我们为和平而来--"21世纪面临的挑战:国际维和研讨会"上的讲话

世界已经进入21世纪,国际形势正发生深刻和复杂的变化。人类进步的崇高事业既面临着历史性的机遇,也受到前所未有的挑战。从世界范围看,维护和平的力量在不断增长,促进发展的条件     

How We Feel about the Deal

Recent experimental research suggests that humans are prone to systematic errors when determining how they currently feel, imagining how they will feel about future events, remembering how they have felt about past events, and understanding the preferences that underlie their decisions. In this article, we briefly review three basic assumptions that are called into question by recent findings regarding specific kinds of errors that people are prone to make. We suggest that this line of research has important implications for negotiation theory, research, advice, and practice.     

Failed States After 9/11: What Did We Know and What Have We Learned?

This paper addresses the relationship between accumulated knowledge and U.S. policy dealing with failed states and terrorism. The central thesis is threefold: (1) that more was known about the possible linkages between failing states and terrorism than appears in pre-9/11 U.S. policies; (2) that since 9/11 some important realignment of knowledge and practice has occurred, but it remains partial and incomplete; and (3) that new knowledge, especially about the policies to sustain and promote legitimate governance, needs to be generated in order to support an effective grand strategy for addressing the threats and challenges of the twenty-first century. The paper recommends such a grand strategy and, in addition to the required new knowledge, a significant reorganization of the U.S. national security policy-making apparatus. International studies curricula appear well suited for contributing to that new knowledge and the practitioners we require.     

Comte's Caveat: How We Misunderstand Terrorism

Since the end of the Cold War, and particularly since September 11, 2001, the U.S. Government has substantially misunderstood its circumstances and has launched policies based on a compound error that has made those circumstances worse. The error consists of three parts: thinking the United States had more usable power after the Cold War when it had less; misreading the sources of apocalyptical terrorism; and failing to correct its misreading because of a bias set deep in its own political culture. Seeing the situation and the problems as they really are would lead to vast changes in both foreign and homeland security policies.     

Small States in the European Union: What Do We Know and What Would We Like to Know?

Recent developments in the European Union have created new opportunities and challenges for small member states, increasing the demand from policy-makers and diplomats for coherent and accessible analyses of the conditions and potential strategies of small states in the EU. Unfortunately, the academic literature on small states in the EU appears both diverse and fragmented: there is no agreement on how we should define a small state, what similarities we would expect to find in their foreign policies, or how they influence international relations. However, if we are to understand the challenges and possibilities currently faced by small EU member states, we need to systematise what we already know and to identify what we need to know. This article makes a modest contribution towards this goal by answering three simple questions: What is a small state in the European Union? How can we explain the behaviour of small EU member states? How do small states influence the European Union?     

Can We Negotiate and Still Be Friends?

In this essay, we address why it is that people may not feel comfortablenegotiating with friends. We hypothesize what the effects of friendshipcould be on the negotiation process and outcome, and propose also how anegotiation could impact a friendship. Finally, we suggest means for measuringthis impact. This essay, based on a discussion at the Hewlettconference, does not provide answers but instead proposes questions withthe hope that these questions will provoke future research into these areas.     

What We Have Learned About Teaching Multiparty Negotiation

This article grows out of our experience teaching an advanced course on multiparty negotiation. The main question underlying the course is: “How can experts in two‐party negotiations make themselves effective multiparty negotiators?” In this article, we describe what and how we taught, what we think worked, and what we decided to change after the first year of teaching.     

再论核禁忌

“核禁忌”作为一种道德规范是具有感召力的。然而,“核禁忌”理论本身存在诸多矛盾和谬误之处。不使用核武器并没有成为一种普遍的禁止性规范,“核禁忌”也无法削弱核威慑的意义。从历史经验看,尽管自广岛、长崎之后核武器再也没有被使用过,但许多决策者都有过使用核武器的想法。只是根据理性分析、权衡利弊之后放弃了这一选择。而从政治心理学的层面分析,“核禁忌”理论显然夸大了单一规范在决策过程中的影响力。尤其在不同的利益相互冲突的场景下,国家安全往往具有压倒性的地位。事实上,冷战后的全球核态势发展并没有受到这种禁忌的束缚,却时而出现倾向于使用核武器的势头。近年来,美国正对其核武库进行现代化升级并积极研发新型核武器。以美俄为代表的核大国也通过调整自身的核战略为可能实施的核打击大开方便之门。似是而非的“核禁忌”实际上反而增强了核威慑的必要性。虽然“核禁忌”在推动一系列核军控条约以及扩大无核武器区的建设过程中起到了一定的作用,但单纯依靠观念的力量并不能引领人类走向无核世界。只要引发地区冲突和安全困境的政治根源得不到化解,核武器作为战争的工具之一就有可能被使用。而为了确保国家安全和战略稳定,核威慑的必要性在短期内仍然无可替代。     

The "We" Problem in Teaching International Studies

This article addresses the problems that emerge when students in international studies courses approach the subject matter from the perspective of the first person plural. Whether in terms of "we,""us," or "our," many college students choose to adopt a personal perspective in discussions of international affairs. While it is natural for students to base their analysis of international studies on their personal observations and experiences, this inclination to adopt a collective first person approach detracts from the scholarly neutrality toward which students of global studies should aspire. Furthermore, a first person plural approach to course subject matter creates the false impression among students that they are all in agreement over contentious issues of global interactions and the theories employed to study them. The article concludes with suggestions for remedying the "we" problem, and offers advice for instructors who have encountered it in their own classroom.     

对世界经济形势的四个判断

2006年,国际格局调整加快,世界热点问题升温,大国协调进一步展开,中国外交硕果累累。2007年,世界将进入深度调整,国际形势总体趋向缓和,但局部紧张可能加剧,尤其是伊朗核问题有可能升级,中国外交则在面对新机遇的同时有可能遭遇更复杂的挑战。鉴此,《现代国际关系》编辑部于2007年1月6日举办“2007年国际大势前瞻”研讨会,特别邀请30多位京内外专家学者在总结、回顾2006年国际形势的基础上,着重对2007年国际形势及中国外交的变化趋势进行前瞻性分析。现将研讨会主要观点辑录如下,以期有助于读者更准确把握国际形势走向。     

从俄罗斯生态学教育中我们借鉴些什么？

俄罗斯已在中小学实施持续生态学教育。树立正确的生态观是可持续发展的先决条件,在我国学校普及生态学教育是必要的。生态学教育是树立生态观、建立生态文化的保证,生态学教育是实现可持续发展的必由之路。中国的生态学教育应该借鉴俄罗斯的生态学教育思想、观念和方法。     

重温辽宁改革30年瞬间

2008年,是中国改革开放30周年. 　　在这波澜壮阔的30年里,发生了翻天覆地的变化…… 　　在这场大变革中,中国所面临的种种困难令人百感交集.作为共和国长子的辽宁,情况更为复杂艰难. 　　如同凤凰涅槃,阵痛之后,辽宁迎来了美好的今天. 　　一组数字也许能够证明:1978年辽宁农民人均收入185.2元,2007年辽宁农民人均收入4773元;1979年辽宁GDP245亿元,2007年辽宁GDP超过1万亿元. 　　这30年来的收获,需要我们耐心梳理.……     

We NGOs: A controversial way of being and acting

While the forces of globalisation have intensified economic polarisation, diverse social movements worldwide are struggling to defend the public interest and to promote a more rights-based and sustainable form of organising human society. In allying themselves with the causes of the dispossessed at the local level, and raising international awareness of such issues, NGOs have a part to play in building a more equitable global order. However, NGOs urgently need to find better ways to link these struggles with their analysis, their action, and their ethical values.     

Forced Migration Studies: Could We Agree Just to 'Date'?

This essay questions the soundness of a scholarly shift awayfrom ‘refugee studies’ in favour of ‘forcedmigration studies’. It contends, first, that subsumingrefugee studies into the broader framework of forced migrationstudies may result in a failure to take account of the specificityof the refugee's circumstances which are defined not just bymovement to avoid the risk of harm, but by underlying socialdisfranchisement coupled with the unqualified ability of theinternational community to respond to their needs. Second, itargues that forced ‘migration’ (rather than, forexample, forced ‘migrant’) studies encourages afocus on a phenomenon rather than on the personal predicaments,needs, challenges, and rights of refugees themselves. It maythus contribute to a lack of criticality in relation to policieswhich subordinate refugee autonomy to the pursuit of more systemicconcerns. The first concern is illustrated by reference to theemergence of the ‘internally displaced persons’category, the second by reference to the determination to findand mandate ‘durable solutions’ to forced migration,including to the movement of refugees.