济背景、文化传统三个分析维度考察近三年来泰国社会运动多发和政治秩序不稳定的深层根源.     

泰国对华友好合作政策的动力与前景

泰中关系自两国建交以来一直发展平稳.近年来随着中国的和平崛起,泰国他信政府出于国家利益的考虑,积极推行对华友好合作政策,两国关系呈现加速发展的势头.本文从国家利益层面分别从经济、政治和安全的角度分析了泰国推行对华友好合作政策的动力,并对泰国对华政策的前景做了评估.     

泰国他信的治国之道

泰国总理他信提出了以经济增长为目标、以管理为核心的治国理念,并依此理念对泰国的法定独立机构、官僚和军队进行了政治化改造,对社会问题实行了更为切实有力的解决措施。他信的治理之道既是泰国经济迅速发展、他信能够连任的一个主要因素,也是他信饱受抨击和反对,造成泰国当今政治动荡不定的一个决定因素。     

泰国的禁毒运动

制毒、贩毒和吸毒是当今世界最大的公害之一。它跟艾滋病、恐怖主义一样,是人类的大敌。目前全世界毒品的种植、生产和消费仍呈蔓延和发展的趋势,毒品问题已成为全球性的问题,几乎没有一个国家能幸免于难。地处世界著名毒源“金三角”的泰国,更是在劫难逃,长期受到毒品的危害和困扰,可以说,毒品已成为泰国国家安全与稳定的主要威胁之一。他信政府自2001年2月上台执政以来,把禁毒作为与脱贫、治贪并列的三大施政目标之一。他信认为,毒品是泰国当前的大敌,防毒反毒是政府的当务之急,提出了向“毒品宣战”的口号。近三年,由于措施得力,行动果断,所以扫毒工作战果累累。泰国政府禁毒的成功将不仅造福于全体泰国人民,也将为整个亚洲乃至全世界的禁毒斗争做出历史性贡献。     

泰国民主政治的怪圈

泰国实行宪政以来经历了多次军人政权和民选政权的交替,形成了政治循环的怪圈,而且每个周期的更替多伴随着暴力冲突和政治动乱.近两年来,泰国政治进入了新一轮循环周期,政治动荡更是此起彼伏.本文重点回顾了2008年的政治危机,分析了危机的根源,并对泰国政治制度发展前景作出预测.     

枢密院在泰国政治体系中的作用:"平行国家"的视角

作为泰国政治制度的重要组成部分,枢密院在泰国政治中的作用深刻反映了国家建设与民主政治之间的关系.作为朱拉隆功改革的成果,枢密院有助于君主加强集权,从而推动泰国的国家建设.泰国民主政治进程启动后,经过普密蓬国王及前枢密院主席炳· 廷素拉暖数十年的经营,枢密院逐渐成为国王汇聚政治资源的场所.国王通过枢密院成员的社会网络缔造了其与军队、司法机构的政治联盟,形成与民选政府相对的"平行国家",但民选的他信或亲他信政府凭借选票所代表的民意支持,冲击了"平行国家"相对于民选政府所具有的权力优势.作为"平行国家"的枢纽,枢密院通过传递信号、为政变背书及支持非民选政府组建等方式来维护"平行国家"的权威及利益.     

泰国民主乱局与政治学理论界的集体失语症——泰国民主政治危机的共和主义视角

自泰国从西方引入民主制度以来,其政治制度的危机一直呈现周期性发生的情形。学术界对这一现象进行理论探讨的学者很多,但他们大多将导致这种危机周期性发生的根源,归结于泰国自身的国情复杂性方面的种种内源性因素。本文将理论探讨的重点,投射到泰国政治危机的外源性因素——即泰国从西方舶来的民主制度本身固有的制度性缺陷方面。通过深入的理论分析和对比,作者得出了泰国当前政治制度危机与现代西方民主主义理论所涵盖的谬误直接相关联的结论。而作者得出这一结论的理论参照坐标是共和主义的观念形态和制度原则与民主主义的重大差异。     

泰国他信政府"进取性"外交政策透视

他信政府上台执政三年多来,围绕恢复和发展经济这个中心任务,推行"进取性"外交政策.泰国外交关系全面发展,为国内经济恢复与发展创造了和平稳定的国际环境,开拓了国际市场,同时也使泰国的国际地位和影响得以全面提高,引起东南亚各国以及世界主要大国的关注.     

粤泰经贸关系:前景与挑战

文章从广东与泰国经贸关系的基础出发,重点分析粤泰经贸的现状和前景,并介绍了在泰国政治危机和全球金融危机双重条件下粤泰经贸关系进一步发展所面临的挑战.     

泰国2010年政治、经济和外交形势

2010年泰国政治、经济和外交形势都有较大程度改善。政治上,政府成功解决了3月至5月的国内政治危机,完成宪法修订,政府威信逐步提高;经济上,克服了政局动荡和自然灾害的消极影响,实现强劲复苏,全年GDP增速达到7.8%,创15年来最快年度经济增速;外交上,进一步深化与中国等大国的双边关系,但与柬埔寨的关系仍未得到彻底改善。     

Client‐ship and Citizenship in Latin America

This article explores the development of political relationships between people and politicians since around 1820 in Latin America. In particular, it develops the idea of client‐ship as a form of political agency and contrasts it to citizenship, linking both to 'natural' and 'historical' interpretations of inequality. The piece claims that client‐ship has dominated political relations and that its twin tools of charisma and votes‐for‐goods allows it to thrive today in the form of neo‐populism. In contrast, citizenship has been thwarted by the efforts of parties which control political agency by imposing norms of intellectual superiority and hierarchies of disdain. Throughout, I argue that issues of race, gender and class are central to political relationships which are the cultural terrain of power, and conclude that parties must begin to take citizens – and citizenship – seriously if they wish to avert a crisis of democracy.     

The paradox of natural resource abundance and widespread underdevelopment in Africa

A crisis in leadership, political instability and extreme state control of natural resources has marred Africa’s economic development over the years. these negative extremities paradoxically exist amidst a copious and generous endowment of abundant and diverse natural resources. State actors dominate the political scene, clamping down on any form of opposition to their hegemonic rules. they appear to seek to change leadership, often unconstitutionally, not for the wider benefit of the society, but to satisfy their selfish and narrow interests. The illegitimacy of the mode of change generates feelings of insecurity that compel such leaders to want to perpetuate themselves and their cronies in office. In order to finance their costly security requirements or manage the crisis they might have created, they fall back on state resources, exploiting them unsustainably to generate income and foreign exchange without channelling such earnings towards state development. this article reviews the development trajectory and challenges facing political transformations in post-independence Africa. Africa’s development stalemate is blamed on the tragedy of self-inflicted and constantly erupting political crises; failure to raise investment capital from abundant natural resources; and limited capacity of states to provide the necessary infrastructure for development. Continued reliance on development partners for development capital has not yielded desired results.     

The politics of rebellion and intervention in Ituri:the emergence of a new political complex?

This article offers an interpretation of the present conflictin Ituri based on social analysis. Other than the conventionalaccounts which depart from the presence of foreign troops onCongolese soil, reduce the war to a struggle for natural resourcesor see it as the result of age-old ethnichatreds, the authorstry to place this conflict into its social setting. The centralargument of this article is that the outbreak of violence inIturi has been the result of the exploitation, by local andregional actors, of a deeply rooted local political conflictfor access to land, economic opportunity and political power.Firstly, it is assumed that the destruction of the local socioeconomicfabric and the emergence of ethnicity as the main basis forpolitical mobilization has been the result of a long historicalprocess in which access to land, education, political positionsand economic dominance have played a crucial role. Secondly,it is asserted that, although foreign elements (i.e. the UPDFand RDF, formerly RPA) have contributed significantly to theescalation of the political crisis in Ituri, the war has alsoprovided a perfect platform for local political and economicactors to redefine their position in this new political andeconomic landscape. Eventually, this emerging political complexhas led to the development of a new political economy whichis characterized by a shift from traditional to military rule,to privatized, non-territorial networks of economic control,and to the consolidation of ethnic bonds in the economic andpolitical sphere.     

欧债危机:治理困境和应对举措

欧洲主权债务危机揭示了欧元区重债国家公共财政的不可持续,同时也将欧元区治理结构的弊端暴露无遗。欧盟受其利益多元和政治体制复杂性以及法律框架的制约,难以独立做出迅速和有效的危机应对举措。因此,债务危机的解决方式不可能立竿见影,这一软肋充分暴露在市场面前,使危机短期内可能不断反复。欧盟国家要走出债务危机,短期内需建立防火墙,控制危机大蔓延,同时大力削减公共财政赤字,尽快恢复市场信心;中期则需改进欧元区的治理结构,加强财政协调和监督;若要最终走出危机,则需提高经济竞争力,促进经济增长,促使公共财政走入良性循环。     

ECONOMIC CRISIS AND RESTRUCTURING IN SOUTH KOREA: Beyond the Free Market-Statist Debate

This paper, which examines the causes of the South Korean crisis in 1997-98 and the nature and consequences of the post-crisis restructuring process, looks critically at the neoliberal position but also at what the authors call the statist position (which celebrated and continues to defend the usefulness of industrial policy and state direction of the economy against neoliberal critics). While there are important differences between these approaches, the authors show that because both ignore the structural causes of South Korea's crisis, neither is able to explain, much less help overcome it. The paper then examines the economic, political, and social effects of the restructuring process, demonstrating how it has left the South Korean economy more dominated by foreign capital and the chaebol, and more dependent on exports and labor exploitation than before the crisis. As a result, South Korea appears headed for a new crisis. The authors conclude by highlighting ongoing worker resistance to the restructuring process and a movement-building strategy for advancing a worker/community-centered recovery and development program.     

Venezuela's Contemporary Political Crisis in Historical Context

Since the election of Hugo Chávez Frías to the Venezuelan presidency in 1998 on a platform of 'revolutionary' change, the country has been wracked by political turmoil and violence between pro- and anti-government groups. While the political crisis has been reported and portrayed as a new phenomenon that has emerged as a result of Chávez's policy programme and style of government, this article argues that the conflict has deep historical roots and that it has been shaped by the legacy of political organisation in the pre-Chávez period.     

The Indonesian crisis and beyond

The crisis in Indonesia is first and foremost a political crisis that has been exposed and complicated by the financial crisis, says Jusuf Wanandi, Chairman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta. The riots of 14 and 15 May 1998 forced President Soeharto to transfer power to his vice‐president, B. J. Habibie. However, because Habibie lacks credibility and legitimacy as a leader, he has been considered from the outset a transition figure. There is great hope that the general elections in June 1999 will solve the questions about the legitimacy of the government, and restore stability, security, and economic development throughout Indonesia, but there are still many obstacles to overcome if the elections are to be held on schedule. Furthermore, if the election results are not deemed fair, a political upheaval will likely occur. Indonesia, Wanandi says, cannot afford any further mistakes.     

机运与局限:发展型威权政体的政治合法性

发展型威权政体是第二次世界大战后新兴民族独立国家中最为常见的政体.这一政体没有太明确的意识形态,常把维护民族独立、发展经济等实用主义目标作为政府发展纲领.发展型威权政体在政治合法性方面大致经历了从正当到危机的过程.研究发展型威权政体与政治合法性的关系,有助于理解当代世界政治发展的潮流.     

Political Representation in Bailed-out Southern Europe: Greece and Portugal Compared

The emergence of the economic and financial crisis has already shown important electoral and political consequences in southern Europe. Drawing on the experience of two bailed-out countries, Greece and Portugal, we use original data collected before and after 2008 to examine how patterns of political representation have changed during this period. We argue that austerity measures have significantly affected the way MPs represent their electorates, namely in terms of policy congruence. In addition, the economic crisis has also deepened the legitimacy crisis in both countries. Finally, we find that the short-term impact of the crisis has had a greater impact on voters' attitudes than on those of their representatives.