A Developmental Approach for Measuring the Severity of Crimes

There is widespread agreement in criminology that some crimes are more severe than others, but precise definitions of crime severity and straightforward methods for measuring it have been elusive. Public perceptions of crime severity and economic estimates of crime costs to society or willingness to pay offer a variety of metrics for the public’s perceptions of severity, but they may not accurately describe severity as reflected in offender preferences. The behavior of offenders is critical for understanding developmental progressions in criminal careers, as one may assume that typically more severe offenses are not undertaken until less severe crimes have been committed. In the present paper we propose an alternative metric of crime severity, drawing on findings from developmental criminology that indicate that more severe crimes occur after less severe crimes in the criminal life course, and a method for estimating crime severity that uses the generalized Bradley–Terry model of multiple paired comparisons. We demonstrate this approach on two samples of youthful offenders: the National Youth Survey and the RAND Adolescent Outcomes Project. The results suggest that sample-specific estimates of crime severity can be derived, that these estimates provide insight into the developmental progression of crime, and that they correspond well to crime severity rankings produced by the public.

Selectively Incapacitating Frequent Offenders: Costs and Benefits of Various Penal Scenarios

A small number of offenders are responsible for a disproportionate share of total crime. Policy makers have been seeking to reduce crime more efficiently by targeting corrections at these frequent offenders. Thus far, both macro- and micro-level research have yielded mixed results regarding the effects of these kinds of selective policies. The current study uses data from the Netherlands Criminal Career and Life-course Study to estimate the incapacitative effects of alternative selective prison policies. Using the rolling cohorts method, implementations of various penal scenarios differing in selection rate, sentence disparity and selective accuracy are simulated. Results show that it is hard for selective policies to yield a positive societal result: costs of imprisonment typically exceed benefits gained from crimes prevented.

Contrasting simulated and empirical experiments in crime prevention

This paper argues that simulated experiments of crime prevention interventions are an important class of research methods that compare favorably with empirical experiments. It draws on Popper’s demarcation between science and non-science (Conjectures and refutations: the growth of scientific knowledge. Routledge, London, 1992) and Epstein’s principle of generative explanation (Generative social science: studies in agent-based computational modeling. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2006) to show how simulated experiments can falsify theory. The paper compares simulated and empirical experiments and shows that simulations have strengths that empirical methods lack, but they also have important relative weaknesses. We identify three threats to internal validity and two forms of external validity peculiar to simulated experiments. The paper also looks at the problem of validating simulations with crime data and suggests that simulations need to mimic the error production processes involved in the creation of empirical data. It concludes by listing ways simulations can be used to improve empirical experiments and discussing the differing operating assumption of empirical and simulation experimentalists.

Does Incapacitation Reduce Crime?

Questions and answers about incapacitation abound in all discussions about criminal justice policy. They are among the most pressing of all research issues, yet estimates about the incapacitation effect on crime vary considerably, and most are based on very old and incomplete estimates of the longitudinal pattern of criminal careers. This paper provides an overview of the incapacitation issue, highlights information on recent estimates of criminal careers that are useful to the incapacitation model, and outlines an ambitious research agenda for continued and expanded work on incapacitation and crime that centers on developing better estimates of the characteristics of criminal careers and their relevance to policy choices.

A Comparison of Chinese and US College Students’ Crime and Crime Control Views

While there is a growing trend to look at criminal justice issues from an international perspective, there has been little literature examining differences in views of crime, criminals, punishment, and treatment between the citizens of the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America. Using data from 524 students at a large university in China and 484 students from a large public university in the USA this study found that, while US respondents were more likely to agree that crime was high in their country, Chinese respondents were more likely to feel that crime was the most serious social problem facing their society. Chinese respondents were more supportive of the death penalty for serious crimes but also were more supportive of rehabilitation of offenders in general. In addition, the study found similarities between students from the two countries in their views. The reasons behind the differences and similarities were explored.

Interviewing serious offenders: Ms. Egghead meets Mr. Gumshoe

Organised crime, due to its intricate nature, is a very challenging as well as less accessible research field. Although difficult to conduct a methodical research on this topic, organised crime, nevertheless, offers a unique opportunity to utilise an interdisciplinary research methodology. This paper describes (multiple) triangulation as an appropriate method for researching the role of culture in the advancement of ethnic Albanian organised crime groups in Europe. Triangulation, for the purpose of the described project, has been used to obtain confirmation of findings through convergence of different perspectives. Interviewing offenders is one of the research methods more thoroughly explained in this paper. The paper too explores some advantages of snowball technique used for interviewing less accessible research subjects. It also discusses various dilemmas, security-related or not, researchers are faced with when intending to interview serious offenders.

Does neighborhood watch reduce crime? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Neighborhood watch grew out of a movement in the USA during the late 1960s that promoted greater involvement of citizens in the prevention of crime. Recent estimates suggest that over a quarter of the UK population and over 40% of the US population live in areas covered by neighborhood watch schemes. The current paper presents the results of a recent systematic review of evaluations of neighborhood watch. The main findings of the narrative review were that about half of the schemes evaluated showed that neighborhood watch was effective in reducing crime, with most of the other evaluations having uncertain effects. The main findings of the meta-analysis were that 15 of the 18 studies provided evidence that neighborhood watch reduced crime. While the results of the review are encouraging, it was concluded that more high-quality research needs to be done to help explain why study variations exist.

The Silence of the Lambdas: Deterring Incapacitation Research

This essay provides an economist’s perspective on criminological research into incapacitation effects on crime. Our central argument is that criminologists would do well to substantially scale back the enterprise of trying to estimate the various behavioral parameters central to a micro-level approach to measuring incapacitation effects, including the annual rate of offending outside of prison (λ) and the lengths of criminal careers. One problem with this line of research is practical: for example, mean estimates of self-reported criminal activity by incarcerated prisoners are quite sensitive to reports by the most criminally active offenders. But the larger concern is conceptual—the incapacitation effects from a given change in sentencing policy may be undermined by the possibility of replacement effects, and at the same time omit other benefits that may arise from deterrent effects on crime. A more promising approach is to identify plausibly exogenous changes in sentencing policy in order to estimate the net impact on crime from the combined effects of incapacitation, deterrence and replacement.

Simulation for Theory Testing and Experimentation: An Example Using Routine Activity Theory and Street Robbery

Achieving a better understanding of the crime event in its spatio-temporal context is an important research area in criminology with major implications for improving policy and developing effective crime prevention strategies. However, significant barriers related to data and methods exist for conducting this type of research. The research requires micro-level data about individual behavior that is difficult to obtain and methods capable of modeling the dynamic, spatio-temporal interaction of offenders, victims, and potential guardians at the micro level. This paper presents simulation modeling as a method for addressing these challenges. Specifically, agent-based modeling, when integrated with geographic information systems, offers the ability to model individual behavior within a real environment. The method is demonstrated by operationalizing and testing routine activity theory as it applies to the crime of street robbery. Model results indicate strong support for the basic premise of routine activity theory; as time spent away from home increases, crime will increase. The strength of the method is in providing a research platform for translating theory into models that can be discussed, shared, tested and enhanced with the goal of building scientific knowledge.

White collar crime,consumers and victimization

Consumers have long been recognized as one of the major groups of victims of white collar and corporate crime, although many of the activities which harm them are not widely regarded as ‘crime’. They tend to attract less publicity, and have been subject to less academic research, particularly in comparison with major financial frauds or cases involving mass harms. Moreover, there has been a tendency to view consumers as a relatively undifferentiated group, all of whom are likely to be victimized. This article identifies a wide range of crimes which affect consumers and explores some of the characteristics of victims and offenders, arguing that while all consumers are at risk, the impact of consumer crime, like other forms of crime, reflects wider patterns of structural inequality and falls most severely on the most disadvantaged.

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Using State Child Labor Laws to Identify the Causal Effect of Youth Employment on Deviant Behavior and Academic Achievement

On the basis of prior research findings that employed youth, and especially intensively employed youth, have higher rates of delinquent behavior and lower academic achievement, scholars have called for limits on the maximum number of hours per week that teenagers are allowed to work. We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to assess the claim that employment and work hours are causally related to adolescent problem behavior. We utilize a change model with age-graded child labor laws governing the number of hours per week allowed during the school year as instrumental variables. We find that these work laws lead to additional number of hours worked by youth, which then lead to increased high school dropout but decreased delinquency. Although counterintuitive, this result is consistent with existing evidence about the effect of employment on crime for adults and the impact of dropout on youth crime.

Measuring corporate environmental crime rates: progress and problems

The problem of corporate crime rates has been the subject of debate, speculation and operationalization for decades, largely stemming from the complexity of measuring this type of crime. Examining corporate environmental crime poses challenges and creates opportunities for advancing the discussion of corporate crime rates, but criminologists are less familiar with environmental data. In the current paper, we review the strengths and weaknesses of existing environmental data that can be used to construct the components of an environmental crime rate. We also present a corporate environmental crime rate derived from data on violations of the Clean Water Act and describe problems with using it in real world data. Implications for theory, practice and future research are discussed.

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The benefit and cost of prison in the UK. The results of a model of lifetime re-offending

With prisons in the UK reaching full capacity, and with similar trends in other European countries and the USA, there is much political debate about the efficacy of prison and community sentences. This paper aims to inform this debate by testing the hypothesis that prisons are an effective and efficient way of reducing re-offending. A rapid review of effectiveness studies was performed to determine the relative impact of prison and community sentences on re-offending. An economic analysis was undertaken to transform the estimates of effect into estimates of the economic efficiency of alternative sentencing options in the context of the UK. When compared with standard prison sentences, a number of community-based interventions and enhancements of standard prison sentences were found to save money, both for the public sector and for society more broadly. Diverting adult offenders from standard prison sentences to alternative interventions saves the UK public sector between ￡19,000 and ￡88,000 per offender. When victim costs are considered, diverting offenders from standard prison sentences saves UK society between ￡17,500 and ￡203,000 per offender. It was concluded that standard prison sentences are not an economically efficient means for reducing re-offending.

Community Variation in Crime Clearance: A Multilevel Analysis with Comments on Assessing Police Performance

We use data from the Province of Quebec to examine how the characteristics of a crime and the community context in which it occurs affect the likelihood that it will be cleared by the police. Based on a sample of 362,295 crime incidents clustered in 93 communities, multilevel analyses reveal that the police are more likely to clear crimes in small communities than in large urban areas and in communities with greater levels of poverty. Workload is not very important, having only a slight effect on the clearance of misdemeanors. The fact that offenders are much more likely to evade the law in some communities than others may have important implications for deterrence. Two methods to improve the evaluation of police departments at crime clearance are also proposed.

An experimental evaluation of teen courts

Teen Court (TC) is a juvenile diversion program designed to prevent the formal processing of first-time juvenile offenders within the juvenile justice system. TC instead utilizes informal processing and sanctions in order to prevent future offending. Despite its widespread popularity throughout the United States of America, little rigorous research has been conducted on the effectiveness of the TC model for reducing recidivism. Using an experimental design, this study examined the effectiveness of TC in reducing recidivism and improving the attitudes and opinions of juvenile offenders in comparison with a control group of youth who were formally processed. Self-reported delinquency was higher for those youth who participated in TC. TC youth were also found to have significantly lower scores on a scale of belief in conventional rules than had youth who were processed in the Department of Juveniles Services. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Criminal victimization in contemporary China: a review of the evidence and challenges for future research

The rapid economic growth in China over recent decades has been accompanied by higher levels of crime, but there have been few studies of the Chinese experience of criminal victimization. A recent victimization survey of a representative sample of households in Tianjin represents a major effort to fill this gap in the literature. The present paper reviews the research based on the Tianjin survey along with other studies of crime and criminal victimization in China that have been published since 1990. We summarize the major findings, discuss the theoretical perspectives and methodological strategies that have been applied, identify the limitations of the research to date, and offer suggestions for future research.

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